Giving this horse another chance after the disappointment LTO. She definitely needed that, her performance behind Fresnaye speaks for itself with that one running a place in a GR1. Should be much fitter today and should go closer.
Race 3 - Talk of the Town 22/10
Very classy display to win his maiden and although he rises steeply in class here, he is highly rated. Was nominated for the Guineas so that's a good sign. Should be ready to take this step up now.
Race 6 - Last Winter 3/1
Top horse in the making and hasn't put a hoof wrong thus far. Delpech in particular has sung his praises a lot and from a top jock like that - you have to take notice. But his performances have also backed it up - his first win in the Cape was effortless and he really could have won by 5 more lengths had Delpech really asked him.
I don't see a problem with the extra 200m - he does take a bit of time to unwind so this long straight is ideal. Fair warning though, this is a big step up in class and although I think he's good, he'll also need to produce a career best performance. But this fella looks to be going on to better things in the future and he will need to win this.
Boxed exacta with Horizon as well for me.
Race 7 - Tap O' Noth 8/1, Do it Again 8/1, Sir Frenchie 20/1
I thought 8/1 for the pair of TON and Do It Again was very generous when betting and they're both around the 5/1 mark now with the latter being supported more.
TON is a very classy horse and from day one, Marshall said this could be a guineas horse. Still has a very impressive record and his only defeat was when making his comeback run. Will surely love the switch to the long straight as he's a type that needs to build his stride. While I don't think he's going to be as good as William Longsword, he's definitely classy enough to win this - which looks a weaker contest on paper than a year ago. From that draw, he'll go handy just as William did last year.
Do it Again will love the long straight as we know he runs on from a mile back. Really has a nice turn of foot as shown in the Selangor LTO and if not for a tiring Eyes Wide Open, could have finished even closer. But that wasn't the aim and surely this is. He'll still be coming from off them so draw 6 isn't too much of a positive or negative. With a clear passage, he'll be right there at the finish so look for those yellow silks at the business end.
Really impressed with Sir Frenchie's last run in the RTR. Miles out of his ground when turning for home and produced a really powerful finish to run 4th. On that, he will appreciate the extra 200m and while this is a much tougher affair, he could spring a surprise if the gaps open.
the Other horse I like is Sir David Baird who now that he has found the right distance really could trouble some of the home contingent.
Race 9 - Strathdon 19/10
Much improved horse now as a 4yo and goes for four in a row. Loved the step up in trip to 2400m LTO and produced his most impressive performance to date. Still looks well handicapped so must go close again.
Boxed exacta with I travel light who I make the biggest danger.
This is a tough card. Weather forecast for tomorrow is a strong southeaster. Tactics tricky as the course is running fast, but if you go handy then no cover from the wind.
Race 1: Township Melody disappointed last time in a race she looked to have at her mercy. At best she is the one to beat. Little Miss Me, Forehand and Hammie’s Fan have solid form. Miss Smarty Pants good debut and with natural improvement is my pick. First timers could upset.
Race 2: Bid Before Sunset has solid form but seems to like the second box. Flower of Carmel disappointed when favourite last time but should enjoy the step up in trip. Quite a few others with chances. Star Burst improved when going round the bend and is a weak pick.
Race 3: Anything can win this. What a Joker is on the up and is my first choice. Milden Spell came back from a year rest to win, and could easily go in again.
Race 4: Race 4: Ready Steady Go surprised on debut and with scope for improvement is my pick in a very open race.
Race 5: Another minefield.
Race 6: my bet of the day- I backed Last Winter at 3/1 when the betting opened, and he is my banker. Deo Juvente is the only one weighted to beat him, but I’m assuming further improvement from LW and DJ should need this run. Milton should ensure a decent pace if he adopts his usual tactics. Horizon has had a pipe opener over 1400m, and I make him the main danger on his July effort.
Race 7: This is the most open Guineas that I can remember for ages. My original pick has been scratched. If Snowdance was in here i think she could have won it. The form has been muddled by a number of runners having chased the big bucks in the sales races rather than planning towards this classic. The draws don’t help.
Wonderwall- top class at best, but last run was very disappointing.
Bold Respect- Consistent top form and a middling draw. Stable in form. Tries the trip for the first time but should have no problem on breeding. Should be in the first 3. Value at 8/1.
Captain and Master- capable at best, good draw but I think is best 1400m.
Tap O’ Noth- Improving and strong form. If overcoming the draw is the one to beat.
Rocket Countdown- surprised last time but clearly improving. Stable in form and fair draw. Respect.
Pack Leader- excellent form and a big runner if overcoming the draw. Good ew value at 20/1
Sir David Baird- Steps up in class, but would not surprise if he made the necessary improvement.
Like a Panther- up in class, needs to improve.
Purple Diamond- Gr 2 winner, plum draw but not sure to stay and last two below best.
Sir Frenchie- Not sure to stay, and stable companion seems preferred.
Do It Again- Has been backed, and is clearly progressive. Seems the stable elect, and should turn the tables on Rocket Countdown. Big runner.
White River- Another that is improving each run. Must include.
Undercover Agent- Not far off the best, but I think better 1400m.
Cot Campbell- Needs to improve to win, and stable companion seems preferred.
Race 8: Goodtime Gal is in a rich vein of form and is my pick at the weights, and gets a good draw. Star Express is well in at best, but needed her last run and wide draw. May still need this run. Nightingale is the class act, but has to give 2kg and also seemed to need her last run quite badly. Meryl is an interesting runner- has a poor draw but is well in at the weights. 25/1 is generous.
Race 9: Not much between the top 6 at the weights, but Strathdon gets the vote as he gets better each run. Cape Speed has had a good prep and should be ready for this one. My World is consistent and gets the trip well. Our Emperor and I Travel Light are slightly under sufferance, but are both serious runners.
Race 10: Not the easiest of races to end the day. No selection.
Last edit: 7 years 6 months ago by PeterD.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Tero, Lionel, 20 to 1, Tomtomq, Felix
Final pick for me Tap O' Noth - Win he is a champ and that draw might play into his hands as he pulls to being behind will force him to relax.[/quote]
I was with some guys from Marshall yard earlier in the week......the stable is SUPER confident. Tap has won from bad draws before......i'm just sharing what i heard[/quote]
Peekay. I personally think there is a BIG difference between drawn 7outa 10 ( small field ) as opposed to 14 / 14 tomorrow. Time will tell - I say just DO IT AGAIN !
Wonder if black Arthur will get into the July again this year without winning a race. Got to go close today and he's my exacta/swinger horse with last winter
i cant have last winter for today.i like horizon today and his run in the july was outstanding, so if he is fully fit, then he should win this gr2 race with ease today
