To read or not to read... lol
R1 Especially given the draws, of the debutants, Land Of Legends appealed most, Cormack though up on the stablemate and fav Richochet Flyer so I will side with that one. Main Submission, drawn 4, could go well. Billy's Magic related to Willow Magic but drawn high and Rikitikitana is sired by Toreador but drawn 11.
R2 For me, Durban Blues looks strongest here. Euthenia up against winners on debut (soft) and on collateral through Big Sugar could be competitive but the 12 box won't make things easy. Bespoken and Diamond Drop could contest the minor honours.
R3 Jade Green seems inconsistent but 2 runs back put in a good effort from the worst draw over Grey 1200 and 4 runs back, over this c/d, had Cape Grey 1.25l behind (soft), the latter has subsequently finished 1.5l in front of Masked Girl over 1600 here. At the prices, I would rather chance JG e/w. My main roughie is annoyingly scratched but another to consider is possibly For Love Or Money, weak overall form and yet to show at all on the turf really but, over 1600 on the poly, 3 runs back took silver, on lines through the 3rd, Noriki, it is possible to make a case if reproducing that run.
R4 Top 3 in the market likely to fight it out and slight preference for Firefly but could be very close and not one I would bet on. The complete roughie I give a place chance to is Shemmy, disappointing lto but that was on the poly when drawn widest of 10. The debut run though, over the c/d, wasn't the worst and a quartet inclusion for me. At the price, might be worth risking a small e/w or place.
R5 Although she looks potentially held on the Captain America run, I think Tiger Tiger from the 1 box could be competitive here, my e/w shout. Others from that form line, Big Cat and Sail South should be thereabouts also. Royal Zulu Guard could be a significant runner here at decent odds, if forgiving the last run when slowly away on the poly. Prior to that, not beaten more than 1.65l in 7 runs, winning two of those. The draw, on the high side in 9, is a slight concern.
R6 Fairly competitive looking affair. Argyle Bay put in a decent effort returning from a rest lto and within 1.75l of the winner in his last two outings, both over c/d. Fourie up and good draw in 5. I make Sea Fever the most likely danger. On a somewhat "risky" line through Just Ask me, AB looks to have him held. Valerin, returning from an 18 week rest, must have a chance if fit. The roughie here is Trendy Guy, gets the appie back up and has the 1 box. Lto was drawn 16/16 on the Grey turf so happy to put a line through it. Not a terrible effort on returning from an 11 week rest in penultimate and was in fairly consistent form before that, winning 3 runs back here over 1600. Has a 1-1-3 record in 6 c visits and 40s looks big to me.
R7 Very open and the draws could prove vital. I thus marginally favour Tiptol over Echuka. The latter can be slowly away and I am not entirely convinced she will be at her best dropped to 1000, nevertheless potentially a serious contender. Tiptol found herself 2nd last at the first bend over the Greyville 1000 lto but put in a very strong last 100 to get up. The concern is she might find herself behind in the early stages again and struggle for a way through. Miss Varlicious has a very high draw but could be involved if everything goes her way. Low weight, good draw, in decent form recently, Here We Are is likely to be in the vicinity and Golden Mirabilis should not been far off either, closely matched with HWA and a good c record. Preamble is the roughie I give a squeak to, well beaten by HWA lto, blinkers on and removed here, and by Tiptol in penultimate, drawn badly, but it will be tough from draw 13.
R8 The winner is likely to come from the GVZ stable, I prefer the "outsider" of the three. Somewhat risky as form since a 21 week break has not been the best but, the penultimate was from a wide draw in soft conditions and lto he lost ground at the start when drawn widest of 16 on the Grey turf. Reportedly not striding in the one before the break but, prior to that, he had beaten Vino Veritas 2.35l over 1800, when drawn 10 to VV's 2, and now gets a 5.5kgs swing. Little to choose between VV and Withbaitedbreath but I marginally prefer the latter for the exacta spot.
R9 Have managed to skittle it down to four. I will chance Countermove who, despite only being on 2nd run after a 42 week break, was running on nicely into 2nd lto over 1600 having to come from the back. There is little to choose between him and Scots Party over 1600 on a line through Charles My Boy and both are now on 3rd run after a break. CM is drawn badly again and SP is drawn much the better of the two but I think CM may have a bit to come. The other two are firstly, Handsome Harvey who, from a wide draw. was finishing strongly over 1600 lto on only his second career start, he may though have a little to find with CM on the Dagger Fall/Dark Avenger (didn't settle vs HH) line but, he is also much better drawn here than CM and could be a big runner. Secondly, the big priced roughie is Newton's Spark. Not the most consistent but his last three visits here on good going have seen defeats of 1.55l and 3.65l over 2400 and 1.65l over this d when just pipped by D'Vash who, in his previous run, had finished 1l ahead of Charles My Boy over 1600. Not the best draw of 12 but one I would include and will nibble.
Be(s)t of luck to all
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