World Sports Betting Cape Town Met Day - Jan 25

My dartboard guesses for tomorrow...

Race 2 - 4 Double Grand Slam...too short for me to have a bet...
Race 3 - 6 Joy and Peace
Race 4 - 1 Mucho Dinero
Race 5 - 6 The Grey King
Race 7 - 4 Dyce
Race 10 - 3 Green Garnet
Race 11 - 1 Sugar Mountain
Race 12 - 10 Carriacou

And maybe Race 8 - 1 Red Palace...2.5kgs allowance, good draw, form over distance, form jockey...

All the best to fellow Clanners...
 

.......although I have not yet seen any official advertising yet.....it seems that the Met will be broadcast on SABC 3 from 14hr30 until 17hr00....whoohoo.

Presenter/Commentator Selections

Big Race

Darryl Maree: Eight On Eighteen
Nino Podesta: Oriental Charm
Cecil Mthembu: Red Palace
Lyall Cooper: Royal Aussie

Other selections
Alistair Cohen: Race 2 Double Grand Slam
MJ Byleveld: Race 2 Double Grand Slam, Race 4 Mucho Dinero, Race 8 Rascallion, Race 9 Regulation
Rahiel Radhakrishna: Race 3 - Saartjie, Race 5 - Fibonacci, Race 6 - Kyalami Girl, Race 11 - The Real Prince

.....I left out my pick for the baby race and will add it later tomorrow.....it may be an absolute lulu....just imagine if a real cheapie not purchased at any of the flashy Cape Sales runs them off their feet....huh

.....one would assume that the baby race is packed with class now having the sales topping ZAR3.2BAR filly on top of the boards but all talk and action to get this well related filly to the track on Met day is for the Swiss billionaire owner.
.....but here I go with a R70K purchase from a far more recent KZN yearling sale that is not that smartly bred but the EC breeder has retained a share here as the dam a hard knocking sprinting mare raced in PE for 4 wins in 40+ races and this her 3rd foal already shows similar speed....and although not a Greeff fan he has gone this raiding route with babies before and surprised the mountain goats.....wink

Note scratchings this morning .... Whatastar in the 1st, Holding Thumbs in the 4th and Walk With Me in the 10th ....

My fancies for the big day .

Race 1
Leaning towards Clair de Lune (3) to get things off to a decent start (e/w)

Race 2
Looks like a two horse race with fatal flaw, preference for Double Grand slam-1 (best bet on the card).

Race 3
Open race but I do like Rainbow Lorikeet (7)  based on the info from Candice Bass, thats what swayed me 

Race 4
Poets Warrior is a good upcoming stayer........i'm therefore leaning heavily on Triple Time (7) .

Race 5
Tough race , healthy respect to the "grey king" and "captain's west" but i will go with Let it be said (10) for e/w chance

Race 6
For me this is too competitive field, i would stay out of it but if i'm put in a corner i will go with Summer lilly(. I will stay out 

Race 7
Gimme a Prince (6) giving this horse one more chance. I think it will be flying at the finish.

Race 8
I like Eight on eithteen nothing against him but somehow i'm so for Red Palace (1) to grab a big race (i don't have a reason)

Race 9
The talk of the town is on Regulation (9).........so i will follow like wise as they say "follow the money"

Race 10
Please be True -10 (my 2nd best bet on the card) wasn't given a good ride last time , I know as I backed him , with him again today , tough race though .

Race 11
Snow Pilot (13) to redeem himself from the Kings plate even though i'm in a fence therefore an E/W for me .

Race 12
Wide open finale , going for US of A (14) to close of the event

Snaith kept referencing that Saartjie cast a shoe in its previous race and that he believes Saartjie the horse to beat. I couldn't find anything in the Stripes report on this.

Can anyone confirm?

If we can put a line through that then Saartjie has Rainbow Lorikeet beat at the weights on his previous runs.

 

The 2025 WSB Cape Met at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth
Justin Snaith comments:
_Race 1_
- Clair De Lune has superb form and a worthy favourite but poses little value. While she could win a race of this nature, her betting odds are restricted.
- She's My World is a class sort but a backward type. She’ll mature into a smart filly but this race may be a month or two early for her.
- Wild Wild Green has come to the fore at the right time. She’s catching pigeons back home and is fantastic value at 6-1. Win / place bet.
_
Race 2_
- Double Grand Slam is in fabulous form and she will be her usual aggressive self. She’s in excellent shape and she’s not coming to Kenilworth for a tea party!

_Race 3_
- Gimmethatpearl tries a trip for the first time. Her pedigree suggests she’ll not see out the 2000m trip but her work is superb.
- ~Lady Springfield~
- ⁠Lickety Split is as game as they come but faces a tremendous task at the weights.
- Ignore Saartjie’s previous start - she’s the one to beat.

_Race 4_
- Mucho Dinero may find this 2800m on the far side but he’s returning to his best form of late.
- Triple Time tried some prep races over shorter trips for the Cape Met which didn’t pay dividends. He’s now over his optimal trip and he’ll run a monster. Great value at 5-1.

_Race 5_
- Let It Be Said is well-weighted and overdue. He’ll run right on top of them.
- Lightning Glow is better over further and may struggle to produce his best form over this short trip.
- Makazole is back to his best and cannot be left out any bets @ 7-1. He’s a runner!
- Song To The Moon prefer 1600-1800m but is an honest as they come. Upset potential.
- The Grey King is having his last prep for the Big Race Cap. He’s a class sort and deserves some respect.
- Tout A Fait was a tad disappointing last time out and will need to improve to feature.

_Race 6_
- I'm So Pritti will prefer this extra trip but needs to produce her very best to make a noise.
- Siddeley is capable and in fine form of late. Include in exotic bets.
- Summer Lily has been slightly unlucky this summer so include her in all permutations.
- ⁠Mai Sensation will be the filly to beat at the weights and is the wrong price at 10-1. Also include Symphony in White despite jockey choices.

_Race 8 WSB MET_
- Eight On Eighteen has had a near perfect preparation but winning the Met is no small task for a young horse - you need to be sensational. If he stays the 2000m trip and rises to the big occasion, then he’ll not disappoint his followers. This colt will be a far better horse this time next year. He has definite winning claims and deserves his place in this Group One field. Richard Fourie at 54kg is a great combination!
- Future Swing is a lurker with some progressive and unlucky warmups coming into this race. He’s not without a chance.
- Magic Verse continues to improve and could defy all odds by pulling off a magical upset. He’s as honest as they come - he’ll be right there.
- Pacaya is coming towards the end of a magnificent career and he’s been the most incredible horse. He deserves his place in this field and his last run was eye-catching but he has to step up.
- Royal Aussie is a classic miler and will need a slow pace to be effective. He’s a seriously good weight-for-age horse and never runs a poor race.

_Race 9_
- Dawn Till Dusk’s last run was poor and he’ll need to return to his best to feature.
- Express Yourself may find this jump a little too much too soon but his last win was impressive.
- Native Ruler is improving each week and he’ll relish this extra distance. One to follow.
- Regulation has peaked at the perfect time. He will deliver a sterling performance.
- Sail The Seas has been awesome - four wins from 7 starts. He’s the horse to beat if he stays the 1800m trip.

_Race 10_
- Legal Counsel has a few lengths to find but is putting in some nice work back home.
- Mente Et Manu is better than his form suggests. Include in your bets.
- Please Be True would prefer a mile but he’s smashing everything he goes against back home. Expect a monster effort from him if he overcomes his 10 draw.
- Unicorn Alert has been popping up of late and is capable of a big effort.

_Race 11_
- Get Impressed is ready and will run to his best form.
- Rapidash comes back in trip and should find the frame.
- Snow Pilot is an absolute beast over this trip. He’ll take a lot of beating.

_Race 12_
- African Prince returns from a long break and may need this first run back.
- Scottish Kiss was impressive against weaker last time out. He looks immaculate of late.
- Tough Terrain never saw daylight last time out. Big runner at 12-1.
- Un Bel Di flew home over five furlongs last time out when retuning from a holiday. Great price!

My main race analysis with my own odds line attached. I provide a pace analysis which may give some indication of who may be favored. {Disclaimer: Any errors are unintentional and no advice here is intended to lead readers to spend money on the race. Doing so is entirely at the reader's disrection and at their own risk}.

MY MAIN RACE MET ANALYSIS

This year's Cape Town Met presents a fascinating puzzle with a mix of proven Grade 1 performers,
progressive types, and some intriguing long shots. The pace scenario is likely to be set
by LITIGATION, RED PALACE, ORIENTAL CHARM, and MONTIEN, who will be competing
with each other from good draws to take the lead (except for MONTIEN who may use himself up
coming from draw #15 to come over or race wide), thereby allowing their constant duelling for
the lead to set the race up for horses who can race prominently or those who have a strong finishing
kick such as SEE IT AGAIN, RASCALLION, and EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN. The race is open
enough for a few of the long shots to potentially surprise. The key will be how the race unfolds
tactically and which horses can best adapt to the pace and track position.

Race 8 Odds Line
 10 EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN 4-1 One of the best three-year-olds in the country, this son
of Lancaster Bomber is a strong favourite. He goes past 1600m for the first time but should
be suited by the distance given his sire won at 2100m. In-form Richard Fourie in the saddle
and three-year-olds have a good record in the Met. Huge runner. A versatile runner who is
primarily a closer, which could favor him given the strong early pace scenario for the race.
 12 SEE IT AGAIN 6-1 Both his career Grade 1 victories have come over 2000m, one of
which was in the Cape Derby at Kenilworth. Gelding has not brought the improvement
expected and was a disappointing fifth in the Betway Summer Cup before finishing last in
the recent King's Plate. But you can make excuses for his last two runs and no doubting he
will be a dangerous customer if he finds form on the day. A strong closer who could benefit
from the fast pace.
 3 ORIENTAL CHARM 7-1 The 2024 Durban July hero failed to produce his best form
when unplaced in the King's Plate after winning the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes over the
same distance. Will enjoy the extra 400m here and runs for an in-form stable. Needs to be
included in all bets. A versatile runner who can race prominently but needs to have the
lead.
 16 RASCALLION 10-1 Showed tremendous courage in holding off Magic Verse to win
the Premier Trophy by a short head. Has three wins, a second and a third to his credit in
five runs since fitted with blinkers including a 0.40-length second to Double Superlative in
last year's Met. Obvious contender. An early stalking type with a good finishing kick who
will have to use himself up coming across or race wide.
 1 RED PALACE 12-1 Runner-up in the Grade 1 Cartier Paddock Stakes, this filly comes
into the race in prime condition. She won the Grade 2 Gold Bracelet over 2000m at
Hollywoodbets Greyville last season, so there's no question about her staying the distance.
From pole position, she could upset but being a front-runner she could be vulnerable if the
pace is too fast, given the other front-running types.
 15 MONTIEN 14-1 Defied odds of 75-1 when finishing second in the King's Plate and a
repeat of that run over this longer distance would make him a contender here. But he
finished unplaced in last year's race and still has to prove he can see out 2000m against the
best. Has won over 1800m in weaker company. A front-runner/stalker who could be
vulnerable if the pace is too fast.
 4 FUTURE SWING 16-1 Ran on well to finish a 1.20-length fourth in the Grade 2 Premier
Trophy over 1800m and is 1kg better off with all those who finished ahead of him. He is
not well weighted with the top runners in the field but is quite capable of running into the
Quartet. A stalker/closer who can make a move in the final stages.
 11 MAGIC VERSE 20-1 His last two runs have seen his merit rating skyrocket from 85
to 114, so there's no denying that he is on the up. He has won over 2000m and was beaten
a nose by Rascallion in the Premier Trophy last time with Litigation a neck back in third
and Future Swing (1kg better off) less than a length away fourth. In with a money chance. A
stalker/closer who can make a move in the final stages.
 7 ROYAL AUSSIE 23-1 Talented five-year-old gelding who appears to be just a touch
below the best around. Ran well to finish fourth in the King's Plate after receiving a bump
at the start, but he is suspect over this 400m longer trip. Does possess a strong finish and
that does make him a contender for the Quartet if the pace is sedate. A stalker/closer who
can race prominently or settle in mid-pack.
 5 ATTICUS FINCH 28-1 After his spectacular victory in the Summer Cup over 2000m,
he disappointed in the King's Plate when trying the left-hand Kenilworth course for the
first time. There's no denying his ability, the only question is whether he will produce his
best on the track this time. A closer/deep closer who could benefit from a fast pace.
 6 LITIGATION 33-1 The six-year-old has produced two excellent performances at
Kenilworth leading up to the Met and is definitely the dark horse to keep safe. From a good
draw and with Muzi Yeni aboard, he looks one of the value bets on the card at 5-1 for a
place. A front-running early type horse who could be vulnerable if the pace is too fast, but
has a good draw to get to the front easily.
 13 BARATHEON 50-1 This six-year-old gelding was beaten 2.85 lengths in the Premier
Trophy last time out and at the weights has little chance of reversing the form with any of
the six Met runners who finished in front of him. Will have to make significant
improvement to feature. A closer who will need a fast pace to be competitive.
 8 PACAYA 66-1 Has a second go at winning the Met after finishing way behind last year.
The Snaith yard has always held this gelded son of Trippi in high regard, but unfortunately
he has flattered to deceive more often than not. Fair effort behind Rascallion last time. A
closer who will need a fast pace to be competitive.
 14 MASTER REDOUTE 66-1 Brave entry as the six-year-old Querari-gelding has not
run since winning the 3200m Gold Cup last July and makes his seasonal reappearance after
a 181-day layoff. He does race well fresh and with three Grade 3 victories to his name,
deserves his spot in the line-up. His recent record suggests marathon distances are now his
game. A closer who will need a fast pace to be competitive.
 2 AL MUTHANA 75-1 This seven-year-old gelding has run poorly of late and was beaten
almost 15 lengths in the Grade 1 King's Plate. He does have class, but will need to make
drastic improvement to feature over a distance in which he has failed to place in all three
starts. A closer who will need a fast pace to be competitive.
 17 ZAPATILLAS 75-1 Running thereabouts but his last win was in the KZN Guineas way
back in 2022. So he's without a victory in 994 days and it's hard to visualise him getting
back on the winning path in this contest. Finished 5.10 lengths behind Jet Dark in the Met
two years ago and makes little appeal from the widest draw. A closer who will need a fast
pace to be competitive.

Thoughts .....  weather looks very good, (strange the pen is set at 27 around the turn and 23 down the straight ?) with a head-wind of around 20 kph predicted, so bar a suicidal pace, I believe most winners will race handy ....

R1: We all know juveniles are bound to improve at different rates and we don't really know how the PE form would stand up against these - but based on her last run Clair de Lune would be the one to beat - so either bank that in the first JP or take the field - especially note the support for Churchillian ....

R2: Everything points to Double Grand Slam, but she has been on the boil since Oct; Fatal Flaw - nobody know how she will stack up against her elders, but she seems very good and if DGS fluffs her lines, she would be the one to take advantage; Rocapina tries 1600, but she also seems a very nice filly, so could surprise; Rascova has often faced DGS, but I feel that when she beat DGS, DGS was not at best   

R3: Competitive - Saartjie tries blinkers, so who knows if she could put her last effort behind her; Joy and Peace - again we don't really know how the PE form will stand up (but she seems to hold Gold Poker Game); Rainbow Lorikeet sure to be thereabouts; I think Indian Ocean not to be ignored; don't really fancy the others, but perhaps Omikami with no weight on her back can surprise

R4: Stayers; Poet's Warrior tough as nails, with Triple TIme finding lots of support in the market and did run a shd 2nd in this race last year, so obvious chance; Mucho Dinero last time showed that he gets the trip and is competitively rated; Future Pearl has the class and needed his last run, so would also have a lively chance; the only other one that I rate with a chance at the weights, is Love is a Rose, who surely ran below form last time

R5: Take a pin

R6: Take another pin

R7: Dyce the obvious one; Gimme a Prince imo needs at least 1200, so the main danger could be King of the Gauls (talked up by Mr Bloomberg); Asiye Phambile imo faces stronger, so perhaps the PE visitor Cruise Control could make them run over 1000

R8: Lots of runners have lots against them, so perhaps an upset; safest to float in exotics imo would be Oriental Magic and Red Palace

R9: Regulation reportedly put up a storming work-out against Eight on Eighteen and Fourie apparantly jumped ship from Sail the Seas; this is open though and lots can step up

R10: Find yet another pin

R11: All Out for Six - imo best bet on the card

R12: Would probably be running out of pins ....

Enjoy