Race 1, Gerbera, have a look at it's debut run, this should not miss. Not only was it sow away, went up the middle, not gap, switched to the outside, no gap, then back to the middle, just could not find a way through. Gets away on terms today, the one they all have to beat, probably jump as favourite come race time.
Played the double with Lion Rampart at Kenilworth.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
Lovely meeting - but it does look as if several stables are suffering from some sort of virus - in the first Desert Cloud is out - 'suspected virus', Vulcanite - 'temperature'. Melech - 'virus' - so this would be the time to say 'horses are not machines and 'anything could go wrong' on a particular day and even a particular race; but we fight on - thoughts ....
R1: Seems likely to be fought out by Roaming Spirit, Fastnet Filly and the re-located (I believe) My One and Only - I prefer Fastnet Filly even though she might need it - but Crawford seems bullish
R2: Betting support has not stopped for the debutante Hong Kong (even though in the interview with the Peter stable, they said he will finish in the first 4 - I suppose FIRST is also in the first 4) - Amanatto comes of a break, so may need it a bit while Big Boy Bruce improved last time but has pulled a 1 draw - so I suspect Hong Kong will win
R3: Open handicap - again Royal Guide comes off a break (but not as long as Amanatto) - but he takes on some batlle-hardened opponents - the only horse who I do not fancy is Birthright,, but he get blinkers and an apie allowance - so if it were a P6 race, I'd go the field - King's Express as good a chance as the rest, and is my narrow first selection at the odds
R4: Not a lot against Taxi to the Moon - stand-side draw so should be right there; I think both Sheldon (tries blinkers - good form this track and trip and Lerena back in the irons) and Dreamland (3-month break, but a track and trip winer and drawn on what should be the right side) must have chances; Cosmic Star's form can't be faulted, while Chocolate Soldier is very quick, but I expect him to be collared in the last 100m especially from the 3 draw
R5: I think this is a 2-horse race; Fatal Flaw and World of Alice; WoA has beaten FF before, but the weights are favoring FF; Oxalis Gold might improve enough to upset the other 2
R6: Again it looks like it will be fought out by 2 runners; The Specialist might have needed his last tun over a shorter trip, while Legend of Arthur was beaten by The Specialist before, but in that race LoA was drawn wide - so I think it might get close here; Fire Attack tries a little more ground and is coming off a long break - but looks very capable and then Musical Score also tries more ground but has a wide draw
R7: As per usual, the Charity Mile looks very competitive; Dave the King has a big weight and could be run out of it in the last bit; not a lot on exposed form between Francis Ethel and Silver Sanctuary; then we have the much improved Back to Business - I did not fancy him in his last win, but he did win convincingly - looks well handicapped again, but I have my doubts (again) on whether he would be as effective over 1600m especially on the stand-side track - and he has a wide draw; the other de Kock runner Safe Passage has come down to a realistic rating and from a good draw must have a chance as well, while the mare Celtic Rumours also looks well in - tries further, but the way she runs I think she will get the extra - more concerning is that she seems as stubborn as the proverbial mule
R8: Very interesting Handicap; at the weights I think both Oilvia's Way and Forgiveness have their work cut out; first selection for me is Donna Mo from United Council; Sukhumvit might win, but no value imo so I'm including all of Cape Lights, Littlemarysunshine and Lady Fallon
R9: Competitive over an extended trip; it would depend on how one reads the form, but for me, Explosive Bond could be the right one at the weights; None Other best in and a big danger; none of the others in the betting chanceless, while even the old soldier Nebraas has a chance if returing to best
R10: Market support for New Mexico - looks to have the potential and comes off a short break, but the current odds does not entice me; many others bar Diwali Rocket (at least he is named to match the day) and Global Impact have chances
Enjoy
Last edit: 7 months 2 weeks ago by Frodo.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Dave Scott, Magi, Pirhobeta, Sammy Silver
Royal Guide the total opposite of El Romiachi.....Cost R1.4 million...stakes R220 000.
Six years old now.Training fees and vets around R20 000 per month for four years.
These poor okes could be down a cool R2 million.
And in race 3 today the jockey didn't persevere and pulled the horse out the race.
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