Calculating odds question
- rob faux
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
It doesn't matter .....same diff if only one arrives .....and the aggregate odds,on the total staked, is evens.
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- rob faux
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
Interesting angle Hibs,would THAT not depend on more factors?
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- Solotrama
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
yes it does not matter if its a dutch or seperate bets on different events.
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- Jack Dash
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
Having read the replies, I think maybe I can rephrase the question to show what I'm trying to get at.
Say you own two runners on the day, they are both even money.
R1000 on each of them would get on of the following outcomes:
A. Both win...R2000 profit
B. one wins..win 1000 and lose 1000, R0.00
C. Neither win, lose R2000
So I want to say to my bookmaker, what are the odds for at least one of them win?
Bear in mind if both win it is the same as if one wins to the bookmaker.
ps I am beginning to guess it might be a variation of a quarter of both added
3/1 3/1 = 15/10
E. E = 5/10
Say you own two runners on the day, they are both even money.
R1000 on each of them would get on of the following outcomes:
A. Both win...R2000 profit
B. one wins..win 1000 and lose 1000, R0.00
C. Neither win, lose R2000
So I want to say to my bookmaker, what are the odds for at least one of them win?
Bear in mind if both win it is the same as if one wins to the bookmaker.
ps I am beginning to guess it might be a variation of a quarter of both added
3/1 3/1 = 15/10
E. E = 5/10
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- rob faux
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
Bugger Off Jack........lol,you've already caused more damage to my head than a bottle of Mainstay last night........lol.
If it is a serious request I know somebody who is a whizz with probability calcs ,but he is not available for a week or two,so cant help today.
If it is a serious request I know somebody who is a whizz with probability calcs ,but he is not available for a week or two,so cant help today.
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- rob faux
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
Mainstay must be very good for focus,cos I can't believe how long it has taken me to get anywhere near "lateral" mode.
I am ashamed to say I have been trying to figure out your comment "bear in mind if both win.....etc." but I got it eventually.
That aspect complicates the odds dramatically cos the ONLY result you betting on is AT LEAST 1 to win.(if both win you don't double up but does not negate the "at least 1 to win!)
Personally I would just dutch them ,cos I wouldn't have a clue how to assess the odds value,but I am going to turn it into a teaser for the fundi!
I am ashamed to say I have been trying to figure out your comment "bear in mind if both win.....etc." but I got it eventually.
That aspect complicates the odds dramatically cos the ONLY result you betting on is AT LEAST 1 to win.(if both win you don't double up but does not negate the "at least 1 to win!)
Personally I would just dutch them ,cos I wouldn't have a clue how to assess the odds value,but I am going to turn it into a teaser for the fundi!
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- Harris
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
I think this is the answer. If a horse is 3/1 to win then it is 1/3 not to win. So if you take both horses not to win its 1/3 x 1/3 that comes to 7.6/10. So I would say the odds of either 1 or both horses to win is the corollary 10/7.6 or 13.1/10.
I hope I am right !(
)
I hope I am right !(

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- Solotrama
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
no no this is too much .
Jack back them individualy !
Jack back them individualy !
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- rob faux
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
Yeah,and stop if the first one wins....lol
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- Titch
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
You could get 5/10 a place if the horse is 3/1 as well....any idea what the price would be for 1 of them to place?? .....Jus Kiddin
Give everything but up!
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- Titch
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- PeterD
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Re: Re: Calculating odds question
13 years 5 months ago
Hi
There are 4 possible outcomes. The sum of the probabilities of all 4 is 100%
1.A and B both win- if they are both 3/1 then the odds are 15/1- probability is 6.25%
2.A and B both lose- the probability of this is 56.25%
3. A wins and b loses- the probability of this is 18.75%
4. A loses and B wins- the probability of this is also 18.75%
The probability of at least one winning is thus 43.75%
The odds therefore of at least one winning are approx 12/10
For 2 even- money shots
1. 25%
2. 25%
3. 25%
4. 25%
Prob of at least one winning is 75%
Hence odds of approx 1/5
There are 4 possible outcomes. The sum of the probabilities of all 4 is 100%
1.A and B both win- if they are both 3/1 then the odds are 15/1- probability is 6.25%
2.A and B both lose- the probability of this is 56.25%
3. A wins and b loses- the probability of this is 18.75%
4. A loses and B wins- the probability of this is also 18.75%
The probability of at least one winning is thus 43.75%
The odds therefore of at least one winning are approx 12/10
For 2 even- money shots
1. 25%
2. 25%
3. 25%
4. 25%
Prob of at least one winning is 75%
Hence odds of approx 1/5
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