Can one of these 3 year olds win the Met?

any of the top 4 finishers yesterday can win the Qplate and for the j+b CA and RR wont because they pure milers...

RedRay may just turn out to be a decent 1200m horse. He is by western winter and his best race so far was in the nursery.

Nothing in this thread has been mentioned of Willow Magic. This horse IS the real deal ...

The 2 other horses running on and that will be suited to further and must not be ignored are Roman Manner and Power King

Mac Wrote:

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> Nothing in this thread has been mentioned of
> Willow Magic. This horse IS the real deal ...


The horses mentioned here are entered for the Met. Willow Magic is not.

Anyway Willow Magic and Whistle Stop seems pretty closely matched. The latter got clobbered yesterday even though he may now need further. The exact opposite can be said of Willow Magic who looks like a mile is his maximum, for now.

PeterD Wrote:

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> I know that comparing race times across different
> races can be dangerous due to all the variables
> involved, but it is worth noting that the Guineas
> was run a half second faster than the Jet Master
> Stakes. Louvre set a decent pace in the latter
> race before fading, and once Strongman hit the
> front in the Guineas a similar good pace was set.
> It would be great if we had sectional times, but
> in the absence of that I think it's still not
> unreasonable to draw some comparisons. King of
> Pain is a top horse, and he carried 61kg, while
> the 3 yo's carried 58kg in the Guineas. WFA
> allowance currently at 1600m is 6kg. If we assume
> (yes, big assumption) that the two races are
> directly comparable, then these two races support
> the view that this year's 3yo colts are top
> class.
> In fact, there is thus reason to believe that the
> first 4 home in the Guineas are as much as 6-10 lb
> better than King of Pain and Jet Explorer.
> That would make the top 3yo's serious runners in
> the Queens Plate or Met.


I looked at the two race times long and hard and watched the replays. It is my opinion that the Strongman pace was the clincher for the time difference, but will wait till I can check the 400m to finish of the respective runners. The assumption is that Elusive Gold will have been the fastest, but am more interested in Ze Kaiser, Jet Aglow, KoP , CA, Red Ray, Power King and Roman Manners times.

forest indigo remind me a lot of classic flag

Guineas race review in SPost says stipes had in both Fayd'Herbe and Marcus after Guineas - FaydHerbe got 7 day suspension for whip abuse on winner and Marcus warned for shifting in Red Ray and bumping Captain America at 1200m, and also reported Captain America lost a shoe in running. (I seem to remember stipes also had Marcus in for same offence in Lanzerac?).

Last week the official handicappers had the top 3yo colts as follows:
Captain of All. 108
Kochka. 105
Red Ray 104
Forest Indigo. 104
Willow Magic 104
Jimmy Choo. 103
Antonius du Bois 101
Whistle Stop 100
Captain America. 97
For some weird reason the Lanzerac result was ignored by them, otherwise Captain America would presumably have been above Red Ray.

After the Guineas, they will presumably do something like:
Elusive Gold 107
Captain America 106

Power King and Roman Manner on the above scale ran 102 but were unplaced so their ratings may not change (87 and 89)
We can ignore Whistle Stop's run here- he was very difficult in the parade, and ran no kind of race.

1. I think these top horses are all underrated by the official handicapper by at least 5 lb.
2. Which is the best miler?
At the moment it has to be between Elusive Gold and Captain America, followed by Red Ray.
There is nothing between Kochka,Forest Indigo and Willow Magic, and they are close behind.
Captain of All has yet to go a mile, and is also top class.
Captain America had some valid excuses on Saturday (spread shoe and also slightly impeded earlier in the race by Red Ray)
It was a fast run race with a noticeable headwind and a true test of stamina over the mile with the long run in.
I would still go with Elusive Gold ahead of Captain America based on his rate of improvement and devastating late kick, but it's not conclusive.
3. Which is the best 2000m horse?
Too soon to tell as none have yet tried. I don't think that Red Ray will stay. Elusive Gold looks like he could carry the form the extra 400m.
Forest Indigo, Whistle Stop and Willow Magic should also stay. His trainer has always said that Captain America will go the trip, but I think there must be some doubts.
Roman Manner ( ran on best from tail of the field) and Power King will need to be taken seriously over the longer trip.

None of these 3 year old's can win the J&B met. They finished too close to each other. Can anybody tell me how many lengths covered the first 4 past the post?

ManP Wrote:

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> None of these 3 year old's can win the J&B met.
> They finished too close to each other. Can anybody
> tell me how many lengths covered the first 4 past
> the post?


1.25 lengths ....

The Madji Wrote:

---

> PeterD Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > I know that comparing race times across
> different
> > races can be dangerous due to all the variables
> > involved, but it is worth noting that the
> Guineas
> > was run a half second faster than the Jet
> Master
> > Stakes. Louvre set a decent pace in the latter
> > race before fading, and once Strongman hit the
> > front in the Guineas a similar good pace was
> set.
> > It would be great if we had sectional times,
> but
> > in the absence of that I think it's still not
> > unreasonable to draw some comparisons. King of
> > Pain is a top horse, and he carried 61kg, while
> > the 3 yo's carried 58kg in the Guineas. WFA
> > allowance currently at 1600m is 6kg. If we
> assume
> > (yes, big assumption) that the two races are
> > directly comparable, then these two races
> support
> > the view that this year's 3yo colts are top
> > class.
> > In fact, there is thus reason to believe that
> the
> > first 4 home in the Guineas are as much as 6-10
> lb
> > better than King of Pain and Jet Explorer.
> > That would make the top 3yo's serious runners
> in
> > the Queens Plate or Met.
>
>
> I looked at the two race times long and hard and
> watched the replays. It is my opinion that the
> Strongman pace was the clincher for the time
> difference, but will wait till I can check the
> 400m to finish of the respective runners. The
> assumption is that Elusive Gold will have been the
> fastest, but am more interested in Ze Kaiser, Jet
> Aglow, KoP , CA, Red Ray, Power King and Roman
> Manners times.


Zgree with you,but i think Roman manners 40mF might be just as fast as EG or a split second slower...Derby gona be a great race!