Canon Gold Cup

Greg...with you on this one. Bill of Rights will smoke this field.

This 'premier long distance event' title may fool the ostriches in the 'racing capital' of South Africa but don't bother to tune in if you are hoping to see a stayer of the calibre of Yeats on Saturday afternoon.

We currently don't/cannot breed decent stayers in South Africa so this field is, as usual, made up of a mixture of 'wannabees, maybees and neverwillbees'.

I have a pathological aversion to favourites so my fancies must be seen in this light. Nevertheless there appear to be some amongst the bottom feeders who might well fluke this race.

My form study of the race suggests the following to me :

The three major formlines :

Greyville 3000m 05.07.2008 - Appears reasonably valid. ( Equal Image )
Greyville 2200m 05.07.2008 - Suspect ( won by London Guest )
Greyville 2400m 07.06.2008 - Reasonably valid ( won by Bill Of Rights )

Firstly - I brass Desert Links . It disappointed in the J&B Reserve Stayers and then beat a clearly aged Major Bluff over the distance uner 55kg. Now back to the marathon trip with 57Kgs after attempting a number of shorter distances with varying degrees of success. And 33/10 ? Do me a favour.

Equal Image - Proven and fit. I think he should be favourite but that does not mean I fancy him. His shocking draw suggests he may have to be dropped out unless he wants to take a scenic tour of the back straight. Likely to interfere with the entire field if he comes from behind as he hangs under pressure.

Bill Of Rights - Should stay although I am not mad about the Fine Edge on the dams side. Up a pound from his win over Ser De Carrera ( whom I backed at 25/1! ) and who subsequently flopped next time out. Bad draw but may prefer to come from behind. You can have my share although ( surprisingly ) he is well priced at 8/1.

So let's move on to where you can make money or show no damage if you get beat :

Omaha Beach - Closely matched with Desert Links but gets Strydom and a good draw. Although I was tempted I missed the 12/1 but feel this may be a solid place proposition at 2/1. The win would be a bonus.

Winona - Been threatening for awhile. Beautifully drawn and will possibly race handy. Could skip clear whilst others are threading a path through the 'heart attack victims' in the home straight. Has Bill Of Rights in her sights at the weights. Don't be frightened by 20/1....just double up.

Membrado - Looks a solid runner on paper. Delpech also helps. Decent yard too. Will get Equal Image off the bit.

Long Dollar - This is where I plan to do my money. Takes me back to the famous Bound By Honour formline which almost fluked me a bar in the July. Spread a plate when beaten 3,55 lengths by Equal Image over 3000m. At turnover in the weights should beat the latter by about half a length whilst appearing to be one of the few consistently proven over the distance. Who knows what effect the spread plate had? Also my type of price at 20/1. OK draw and unfancied jockey contribute to the price ( Hey - but Stateway from PE with Hoffman aboard beat Surfing Home in this race so don't let detail put you off ).

Have a go - but stay away from those favourites!

Puffin Got 33/10 but have Links in a double with Buy and sell at 14/1 (68/1) total. But will be working around Links on the day with some others on the day.
How is Blue Tiger looking. For me had a decent run in JJ's race. worried about King James though

Thanks for the post Garrick, looks like the "field" for the pick 6 punters.

Great post garrick, thanks for the effort.

It's an excellent process for a punter to do, be nice if those with time on their hands can do the occational analysis on other races too. Whether you agree with the conclusion or not, going through it helps you form better opinions.

In my view, an extremely open race, they should be betting at least 5/1 the field; apart from the most likely contenders like Bill of Rights, Desert Links, Equal Image and Omaha Beach, one to not ignore is Likeithot, seems to me that this race has been his target (slightly off-putting that Marcus is riding the other Laird horse). On the Gold Bowl run he has Garrick's fancy (Long Dollar) beat, and he was running on in the Gold Vase, so the 3200 is right up his alley. Good draw, should be racing handy, and I definitely won't be leaving him out of the exotics.

Question anyone I am going to try Master of Note instead of the fancied runners any reason why he cannot beat Desert links again ?

Monty, not as crazy as it sounds first off; he gets the trip and on the Chairman's Cup run, MoN is 7 kg's better off with DL; should be more than enough to turn around the 5 lengths difference?

Perhaps they should be betting 6/1 the field! (Sorry Hacker, no 'because')

Thanks Frodo

He is extremely well and is a true stayer, dont worry abt his last few runs as he had a slight niggle....wonderful swinger chance.

Thanks Puffin All the best with your Runners

Great post Garrick.


Puffin, All the best with Desert Links, i hope it brings home the "bacon"