SUPER 15 - WEEK BY WEEK

Rugby TMO to get more power

Wellington - Rugby's television referees will be given wider powers under a series of rule changes that will be implemented later this year.

The amendments, which were announced on Tuesday by the International Rugby Board, will also set a 90-second limit for conversion attempts and restrict the amount of time the ball can be held at the back of a ruck.

The IRB says the changes will be implemented on a trial basis from August in the northern hemisphere and from January in the southern, applying at domestic and international level.

The most far-reaching of the changes concerns the powers given to television match officials, who will now be able to rule on foul play and on incidents which occur inside the field of play in the lead-up to a try.

Under current rules, TMOs can only rule on events which occur in-goal and in the act of scoring a try. They will now be able to advise the referee on incidents which may have occurred in the field of play in the lead-up to a try being scored.

TMOs will also be able to advise referees on incidents of foul play.

In other changes, conversion kicks will have to be completed within 90 seconds of a try being awarded.

At rucks, the ball will have to be used within five seconds of becoming available at the back of a ruck after the referee has instructed a team to "use it."

When the ball goes into touch from a knock-on, the non-offending team will have the choice of a lineout at the point the ball crossed the touchline or a scrum where the knock-on occurred.

Quick lineouts will be able to be taken by a player anywhere outside the field of play between the line of touch and the players' goal line. When a penalty or free kick is awarded at a lineout, the non-offending team will have the choice of a further lineout at which it will have the throw-in.

The TMO changes will be part of three specific additional tries implemented by the IRB and could be in operation in Test matches by November.

A trial has also been sanctioned for the November Test window which will allow international teams to nominate eight replacements in their match-day squad, rather than the current seven. The eighth player must be a qualified front-rower.

The law changes have come from recommendations of the IRB's independent Laws Representative Group, which comprises representatives from each of the 10 tier-one nations and the IRB Rugby Committee.

The IRB said extensive evaluation of the amendments had already taken place at Cambridge and Stellenbosch Universities.

"The Laws Representative Group were encouraged by the outcomes of the initial trials in Cambridge and Stellenbosch," IRB chairman Bernard Lapasset said. "The next step is a global trial with full buy-in and which has been approved by council on the basis that the amendments can have a positive effect on the playing of the game.

The global trials are not fait accompli. It is essential at the end of the global trial process that decisions made are in the best interest of rugby worldwide."

The five Law amendments to be trialled globally are:

1. Law 16.7 (Ruck): The ball has to be used within five seconds of it being made available at the back of a ruck following a warning from the referee to “use it”. Sanction – Scrum.

2. 19.2 (b) (Quick Throw-In) For a quick throw in, the player may be anywhere outside the field of play between the line of touch and the player’s goal line.

3. 19.4 (who throws in) When the ball goes into touch from a knock-on, the non-offending team will be offered the choice of a lineout at the point the ball crossed the touch line; or a scrum at the place of the knock-on. The non-offending team may exercise this option by taking a quick throw-in.

4. 21.4 Penalty and free kick options and requirements: Lineout alternative. A team awarded a penalty or a free kick at a lineout may choose a further lineout, they throw in. This is in addition to the scrum option.

5. A conversion kick must be completed within one minute 30 seconds from the time that a try has been awarded.

In addition, the IRB approved three specific additional trials:

1. To extend the jurisdiction of the TMO to incidents within the field of play that have led to the scoring of a try and foul play in the field of play.

2. International teams to nominate up to eight replacements in the match day squad for Test matches, the additional player must be a qualified front row player.

3. Sevens teams to nominate up to five replacements/substitutes.


The IRB also approved further consideration for the ongoing review of the scrum. The amendment relates to the engagement sequence and will see the referee call “crouch” then “touch”. The front rows crouch then touch and using outside arm each prop touches the point of the opposing prop’s outside shoulder. The props then withdraw their arms. The referee will then call “set” when the front rows are ready. The front rows may then set the scrum.

Some good changes. Technology is there so why not use it. How often is there a forward pass in the build up to a try. Now the ref can check to make sure. Reffing is not easy you see the game from a different perspective than us with a birds eye view. Football can take a leaf out of Rugby's book. (tu)

WEEK 13

We move into the last quarter of the round robin and matters are really starting to heat up :


HURRICANES ( Outright 33/1) 5/10 vs BRUMBIES ( Outright 16/1 ) 18/10

The Hurricanes – who were quoted at 100/1 a fortnight ago – are at home to the Australian conference leading Brumbies.

Clearly home ground favours the Hurricanes but the Brumbies have proved to be a remarkably tough nut to crack this season. Furthermore Australian sides have not exactly embarrassed themselves away from home in NZ as has sometimes been the case in previous seasons.

The Hurricanes can probably regard themselves as slightly fortunate to have beaten the leg weary Highlanders last week so recent form might border on the flattering.

I really do not have a strong opinion on this match so am going to call it as a coin toss.


HIGHLANDERS ( Outright 33/1 ) 21/20 vs BULLS ( Outright 9/2 ) 17/20

Last week I ended up with egg on my face when the Bulls managed to edge out the Waratahs. I confidently expected the home side – despite starting as the outsiders – to win. Close but no cigar.

This week I am equally confident that the Highlanders will beat the Bulls and regard the 21/20 as one of the best offers of the weekend.

The Highlanders have a good record against the Bulls – even in recent seasons when they were anchored in the bottom half of the table and the Bulls were hunting the title.

I reason that the Highlanders have had a full additional week to recover from their African adventures and should be fresh enough to match the Bulls up front whilst outclassing them behind the scrum.

The Highlanders also prefer a ‘ball in hand’ approach which means the Bulls should get nothing like the amount of aimless kicking directed down their throats that the Waratahs gifted them last week.

Highlanders for me.





CRUSADERS ( Outright 28/10 ) 1/5 vs BLUES ( Outright 500/1 ) 4/1

After the wake up call from the Rebels last week you can probably take any price that the Crusaders will come out snorting.

It may require a good drag from a peace pipe to envisage a Blues win but that may not be as unlikely a possibility as first glance would suggest.

Last week the Blues broke their losing sequence against the Lions. Hardly gilt edged form! Subsequently a number of Blues players have received somewhat unwarranted call ups to the wider All Blacks’ squad – probably with the proviso that they had better start showing radical improvement or face being jettisoned from future national plans.

I’m siding with the Crusaders – who are probably the biggest false favourites at 28/10 in Super Rugby history right now – but would happily cheer home the Blues if they come to play.

REDS (Outright 12/1) 1/12 vs LIONS (Outright 1000/1) 7/1

If you have been accumulating 20/1 about the Reds in recent weeks you must be feeling a warm flicker of anticipation.

This side is coming and coming hard into contention. Although they are unlikely to enjoy the luxury of home advantage in the playoffs they will definitely be a side that few would wish to meet in the elimination phases.

Quade Cooper returns to the pivot position against the hapless Lions.

I’m not going to dwell on the relative strengths of the two sides but I am predicting a Reds win with every likelihood of a 4 try bonus point.

CHEETAHS (Outright 500/1) 14/10 vs SHARKS (Outright 20/1) 13/20

Examination of OVERALL matches played between these two sides in Bloemfontein indicates that this is a banana peel ground for the Sharks.

The Cheetahs were roused into action last week in the second half against the Stormers and will need to maintain that belligerence if they are to upset the visitors.

The Sharks lack something this season and the market feels the same way – there is 20/1 aplenty on offer.

If you put a gun to my head I would bet Cheetahs, Draw, Sharks in that order of preference. Instead I will just watch.





STORMERS (Outright 3/1) 2/7 vs WARATAHS (Outright 100/1) 3/1

Collateral form through the Bulls suggests the Stormers should have a match on their hands.

Apart from the best defence in the competition the Stormers probably also deserve an award for producing the most boring and unattractive rugby in the history of Super Rugby. If this is the level they have to stoop to why would anyone want to see them win the competition unless they are deluded home supporters?

Last week they scraped through against the Cheetahs. On that form there are half a dozen sides that could have/ would have beaten them. We’ll cut them some slack on the back of ‘it was a SA derby’.

But if they lose this weekend you cannot say they weren’t flying a danger flag seven days earlier.

This is probably going to be quite an arm wrestle as the Waratahs are as close to the Bulls in style as you will find outside of Pretoria. And the Bulls are a side that Cape teams often come up short against.

The Stormers front row and loose trio are becoming cause for concern as injuries mount. Rocky Elsom showed signs last weekend of returning to form.

This could be a nailbiter. Against my better judgement I am calling it for the Stormers with the strong feeling that their good fortune will shortly run out if their form does not improve substantially.


WESTERN FORCE (1000/1) 1/1 vs REBELS (9/10)

The market calls this a virtual coin toss. So if you get it right there is good money to be won.

There is a temptation to call a DRAW but, as suggested previously, rugby draws don’t often come from well matched sides but rather from mismatches.

The Force have had to travel home and were well and truly caned by the Sharks last week. The Rebels either take strength from their win over the Crusaders or believe they have done their work for the season and flop accordingly.

The common denominator is that neither side are particularly consistent. So you have a chance to ‘get out’ on either side if your previous selections over the weekend have gone belly up.

I give it to the Rebels simply because I believe they have the potential to score tries with their backline whereas the home side have a proven record of failure with the possession they have enjoyed this season.

I think the value bet of the weekend is the Blues. At 4 to 1 its worth a splash, if for nothing else but greed! They got a very classy but very under performing side, and its a NZ derby. So maybe the boys will finally play some rugby.... they did beat the bulls at home... their coach must reapply for his job.. however NoNu (spelling!!) Is looking like a well fed Wepu...
If a 100 to 1 no hoper can win the last race at the Vaal today ... it might just be possible

Multiple (2 Legs)

Leg 1

RUGBY > SUPER 15(HURRICANES@HOME)
HURRICANES vs BRUMBIES
18-May-2012 09:35
HURRICANES / BRUMBIES 0.45 Home


Leg 2

RUGBY > SUPER 15(REDS@HOME)
REDS vs LIONS
19-May-2012 11:40
REDS (-13.5) / LIONS (+13.5) 0.45 Home


11-10

double your money

Conrad Smith, Cory Jane & Andre Taylor.Very exciting play makers. The way the Canes came back against the Highlanders and home advantage and the Brumbies without Lealiifano and coming off a rest......Canes by 7

For me the best bet of the weekend is the Rebels. Beale is hitting top form and they are starting to play as a team. They won't rest on their laurels as this for them is a big local derby. The Force are coming off a massive hiding to the in and out Sharks and it is never easy the match after the long trip back from SA. At 9/10 it is worth a good bet, if you want slightly better odds add the Stormers to make it a 15/10 double. (tu)

Well done Sharks & Stormers. But the way you play, none of you will make it.

HURRICANES vs BRUMBIES

My concerns that the Brumbies are a tough nut to crack and that the Hurricanes’ previous weeks’ win against the Highlanders was a little flattering were well founded.

After taking a 25-16 lead midway through the second half the Hurricanes were unable to counter an impressive Brumbies comeback and were shut out of the match in the last 20 minutes with only the consolation of a 4 try bonus point when a full house 5 pointer appeared to be beckoning.

The Brumbies banked the full house and tightened their grip at the top of the Australian conference with a precious away win.


HIGHLANDERS vs BULLS

The Bulls demonstrated two things against the Highlanders :

1.) They have little or nothing to fear from any of the other sides in the South African conference.

2.) South African sides cannot multi task – ie they either produce a brilliant defensive performance or an excellent attacking performance. But not both. And they certainly seem to lack the skill to switch from defense to attack during the course of a single play.

In fact most SA sides appear so over coached and structured that they almost need to convene a meeting at the conclusion of each play to read through their play list and check ‘yardage’ ( lol ) whereafter they decide what to do next. But spontaneous brilliance you will definitely not find in SA rugby teams.

Nonetheless this was a really tough match for both sides and was contested without compromise for the full 80 minutes. But the Highlanders picked up where they last left off with the Bulls in beating them.

Both sides should be in no doubt that they were in a rugby match tomorrow morning.


CRUSADERS vs BLUES


Spank. Spank. Spank. That pretty much summed up this match. Tempting though it might be to announce some sort of revival from the Crusaders it should be noted that they beat a team that cannot be accused of having thumped the Lions a week earlier; and we all know how poor the Lions are.

Nevertheless a 5 pointer is a 5 pointer although one suspects the real damage to the Crusaders’ aspirations of being cosily positioned for the run in might have been blown against the Rebels seven days ago.

REDS vs LIONS

Another clubbing for the Lions. Don’t be fooled by the score – this match was over the moment the Reds banked their 4 try bonus point and started hooking their leading players.

Maybe the Western Force will be more to their taste next week. But I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it.


CHEETAHS vs SHARKS


The Sharks overcame their Bloemfontein hoodoo to return home with a full house of points and continue their rise up the table.

The home side showed flashes of resistance but clearly lack the necessary depth to withstand a side which can produce a steady stream of international substitutes off the bench.

Bismarck Du Plessis would be advised to review his on field conduct as he appears to be reading too much of his own adoring press. His play ranges from brilliant through thuggish to just plain brain dead and he is odds on to deliver a blooper at a critical moment in a test match sooner rather than later.


STORMERS vs WARATAHS

After producing small flashes of rugby in between the usual skopfest the Stormers produced another listless second half display and plodded home against the Waratahs.

Had the visitors spent less time advising the referee and more time shaping their own play this match might have had a different outcome.

Some of the Stormers option taking was diabolical and is no credit to their coaching staff; which clearly plans to direct the side to hoof its way to a Super Rugby final. If possible. The Stormers remain the best advert for soccer you are likely to see.


REBELS vs WESTERN FORCE

If you accept that the overall standard of the encounter barely rose above Vodacom Cup class then it was, at least, quite entertaining.

Rebels escaped with full points. The Force were pretty much the architects of their own defeat.

As is often the case with cellar dwellers each side endeavoured to open up a points break on the other only to give it away with unnecessary errors and penalties.

CHIEFS (5/1 Long Term) 5/10 vs BULLS (6/1 Long Term) 18/10

Three weeks ago I confidently predicted that the Bulls would lose three successive matches in a row against the Waratahs, Highlanders & Chiefs.

They somewhat fortuitously won the first against the Waratahs and then lost against the Highlanders. Against the Waratahs they played worse than I expected and won whereas against the Highlanders they played far better than I expected and lost! So much for the vagaries of sport.

There is little to suggest that they will be able to overcome a vastly improved Chiefs side this week. Unless they have learned the lessons of their loss against the Highlanders and apply these lessons to the Chiefs.

Fact is – the Bulls could win this match IF ONLY they would show more confidence in their ability to carry and attack with ball in hand. Unfortunately I fear they have the word SKOP indelibly imprinted in their DNA and are, once again, likely to hoof away far too much ball in the hope that the recipient will make handling errors and/or the bounce will favour the chasers.

It will certainly be a tough encounter but I pick the Chiefs to edge it.


HURRICANES (100/1 long Term ) 1/4 vs REBELS (1000/1 long Term) 33/10

Is there anything really at stake here? Possibly a 5 pointer will assist the Hurricanes’ cause. It would appear to be a minimum requirement to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Rebels are certainly improving but I get the feeling that the Hurricanes will do the business this weekend.



BLUES (1000/1 Long Term) 16/10 vs HIGHLANDERS (25/1 Long Term) 11/20

I remain circumspect when dealing with any match involving the Blues as it is still difficult to accept that a side so loaded with talent has only managed two wins this whole season.

On the other hand the Highlanders have everything to play for and will, in all likelihood, be plotting all out attack in search of a 4 try bonus point.

I will keep my own counsel insofar as the bonus is concerned but am prepared to predict that the Highlanders will win.





BRUMBIES (12/1 Long Term) 17/20 vs REDS (12/1 Long Term) 21/20

The Brumbies and Reds square up in one of the more anticipated clashes of the weekend.

The home side have boxed way above their weight this entire season whilst the Reds have latterly sounded a clear warning that they are improving with each passing week.

Australian derbies are usually as tight as the NZ and SA equivalents so I am not expecting a try fest. Nor should the margin necessarily be that great between the two sides.

But I do feel the Reds are the hungrier of the two and therefore I rate them to win. Certainly the offer of 21/20 looks like one of the more attractive betting options of the weekend.


WESTERN FORCE (1000/1 Long Term) vs LIONS (1000/1 Long Term) 5/2

Cellar dweller matchups can usually go either way. Choose A and B will inevitably win. Choose B and suddenly they will disappoint. If you like betting on these events then you have probably practised on MR 62 Fillies & Mares handicaps. And you know what can pop up in those!

It could be entertaining. But not with my money. Coin toss.



CHEETAHS (1000/1 Long Term) 6/10 vs WARATAHS (200/1 Long Term) 15/10


This should be another close call.

I thought the Waratahs put up commendable resistance against the Stormers last week. They have had another full week to get the travel out of their systems so have only unfamiliar field conditions to overcome.

The Cheetahs must be getting thoroughly sick of running better performed sides really close and then letting the match slip in the last quarter.

Both sides are effectively out of it so it becomes a matter of conjecture as to how committed they really are to winning here. A sort of ‘nice to do’ but ‘not the end of the world if we don’t’ scenario.

No bet for me on that basis. A coin toss.






SHARKS (16/1 Long Term) 15/20 vs STORMERS (5/2 Long Term) 12/10

A lot of ink has already been spilled on this match.

I find a lot of the comment so far remarkably naive. All sorts of esoteric reasons are being advanced as to who is favourite and who will win.

Yes – It’s a derby. Yes – It will be tough.

Fact – The Sharks can blow very hot or very cold. Lately they have been mildly hot but have often chosen the Stormers games as matches in which they have blown cold.

Fact – The Stormers have been awful as an attacking side. But they have won all but one of their matches.

Simple logic, therefore, dictates that it is the Stormers who will have to be beaten rather than the other way around.

The matchup has the following shape :

The Sharks have a clear edge in the front row. They are probably outclassed at lock. If the Sharks cannot establish an edge amongst the loose forwards then they ought to be ashamed when you consider the personnel at their disposal.

Neither side – despite an impressive array of talent – is presently candidate for a Backline Of The Year award with the Sharks also often falling woefully short in defence.

The major difference between the two sides is that the Stormers appear to operate better as a unit than their opponents do. So clearly there is a good ‘commitment to the cause’ amongst the visitors.

The Stormers were lucky to win at Newlands in the early rounds. Home ground should give the Sharks an edge.

My head says Sharks. My heart says Stormers.

If the Bulls blow it against the Chiefs on Friday I believe the Stormers will be going all out to put the SA conference to bed on Saturday afternoon and ensure that they are not for catching when they go to Loftus a week later.

On this premise I pick the Stormers.

This is the selections of the top leader in our Superbru log. Points @ the moment 94

Chiefs by 7
Canes by 9
Hlanders by9
Brumbies by 9
Force by 7
Tahs by 7
Stormers by 7

Mine not that different - except for the Lions of course (tu)

Chiefs by 7
Canes by 11
Highlanders by 13
Brumbies by 4
Lions by 5
Tahs by 4
Stormers by 2