Greyville 20080607 Big Day!!!!

Well the Dailynews has arrived !!!!

Apart from a few standout bets racing looks quite difficult.Maybe a few doubles and a nice Pa perm which normally pays well at Greyville.Well here goes....

R1 Electric Lightning should kick off the day,worth a decent bet.

R2 Cashmere taking on older horses,but should give a good account of herself.

R3 Open as they come,Winging it wild,charming lady,al vino,aquatint,might go with Cormack on charming lady as it is his last meeting in SA.

R4 Jewel in her crown should prove to good.

R5 Another open race,Consensual,badgers cove,gypsy's warning,supa glow--

R6 Another difficult race,Mount hood,kings cross,forest path,commissionersstreet....

R7 Silverpoint and Apple a day to fight it out followed by bayete and earlswood

R8 Urabamba to give strydom a birthday present.but he will have to work hard for it,many challenges.

R9 Russian sage to smoke them!!!

R10 Prime directive to run a decent race.

Best bets :doubles with Russian sage - Jewel in her crown - Prime directive and electric lightning.
P.S Thread carefully as greyville is known to throw some terrible results!!!

Early betting (Interbet and Blackpearlbetting) :

Race 1, 2/1 Al Qhir; 33/10 London Retreat; 7/2 Edwin Streeter; 4/1 Electric Lightning; 8/1 Bold Pigeon; 10/1 Silver knight, Double Crossed; 20/1 bar

Race 2, 2/1 Gandhara; 5/2 Victory Hill, Cashmere; 6/1 Bongola Storm;10/1 Into the Red; 12/1 Spanish Emblem; 16/1 bar

Race 3, 2/1 Charming Lady; 3/1 Winging it Wild; 5/1 I Said Hey; 6/1 Aquatint, One Way; 7/1 Russian Lass; 8/1 Al Vino; 10/1 What me Worry; 20/1 bar
Unique, D.David (-1.5kg)

Race 4, 2/1 Jewel in her Crown; 9/2 Elude and Avoid; 7/1 Risk Seeker, Manzanilla, Nip 'n Tuck; 12/1 Common Law, Revealing Belle; 14/1 bar

Race 5, 14/10 Consensual; 5/2 Lady Windermere; 5/1 Winterinthewoods; 6/1 Kiribati; 8/1 Badger's Cove, Secret Park; 10/1 Gypsy's Warning, Sweet Theresa; 14/1 bar

Race 6, 16/10 Forest Path; 3/1 Mount Hood; 33/10 Commissionerstreet, Predestination; 7/1 Kings Cross; 8/1 Keyman; 10/1 King's Shilling; 20/1 bar

Race 7, 3/1 Autumn Frost; 6/1 Bill of Rights; 7/1 Santa, Prince Asad; 10/1 Earlswood; 12/1 Strategic News, Apple-a-Day, Membrado; 14/1 bar

Race 8, 18/10 Front House; 9/2 Happy Spirit; 5/1 Gilded Minaret, Urabamba; 7/1 Ice Belle, Sahara; 12/1 Ladonna, Albizia, Wendywood; 25/1 bar

Race 9, 15/10 Russian Sage; 7/2 Lion's Blood; 9/2 Tan Can; 5/1 Kingdom Come; 6/1 Classic Oasis; 10/1 Extrapolator, Kilcoy Castle; 12/1 Gallant Gagnant, Thandolwami, Lubricator; 16/1 bar
Scratched, Kings Gambit
The Big Ask, J.Geroudis; Sorba el Griego, R.Danielsen

Race 10, 16/10 Prime Directive; 9/2 Determinator; 6/1 Top Office; 8/1 Well Saddled; 10/1 Purple Rocket; 12/1 Maldini; 14/1 bar

A big day, and I am nursing a heavy head after some serious pool and side refreshments. Well here's to hoping the racing goes better than me and the missus did in the pool league

Trouble with the big ones, is the size of the fields -- punting nightmare, praying your horse gets a run.

R1: London Retreat to beat off Electric Lightning.
R2: Victory Hill with Into The Red next.
R3: Match Race Al Vino & Charming Lady anyone goes, I'm leaning to Alvino but I ain't taking sides.
R4: The one to beat for me is Nip 'n Tuck. My most serious concern is filligree gold. Risk Seeker and Revealing Belle are others I would respect given field size and due to the field size I have to give Jewel in Her Crown a chance as well.
R5: Off hand it seems that Consensual is not to be opposed. I wouldn't normally play a race like this, or would play the odds. However if consensual fails here it is thrown wide open and the most unlikely winner would emerge. On form Smangaliso and Supa Glow should be there, I wouldn't count on it though - then again both had some trouble in running last time out. If I was to play the odds I would take Kiribati as my upset shot.
R6: There are always horses in a race like this which haven't shown their hand yet, so don't see it as a punting oppurtunity. Mount Hood would be the one to beat, but for the oxygen depletion brigade - maybe he won't be in the finish. Playing the odds I would be heavily in favour of Qui Harbour. Keyman is one I would give much respect.
R7: imvho I cannot see any reason to look further than Earlswood, i noted a comment here about his being "outclassed", and I wondered how a 4 time winner is "outclassed"?, The way this one has won from off the pace, suggests we haven't seen the best of him yet. I would like to see Bill of Rights run, but what the odds of two Earlswoods in one race? Prince Asad, Apple A Day big dangers. Another danger is the pace - kill the pace and it's bingo time.
R8: What a Hard Race to call!Front House and Happy Spirit will resume battle here and this seems the starting point. Front house shifting last time out - could that race have been exposing her? Nordic Moon ran a cracker last time - can she repeat it in just a fed days? Then we shift attention to Leading Light and Albizia, Who wouldn't want shares in leading Light? Add Flight Queen to the Equation. Really not the Kind of Race I would punt, but forced to make a choice, I'm going with Flight Queen, terribly afraid of Leading Light.
R9: Those with winning Claims, Danish Silver and Just Like Al, Thandolwami, Russian Sage, Sorba el Griego, Kilcoy Castle & Classic Oasis, Profit Report. I'll Narrow it down to the decider between Danish Silver and Just Like Al, while they may have to beat Thandolwami. Not for pumting.
R10: Expect Rorke's Drift & Well Saddled to do battle, I'm leaning to Rorke's Drift, Halab in with a Chance, and if You want a fair chance at the upset look to Honey Snatcher, although it may be a race too early. Honey Snatcher giong to carry my Upset hopes.

In all, a day for the racing enthusiast, owners, trainers and Riders -- I would hardly be punting here. I Like Victory Hill for the day.

Nice card with some favs likely to win but the potential for 1 or 2 upsets.

Race 1, Electric Lightning at 4/1 looks the one to start the day.
Race 2, The juvenile, Cashmere doesnt have much to beat here but Spanish Emblem could be the lurker.
Race 3, Aquatint, despite bad draw and Unique, the roughie.
Race 4, Four Ladies will drive me Wild.
Race 5, Consensual, look no further.
Race 6, Mount Hood for Machete.
Race 7, Apple-a-Day.
Race 8, Gilded Minaret.
Race 9, Russian Sage looks hard to beat but no value so going for Kingdom Come.
Race 10, The Assyrian.

Ouzo !

Whoisu

Can the two year olds Cashmere and Elude and Avoid beat their older rivals,even with weight allowances.

Cuckoo

Whats the best bet today,to take a double with my best Electric lightning

Flight Alert Wrote:

---

> Whoisu
>
> Can the two year olds Cashmere and Elude and Avoid
> beat their older rivals,even with weight
> allowances.

We've seen it done recently, and it seems to be the fashion.....let me have a closer look. I will tell you though that i won't even look at the weight, I'll be looking at the horse's ability. Off hand it doesn't seem that Marcus thinks so - unless there is another reason he's riding the other one. Cashmere has an excellent chance, But i prefer Victory Hill, and if she did beat Victory Hill, then we could ascribe it to weight?

Little imagination from me today, Consensual and Russian Sage will do nicely thank you

Whoisu

Agree Marcus is on the right one jewel in her crown,In the other race 3 y'o Danehill dancer vs 2 y'o Rich Man's Gold interesting.

Falserail set at 15m,how important are the draws???????

Look at the course, and look at your selections running style.....try to picture where your horse would be at the jump and how the normal scramble for the rail will affect your horse. that's about all I know about the draws????

Maybe a long stretch in the middle of the race where a bad draw can be negated, or a long final straight where the horse can overcome the draw.

I prefer computer form statistics for draw info, but not very helpful in the big fields as the sample data is too small.

At greyville low numbered draws - as per computaform, would seem to be most advantageous, as the outside horses just cannot get to the rail for most of the race and running wide out for 90% of a race, should be a hindrance. Unless the horse likes to be held up, and do it's business in the finish.

Good trainers and Jockeys, plan the horses race around the draw though, and good horses should come through in the end.

But would a 15m false rail make life more difficult for horses drawn badly.

Flight Alert Wrote:

---

> Whoisu
>
> Agree Marcus is on the right one jewel in her
> crown,In the other race 3 y'o Danehill dancer vs 2
> y'o Rich Man's Gold interesting.
>
> Falserail set at 15m,how important are the
> draws???????


All I know about that is that Danehill Dancer 2yr's olds win more than 50% of all races they contest. Now there's a winning formula