SUPER 15 - WEEK BY WEEK

today i like the Sharks outright 20% stake and 80% +8.5
i think the bulls will win so perhaps a strike at -6.5 20% stake and outright 80% of stake

Cheetahs and Lions should fight out last place not sure which team is worse

2nd week in a row that the Stormers were saved by the ref:D

En die Bulls look awesomeX(

Go the Bulls pink or blue

Well – the ‘spooks’ I referred to in the preview were not long in making themselves felt.

The Chiefs were quick to overturn the formbook by dramatically upping their game to comprehensively outplay a lack lustre Blues side.

Apart from anything else I was brutally reminded that early predictions often overlook weather conditions. In this match they played no small part with the Chiefs adapting far better than their more fancied rivals.

Form studiers might also have drawn the following conclusions regarding the remainder of the weekend :

The Highlanders’ away form against the Chiefs was franked. The Crusaders’ away win against the Blues looked less impressive; especially when one considers that they could have/should have lost in the last seconds but for a charged down drop kick from Piri Weepu.

The Waratahs duly despatched the Rebels as predicted. The NSW men are showing their traditional early season form and can look forward to a number of players still to return from injury.

The early morning shock to my system applied by the Chiefs prompted me to review the Lions game. I am ashamed to say that I completely overlooked the long term record between the two sides which heavily favoured the visitors. At the last minute I heeded my own warning about the Lions being too short in the betting and did a switch to the Hurricanes.

The visitors duly exposed the home side’s lack of real class and got up in the shadow of the post. I have to admit that I spent most of the match on my feet in front of the TV. I fear the Lions might now slide inexorably down towards the lower portion of the overall table. 50/1 about their chances of winning the competition was always excessively mean.

The Highlanders got up as I indicated they might to beat the Crusaders. In doing so they proved an age old rugby adage – you can beat any side if you ‘front up’. And front up they certainly did in what was surely the best match of the competition to date. If they can husband their playing resources they will do well this year; particularly against sides like the Bulls and Sharks. We should all be regretting not having taken a bit of the 33/1 available just one week ago before their first match. I would guess they will be quoted at anything from 10/1 – 14/1 by Monday morning.

The Crusaders have no reason to be despondent – they were competitive throughout and it WAS an away game for them. But on form to date they are probably only 4/1 shots to win Super 15 once you factor in the demands that are going to be made uninterruptedly on their leading players when many of their competitors will be resting and re-charging during the mid year international period.

Weather again played a role in the Reds Vs Force match. The Reds unnecessarily went to sleep during the second half and allowed the Force an undeserved sniff. Force still lack power and creativity to be really competitive. The Reds appear to have plenty of self belief and self confidence.

I missed all but the first 35 minutes of the Cheetahs vs Bulls match but I understand that the Cheetahs were well and truly put to bed. All of the vulnerability that the home side displayed in warm up games and the first round have now been exposed. It does not augur at all well for the season.

The Bulls are showing encouraging potential but I would caution against any premature celebrations. Our ‘line horse’ is the Hurricanes who are widely regarded as the weakest of the NZ franchises. They lost narrowly to the Stormers but beat the Lions. The latter beat the Cheetahs last week. On current collateral form you have to put the Sharks and Stormers pretty much on par with the Bulls presently the form SA side.

The disturbing aspect of the SA performances is the dreadful quality of their play. ‘Bang crash’ is just about all they seem capable of. Skill and finesse are almost completely absent. Take a look at the replays and count how many local players seek out support when they make those somewhat rare line breaks. Most go to ground and then try to recycle. And as for the kicking..........they are mostly voluntarily gifting possession straight back to the opposition.

Perhaps rugby appears more exciting on TV as cameras bring you closer to the action. But I watched the Stormers vs Sharks match live with a mixture of amazement and disappointment as two supposedly professional sides produced an almost unbelievable display of inept, mindless rugby. Endeavour was plentiful but skill, vision and precison were completely absent.

At this early stage of the competition we can thank our lucky stars for the conference system. Without it I doubt whether any SA team would make the playoffs.

Txs for update Garrick much appreciated, just looking at latest betting

28/10 Crusaders, 9/2 Reds, 7/1 Stormers, 17/2 Waratahs, 12/1 Bulls, Cheifs, Highlanders, 25/1 Sharks and sure u can have 100/1 lions and double that price for Cheetas

8/1Blues

SHARKS @ 25s is a massive price. Two derby matches lost (away); I'm gonna take some of that before they shorten.

the blues are a value bet - sharks no chance

Week 3 – Let’s see if we can find some winners!

CRUSADERS vs CHIEFS

A glance at the history books reveals that a good side usually bounces back with a vengeance in the week following a defeat – whether that defeat was a fluke or the result of a below standard performance.

The Crusaders are an undoubtedly good side.

Under normal circumstances I would empty out on a match such as this one. But I am concerned at the 9/20 price – it’s too short against a side that has ( contrary to my earlier predictions ) showed massive improvement.

Friday will reveal whether the Chiefs are going to blow hot and cold this season. If they return to the level that they exhibited against the Highlanders they will surely get beaten. If they reproduce their effort against the Blues they will go close.

On the Crusaders side two material issues bother me : Their goal kicking falls below an acceptable level at present which is a great recipe for losing games that should have been won. Secondly their midfield defence – which will face the lethal combination of Kahui & Williams – has been ‘soft’ to date.

In their favour – they can step up their forward play and take a vice like grip on possession.

Despite my reservations I Iean towards the Crusaders.


WESTERN FORCE vs HURRICANES

Although I switched late to the Hurricanes last week and got the lot I am the first to admit that I was lucky. The Lions’ loss of their front row personnel and subsequent calling of uncontested scrums was a h-u-g-e bonus for the Hurricanes as they were in the process of being murdered in the scrums. Such are the vagaries of sport!

They have had to travel. Again. But their confidence should be on the rise.

The Force have not been too bad this season but are very much a ‘bottom half of the table’ side. Nevertheless they occasionally pull off the odd surprise.

This is a 50/50 game. Flip your coin.


BRUMBIES vs CHEETAHS

Brumbies. What more can I say ?



HIGHLANDERS vs WARATAHS

The Highlanders once again find themselves in one of the most anticipated matches of the weekend.

I admit to being something of a fan at the moment which is bound to bite me sooner or later.

The Waratahs traditionally do not travel all that well in New Zealand ( who does? ) and, importantly, have a goal kicker whose range peters out after 40 metres odd.

This should be an arm wrestle but if the Highlanders are able to maintain their energy levels I believe they will add another scalp to their 2012 collection.


REDS vs REBELS

Surely the Reds ?

I think so.


SHARKS vs LIONS

The Sharks should break their duck here.

Lions are weakened by injuries to their front row so the battle up front could be edged by the home team.

But the Sharks really need to start playing some intelligent rugby. They have been laboured and crude in the opening two rounds.


BULLS vs BLUES

The Blues have not beaten the Bulls at Loftus for ages.

The home side are performing far better than I anticipated they would. But beware – they have beaten an off colour Sharks side at home and a piss poor Cheetahs side away. That may not necessarily be great form at present.

Conversely the Blues have also looked somewhat ‘headless’ under pressure in the first two weeks. But be cautioned – they effectively missed beating the Crusaders by a whisker in the opening round. So either the Crusaders are not that good or the Blues are not that bad. You decide.

What should be bothering the Blues is this : Their front row appears average at best. The two All Black locks have been almost anonymous in the first two weeks. And their loose trio without hardman Jerome Keino may struggle.

What might backfire for the Bulls is this : South African sides require only one or two wins to rate themselves as world champions. Which this side most certainly is not anywhere close to being yet.

If they elect to roll out another ‘skopfest’ as they did against the Sharks they well regret feeding players such as Ranger and Nonu ball to run back at them. Nevertheless I notice that Toeavu is missing at fullback which is a massive boost for the Bulls.

The Blues will need to achieve parity up front and run the Bulls around if they hope to beat them. Only a handful of sides execute this type of game plan effectively at Loftus.

On current form and with two leading players absent it is difficult to tip the Blues. So I select the Bulls to win it.

@ Garrick, thanks for the preview. Hope you enjoyed Newlands on Saturday

With Dagg, Maitland & Guildford at the back, I'm also leaning towards the Crusaders. @ home by 9

The Force have Cameron Shepherd & Richard Brown back with the lock Sam Wykes on the bench. They have lost 2 in a row, but flying back from SA, and their discipline is suspect, the Canes might just not have enough gas for the Force.....as Garrick said, flip a coin....but I'm going with the Force....by 5

Crusaders to win home double with Sharks home win- expect Sharks to improve major at home
Force beat Canes
Brumbies to win by 15+
Blues might not be a pushover but not a match to bet on
BEST BET Brumbies to win 15+ (even more if you are brave)