Turffontein 8th June

FazzX Wrote:

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> mr hawaii Wrote:
>

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>

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> > If TRIP TO HEAVEN has 50% of the ability of his
> > H/B - The Hangman - he will win race 2 - Taso
> The
> > Sailor started 66-1 on debut and did not run
> well
> > considering the winner won by a mile - I think
> he
> > needs ground and I would not be rushing to
> take
> > 17-10 about him - weak maiden and the Tarry
> > horse's genes might see him win
>
> I presume Taso the Sailor is priced up favourite
> in this weak race because of what looked a fair
> debut 9.0 lengths behind feature tried Precursor,
> which is the supposed best form in the race.
>
> An interesting observation though is that year
> older Wallingford ran the same 1000m on the same
> day at the Vaal just a race later, and finished in
> 58.49 versus Taso's 59.51. If it were a combined
> race, Wallingford would have finished a good 5.37
> lengths ahead of Taso (i.e. only 3.21 lengths
> behind Precursor) :
>
> There's only a 1 kilo difference in the weights,
> and even allowing for any improvement by Taso, it
> put's the 17/10 into scary perspective, when
> Wallingford who effectively beat him soundly, is
> priced up at 66/1 and 8/1 a place()
>
> If you ignore Wallingford's last sand run, he must
> be great E/W value if the bookies have Taso the
> likely winner.
> LJ Erasmus is also a master at dirtying the
> formline between surfaces, only to surprise
> everyone at a big price when returning back to the
> form surface.
>
> As you say, if Tarry's first timer has any ability
> the race could be at his mercy, because
> Wallingford's own form is well exposed and pretty
> weak overall.

Could be a first timer dbl for Khumalo with the first race baby Icy Avalanche(Western Winter in stead of Jet Master - previous matings suggest might need 1400-1600m but I think Western Winter might be a good nick here)

I'm not confident on any outright win bets today. So I thought I's try and look for some solid place bets. So I may have a place bet nibble at these for some interest in today's racing.

Race # Horse

1 7 Icy Avalanche
4 4  Precursor
8 1  Dirty Champagne
9 1  Echuka

FazzX Wrote:

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> mr hawaii Wrote:
>

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>

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> > If TRIP TO HEAVEN has 50% of the ability of his
> > H/B - The Hangman - he will win race 2 - Taso
> The
> > Sailor started 66-1 on debut and did not run
> well
> > considering the winner won by a mile - I think
> he
> > needs ground and I would not be rushing to
> take
> > 17-10 about him - weak maiden and the Tarry
> > horse's genes might see him win
>
> I presume Taso the Sailor is priced up favourite
> in this weak race because of what looked a fair
> debut 9.0 lengths behind feature tried Precursor,
> which is the supposed best form in the race.
>
> An interesting observation though is that year
> older Wallingford ran the same 1000m on the same
> day at the Vaal just a race later, and finished in
> 58.49 versus Taso's 59.51. If it were a combined
> race, Wallingford would have finished a good 5.37
> lengths ahead of Taso (i.e. only 3.21 lengths
> behind Precursor) :
>
> There's only a 1 kilo difference in the weights,
> and even allowing for any improvement by Taso, it
> put's the 17/10 into scary perspective, when
> Wallingford who effectively beat him soundly, is
> priced up at 66/1 and 8/1 a place()
>
> If you ignore Wallingford's last sand run, he must
> be great E/W value if the bookies have Taso the
> likely winner.
> LJ Erasmus is also a master at dirtying the
> formline between surfaces, only to surprise
> everyone at a big price when returning back to the
> form surface.
>
> As you say, if Tarry's first timer has any ability
> the race could be at his mercy, because
> Wallingford's own form is well exposed and pretty
> weak overall.


I agree with you on Wallingford , ignoring sand runs his turf form reads 2l off King of Magic and 7.8l off easy winner Gunfighter in a fair field - might be able to sneak a place at 10s.

R5 Magico danger Jimmy Choo
R6 Seal danger from Silvous Plait and Raaes
R7 Emporer Augustus ,Eurakilon must be a huge runner
R8 Norgay

Tough card

Punt with caution

Leon Erasmus might drop bombs somewhere

Race 6 - S'il Vous Plait not consistent but has run close to Seal on his best efforts and this looks his best c & d.

r1 7 ICY AVALANCHE
r2 TRIP TO HEAVEN
r3 4 ROYAL REVENGE (possible pa banker)
r4 1 BURG (my place bet today)(the form suggests that he will have to make up a few lengths on Precursor if you use Belong to Me as a line)
r5 1 SHARP DESIGN maybe a sw with De Var Hyt
r6 1 SEAL
r7 4 EMPEROR AUGUSTUS (e/w)
r8 10 KEAGAN`S JET(not his surface but nas a confident rider up so could be in quartets)
r9 1 ECHUKA pa banker MULBERRY BAY hails from an Arctic like stable but Strydom back on and the blinkers retained so expect some improvment

My double for the day....Percusor and Storm Warning...91 ...

Icy Avalanche
Cannes

swinger and exacta

I wouldn't be getting too warm and fuzzy about anything in that race.....

that was a nice win by a horse that should go ground

Tommy_Hotspur Wrote:

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> I wouldn't be getting too warm and fuzzy about
> anything in that race.....

Wallingford is no 66/1 poke