International raiders have dominated the Melbourne Cup in recent years, but Australian tipster The Wolf fancies a local stayer to strike on Tuesday.
NOVEMBER 4, 2019
1. Cross Counter
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Weight: 57.5kg
Barrier: 5
Impressive 2018 winner who goes up 6.5kgs from last year’s weight. His 2019 staying form just behind leading European stayer Stradivarius has been sound, but his weight in comparison to others here makes it difficult for him to win again. Genuine class stayer who I think is a strong top ten chance despite weight differentials and worth considering for multiples.
2. Mer De Glace
Trainer: Hisahi Shimizu
Jockey: Damian Lane
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 2
Won the 2019 Caulfield Cup in emphatic fashion at first attempt beyond 2200m. His sire (Rulership) was a middle distance galloper so there is a query on him over the 3200m and I’m prepared to take him on.
3. Master Of Reality
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 1
Trained by the same man as the 2017 winner (Rekindling), this 4yo Frankel gelding has been competitive around Southern France, Mustajeer, Twilight Payment and even Cross Counter in 2800m races this year, including on soft going. However, he came into his own in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot (4000m, June 2019) when he beat Cross Counter home as a rank outsider (66-1) and finished 1L behind the superstar Stradivarius. May lack the tactical speed of some others but should at least run out a genuine 3200m. Outside chance.
4. Mirage Dancer
Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
Jockey: Ben Melham
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 13
This 5yo son of Frankel ran well in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 3rd, however 12 of his 17 starts have been over 2400m and he has never run further than that. Avoided the interference at Caulfield and stuck on gamely, but several others shape as being more likely to run out a stronger two miles.
5. Southern France
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 26
A 4yo who brings strong albeit mixed form to Australia and is now in the hands of Ciaron Maher & David Eustace. He held on for 3rd at equal weights in last year’s English St Leger, beating Cross Counter, Master of Reality & Southern France there. Failed in his only 3200m run in the Goodwood Cup (Cross Counter 7L ahead of him). Can mix his form, but has been competitive with a few of the internationals. A genuine 3200m is a query.
6. Hunting Horn
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 11
Compact and fit European pacemaker who has been brought to Australia by Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien for a throw at the stumps. Lovely Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) win when suited at the weights, but several others appeal more.
7. Latrobe
Trainer: Joseph O’brien
Jockey: James Mcdonald
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 22
Latrobe is another who 2017 winning trainer Joseph O’Brien puts the final polish on. He ran 5L 6th behind Search for A Song in the Irish St Leger and his recent form closely aligns with Twilight Payment, so there should not be such a price differential between them. He is another who has not run beyond 2800m and whilst Team Williams rates him highly, I don’t see him as a genuine winning chance.
8. Mustajeer
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 6
Impressive winner of the Sky Bet Ebor (2800m) in August 2019. The 2017 Melbourne Cup runner up Heartbreak City was an Ebor winner that year and it has in the recent past been a useful form reference. He ran 2L 6th in the Caulfield Cup, but did not cop the interference of several other runners, including a few who finished ahead of him. Outside chance of running top 5, but I’d be surprised if he won.
9. Rostropovich
Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 12
Ran 5th in last year’s race but is not tracking anywhere nearly as well this year. It is an emphatic ‘no’ from me.
10. Twilight Payment
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 19
The 6yo Teofilo gelding finished 7th (6L) in a genuinely run G1 Irish St Leger. Beat the more fancied Latrobe, Southern France and Mustajeer in the Curragh Cup (2800m). He is having ony his 5th start in 2019 and has been mixing it with many of these but is a clear query over 3200m, especially if there is any genuine pace in the race. No.
11. Finche
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Kerrin Mcevoy
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 4
Returned as a gelding in 2019, this Frankel 6yo has had a solid lead-up after his 4th in the 2018 race. Ran a strong 2nd in the Turnbull before a sound 4th in the Caulfield Cup after racing wide throughout. Can’t really fault his preparation, one to include in wider multiples.
12. Prince Of Arran
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Jockey: Michael Walker
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 8
Thriving in our racing conditions, as indoctrinated ‘Aussie’ Red Cadeaux did for several years here. Two wins, a 2nd and a 3rd from four local starts in total and he drops 4kgs from his Geelong Cup win. Gets 5.5kgs in his favour from Cross Counter from last year’s race. An irresistible lightweight chance and a value each way bet.
13. Raymond Tusk
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 3
The 4yo ran 2L 4th behind Mustajeer in the Ebor, but carried 60.5kgs. Gets a 2kgs swing on Mustajeer from that race. Before that, he finished 8.5L behind Stradivarius in the Ascot Cup (4000m). He’s possibly a little short on class for this, but he drops a massive weight from the Ebor and could run a bold race. However, a win would surprise.
14. Downdraft
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: John Allen
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 15
The 4yo ran home strongly in the Lexus to gain his spot with style and he now drops 5.5kgs from that. He ran 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup after leading and has not run beyond 2800m. Carries good form into the race, but a win would surprise.
15. Magic Wand
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 24
High quality Galileo mare who ran a game 4th in the Cox Plate after leading. Has been unimpressive in two efforts at 2400m and has not run further. May run two miles on breeding, but she looks a clear distance query despite her obvious class. She has also not had a proper spell in 2019 and now with barrier 24, I cannot have her winning this.
16. Neufbosc
Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 23
His 2019 Australian form has been seriously underwhelming after some promising European efforts last year. Wouldn’t win if he started on Monday from the 2500m.
17. Sound
Trainer: Mike Moroney
Jockey: James Winks
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 10
The German-bred stayer was somewhat unlucky in his 4L 10th in the Caulfield Cup. I’m prepared to work well around him in this though, having already failed twice over 3200m, once in a weaker Sydney Cup (5L 8th behind Shraaoh) and also in last year’s race, when he languished a dismal 27L 18th behind Cross Counter.
18. Surprise Baby
Trainer: Paul Preusker
Jockey: Jordan Childs
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 20
Won the Bart Cummings (2500m) to gain entry where he beat Supernova and Wolfe, which is not vintage form but he also drops 3.5kgs here. His sire (Shocking) won the 2009 race and he shapes as though he will get the trip. Genuine lightweight hope.
19. Constantinople
Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 7
Promising northern hemisphere 3yo who has had an almost identical lead-up program to Cross Counter’s in 2018. Ran 2nd in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York behind leading stayer Logician (2400m), where he raced erratically despite powering to the line. The addition of winkers in the Caulfield Cup appeared to suit as he ran purposefully and straight, despite copping considerable interference. Looks as if Flemington will suit to a tee and with a lightweight and world class jockey, he will take a power of beating.
20. Il Paradiso
Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 17
Another northern hemisphere Galileo 3yo, who ran a strong 3200m race behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee two months ago, which is A-Grade form. Faded slightly in the English St Leger but stuck to his task gamely in a strongly run race. The last two races have been won by northern hemisphere 3yo’s with similar racing profiles. A good chance to run a place with his light weight.
21. Steel Prince
Trainer: Anthony Freedman
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 16
Has held a Melbourne Cup ‘golden ticket’ since winning the Andrew Ramsden in May, but little seems to have gone right since. Was scratched at the gates in the Herbert Power then ran in the Geelong Cup like a horse who needed the run. His past form has been comparable to Surprise Baby but he has had the slight setback. Looking around him.
22. The Chosen One
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Tim Clark
Weight: 52kg
Barrier: 18
Not my chosen one. Shouldn’t be yours either.
23. Vow And Declare
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Craig Williams
Weight: 52kg
Barrier: 21
Genuine stayer who brought residual fitness into the Spring after his strong Tattersalls Cup win in June (3000m, by 3.5L). He was impressive in the Turnbull, running on into 4th and then surged into 2nd in the Caulfield Cup after being crowded a furlong out. An improved galloper who looks tailor-made for the wider expanses of Flemington and he should eat up the 3200m. Our best local hope.
24. Youngstar
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Weight: 52kg
Barrier: 9
The 5yo won the Group 1 as a 3yo in the Queensland Oaks, back in 2018 and ran a solid sixth last year, albeit when in better form. Outside top ten chance at best.
Verdict:
The two miles at Flemington will suit VOW AND DECLARE and Constantinople down to the ground. Prince Of Arran has embraced Australia like the cane toad, Il Paradiso profiles like the last two winners and Surprise Baby will see out the trip strongly.
1. Vow And Declare
2. Constantinople
3. Prince Of Arran
4. Il Paradiso
5. Surprise Baby
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