Thread for "dumb/burning questions"

ALL(Most of them) of your questions will be better answered if you use past results...maybe of the last year or 2!!! Nothing beats FACTS!!! When you have the data...u look for consistencies.

Application is such. None but the best can follow up in a handicap straight after the maidens. Thus you need to shortlist the candidates. You need to identify the above average runners. Winning on debut, winning as they like, top breeding, above average speed ratings, The acid test though comes when assessing the competition to be faced in the handicap to be contested. If there are quality individuals contesting the race then the odds stack up even further.

The bottom line is that winning maiden into handicap is not a successful angle on its own, since even if you could pick the 20% that will win.....you could do far better just betting favourites with a 30% strike rate. So application is to ignore this angle as a meghod for picking winners....strike ratd us too low and odds normally too short.

On the issue of runs after a rest ignore that as a method for selecting winners on its own strength.

Better to profile the trainers...since trainers are creatures of habit, repeating what works well for them.

Learn which trainers run fresh and which dont. Then slso make sure to apply normal handucapping principles to the runner in question. A horse without ability will not win just because its rested, lose because its having 2nd run ir win because its run 3......it will win because of ability relevant to the other contestants in the race.

on maiden winners:

it depends on the rating given and the trainer's reaction to it. Low class handicaps and novice plates are generally similar to maidens in strength. nothing stops a maiden winner from following up if the rating given is reasonable and the trainer is trying....