Kenilworth Saturday

Fifty2one, as to your question as to why Felix is on the Snaith first timer in Race 2, the answer is simple. I got to choose who I wanted on Princess Creo out of Bernard, Shaun and Felix. I chose Shaun as he had ridden her last time and I felt like continuity was important. Felix and Bernard are brilliant riders, but I want to correct the misconception that Felix chose the first timer over Princess Creo.

As it relates to your comment that she had no extra late last time, you could well be right. That said, she is bred to go further, and we believe that 1400 is her best distance. I suspect the extra furlong will be to her benefit. She has worked like a champ, but who the hell knows!

Best of luck for tomorrow.

Greg

Thanks for the transparency Greg

grograce Wrote:

---

> Fifty2one, as to your question as to why Felix is
> on the Snaith first timer in Race 2, the answer is
> simple. I got to choose who I wanted on Princess
> Creo out of Bernard, Shaun and Felix. I chose
> Shaun as he had ridden her last time and I felt
> like continuity was important. Felix and Bernard
> are brilliant riders, but I want to correct the
> misconception that Felix chose the first timer
> over Princess Creo.
>
> As it relates to your comment that she had no
> extra late last time, you could well be right.
> That said, she is bred to go further, and we
> believe that 1400 is her best distance. I suspect
> the extra furlong will be to her benefit. She has
> worked like a champ, but who the hell knows!
>
> Best of luck for tomorrow.
>
> Greg

Thanks for that (tu) makes sense, best of luck though. Was just a little worried about the other 1st timer Inn Action. I should have specified. She will be a tough filly to beat but at 7/10, the reason I though she was not a worthy favorite was purely because she was 8/10 last time out and on her last 2 runs she shows plenty of speed but fades very quickly coming into the last furlong or so.

Nevertheless good luck for tomorrow and thank you once again for your honest feedback, it is really appreciated.

My pleasure. I completely agree with you that she is not worth betting at these prices - your analysis was spot on. She doesn't deserve to be this big a favourite. That said, I expect her to prefer the 1200. Justin has her fine-tuned. Will be up at 3am watching her on the Internet! Best, Greg

grograce Wrote:

---

> Fifty2one, as to your question as to why Felix is
> on the Snaith first timer in Race 2, the answer is
> simple. I got to choose who I wanted on Princess
> Creo out of Bernard, Shaun and Felix. I chose
> Shaun as he had ridden her last time and I felt
> like continuity was important. Felix and Bernard
> are brilliant riders, but I want to correct the
> misconception that Felix chose the first timer
> over Princess Creo.
>
> As it relates to your comment that she had no
> extra late last time, you could well be right.
> That said, she is bred to go further, and we
> believe that 1400 is her best distance. I suspect
> the extra furlong will be to her benefit. She has
> worked like a champ, but who the hell knows!
>
> Best of luck for tomorrow.
>
> Greg

Thanks Greg and all the best with your runner tomorrow. Great to see another transparent connection posting here.
Keep it up (tu)

grograce Wrote:

---

> My pleasure. I completely agree with you that she
> is not worth betting at these prices - your
> analysis was spot on. She doesn't deserve to be
> this big a favourite. That said, I expect her to
> prefer the 1200. Justin has her fine-tuned. Will
> be up at 3am watching her on the Internet! Best,
> Greg

Only a pleasure Greg, Will be shouting for you and Bryn... Bryn will probably be shouting Hammie's Hooker home as well!! Best of luck for tomorrow.

Some food for thought, I came across a forum called "J&B Met" and it seems there is more dispute between Cape Town Horses, JHB Horses and Durban Horses, very little about actual "Horses"... found it a little strange albeit that it adds to the hype of a meeting such as the feature tomorrow.

My little spanner in the works... Okay so we all agree Gimmethegreenlight beat Variety Club on the 07th Jan 2012 L'Ormarins Queen's Plate by 0.40 lengths, Pomodoro won the Durban July, Slumdog Millionaire beat Pomodoro by 0.10 lengths over the 1800m on the 31st March 2012 SA Classic. So where am I going with this, well simple really, Slumdog Millionaire not only beat Pomodoro who lets be honest was far from his best on the day but also beat Gimmethegreenlight in the same race who was odds on favorite to win, this is the very same horse that beat Variety Club last year. Slumdog Millionaire is not nearly at his best and although has come off a lengthy break will only be having his second run after a rest so expect his bigger run at the J&B Met. I've really got myself going now as I made Variety Club an absolute racing guarantee but now looking at the collatoral formline Pomodoro I'm sorry to say lads looks a MASSIVE runner tomorrow... Strange after checking the betting Slumdig Millionaire has been claimed twice and is now 14/1 and Pomodoro 4/1.

Anyways It's late and i'm probably just talking rubbish.

Valuable info Fifty (tu) you have a PM

My fancies on the card :-

R2 - Masked Lady
R3 - Platinum Ruler
R4 - Dumani
R5 - Dubai GinR6 - Cape Royal
R7 - Varikate
R8 - undecided:S
R9 - True Master - i see Snaith has 6 runners in the race and Cormack has won on 5 of the 6 with the exception of Greys Inn Control whom he beat last time out. I'd like to believe Cormack feels True Master is the right one but then again jockey's do make the incorrect choices, and for good measure, i see TM is a blinker stike:
R10 - Blake

Happy Lion and Cats paw dbl for me!

Here is my 5 cents worth:

Race 1: no picks

Race 2: I guess ti could be the exacta Greg tipped us by tend to lean to the Kotzen horse. Princess is out of a hallgate mare and being a speed influence perhaps she is going to be too quick for this tough 1200m. But none the less thanks for posting and your transparency.
Race 3: I like the Rebel King colt nineteen fourteen. I think he has massive improvement to come and with the weight turn around with Silk Road, he should go close.
Race 4: Earths Orbit is very well in here but with the top weight being 54kg's, I'm not sure about this race. Put in one or two extra.
Race 5: Tough race this. I think Beach Beauty is well in and a worthy favorite, but I'm concerned about the draw. If she pulls and is too keen from that draw Sean is going to have his hands full. I think there are some other runners in the filed, incase BB plays up a little. Dubai Gina has a big shout, pity about the jock , Bambina Stipes has some kind of a chance, pity about the draw and my roughie is JEt Aglow even though she is out at the weights, I think she is improving and this trip will suit her well!
Race 6: Cape Royal not for me. He could surely run a place but not with my vote. I like Cap Alright. If he gets a claimer on her will be hard to beat however don't ignore Captain Harry. He is (now) 5kg's better off with Cap Alright for a one length beating.....should be taken note of
Race 7: I liked the way Jackie O won last time so that should bring American Fantasy into the race too.....I don't like this race.
Race 8: Lets be honest Variety Club is the best miler in SA, no doubt. My only concern and for me its two BIG ones are as follows: 1) The draw, obviously. 2) He has bled before and if he gets put under pressure from the gun to get to the lead then he could be in trouble. Also I think perhaps a pace maker may have made more sense in this spot, but I guess Ramsden didn't know he was going to get this draw.......Who can win? I have NO IDEA. Perhaps Jackson or Pomodoro but for me, I would load up in the Jackpot and enjoy the race.
Race 9: Hardest race on the card....I like Patriotic Rebel...nothing else!
Race 10: I'm not sure that blake is the same horse he was....Having said that I can't really find anything to beat him. If you haven't had a bet yet today I don't think this is the race to start!!!!

Have an enjoyable day!

Beautiful sunny day in CT and two great Grade 1 fields.
Variety Club has done everything right this year, and despite the draw should win the Queens Plate. Jackson to follow him home. Pomodoro, Bravura, Master Plan and Western Winter to fight out the minor places.
Beach Beauty should also win. Hammies Hooker the main danger, with Dubai Gina and Thunder Dance the best of the rest.
Blake a class above his field in the last.
These 3 races give a nice treble.
The fillies conditions race Earths Orbit is well in, followed by Miss Ipanema.
The rest of the card is competitive as to be expected on a big day.