Co-mingling?
- Frodo
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Re: Re: Co-mingling?
15 years 5 months ago
Food for thought, Rob.
One of the arguments always put forward on why we should support the tote and not bookmakers, is that the stakes pot will suffer if the money goes to the bookmakers and not to the tote (and plenty of figures / stats support this argeument). So, as an owner, I think I then have a case against P (and the RA for that matter) for jeopardizing my income from stakes earned, as they are (by their inability to manage this co-mingling) driving punters to bet with the bookmakers. Or am I missing something?
One of the arguments always put forward on why we should support the tote and not bookmakers, is that the stakes pot will suffer if the money goes to the bookmakers and not to the tote (and plenty of figures / stats support this argeument). So, as an owner, I think I then have a case against P (and the RA for that matter) for jeopardizing my income from stakes earned, as they are (by their inability to manage this co-mingling) driving punters to bet with the bookmakers. Or am I missing something?
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- mr hawaii
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Re: Re: Co-mingling?
15 years 5 months ago
"My best bit was Attenborough's statement that "our overseas customers object strongly".....crap...wheres the evidence/survey...he doesn't even know what his local customers want or object too!"
Here in lies the problem - "overseas customers object strongly" so we'll accomadate them - "LOCAL CUSTOMERS scream in agony and we'll give them more of the same and ignore them !!! Charity begins at home mate and if you treat me like crap at home I'll move out and you'll be left with selling a weak product to your newly found family!!!
Here in lies the problem - "overseas customers object strongly" so we'll accomadate them - "LOCAL CUSTOMERS scream in agony and we'll give them more of the same and ignore them !!! Charity begins at home mate and if you treat me like crap at home I'll move out and you'll be left with selling a weak product to your newly found family!!!
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- Bob Brogan
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- zoro
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Re: Re: Co-mingling?
15 years 5 months ago
Scotia good job keep the banners off,we should all become like the unions in England and strike.
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- Archangel
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Re: Re: Co-mingling?
15 years 5 months ago
Tommy_Hotspur Wrote:
> !00k less taxes and admin charges = R87k.....THis
> figure gets shared amongst the winning tickets and
> so a dividend gets declared.
How certain of this are you? My calculations suggest it is only about R79K that goes back to punters. R20k due to fees and taxes and another +-R1k due to rounding down the dividends.
Here is an example from the race 2 win pool today:
Horse number, Dividend, Implied probability
1 - 3.80 - 26.32%
2 - 46.50 - 2.15%
3 - 2.10 - 47.62%
4 - 3.30 - 30.30%
5 - 24.60 - 4.07%
6 - 8.80 - 11.36%
7 - 21.90 - 4.57%
Total implied probability = 126.4% and 100%/126.4% gives a payout of 79.1%
You can also work it out from the net pool and implied betting volume: The net win pool was R60 056
Horse number, Betting volume
1 - R15 804
2 - R 1 292
3 - R28 598
4 - R18 199
5 - R 2 441
6 - R 6 825
7 - R 2 742
Total Volume is R75 901. Therefore R15 825 is fees and tax, and the pool of R60 056 is only 79.1% of the gross pool. (In reality, the total amount bet is less due to dividend rounding, and the not all of the net pool is paid out. But the effect is the same.)
Discounting any skill, this is like playing on a roulette table with 8 to 9 zeros.
Or is there something I'm missing?
> !00k less taxes and admin charges = R87k.....THis
> figure gets shared amongst the winning tickets and
> so a dividend gets declared.
How certain of this are you? My calculations suggest it is only about R79K that goes back to punters. R20k due to fees and taxes and another +-R1k due to rounding down the dividends.
Here is an example from the race 2 win pool today:
Horse number, Dividend, Implied probability
1 - 3.80 - 26.32%
2 - 46.50 - 2.15%
3 - 2.10 - 47.62%
4 - 3.30 - 30.30%
5 - 24.60 - 4.07%
6 - 8.80 - 11.36%
7 - 21.90 - 4.57%
Total implied probability = 126.4% and 100%/126.4% gives a payout of 79.1%
You can also work it out from the net pool and implied betting volume: The net win pool was R60 056
Horse number, Betting volume
1 - R15 804
2 - R 1 292
3 - R28 598
4 - R18 199
5 - R 2 441
6 - R 6 825
7 - R 2 742
Total Volume is R75 901. Therefore R15 825 is fees and tax, and the pool of R60 056 is only 79.1% of the gross pool. (In reality, the total amount bet is less due to dividend rounding, and the not all of the net pool is paid out. But the effect is the same.)
Discounting any skill, this is like playing on a roulette table with 8 to 9 zeros.
Or is there something I'm missing?
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- Andrewest
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- Andrewest
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Re: Re: Co-mingling?
15 years 5 months ago
Sell Phumelela shares..
huge drop in the next 2 months when the scandal breaks...
huge drop in the next 2 months when the scandal breaks...
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- Justanotherpunter
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Re: Re: Co-mingling?
15 years 5 months ago
6-1 shot pays R2.30.Maybe it is 'Back To The Future'.
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- BATMAN
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- Archangel
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Re: Re: Co-mingling?
15 years 5 months ago
Another crazy tote payout. Except for exotics perhaps, you just have to stick with the bookies.
Tote favourites have won every race so far, but only two of those were bookie favourites.
Tote favourites have won every race so far, but only two of those were bookie favourites.
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- Greg Murrell
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Re: Re: Co-mingling?
15 years 5 months ago
Hi all,
Hope the attached PDF file works. This is from the Tabonline WIN BET TREND,
and was taken as the field for Race 4 jumped, and then again about 60 seconds later. Look at the trend on no 5 - from R5.90 when they jumped to R2.30 when
the race closed (page between the 2 pages).
The horse opened 4/1 and drifted to 6/1, with 7/1 on offer on Interbet, and only about R10,000 traded on Interbet. To return R2.30 from a pool of R68269 means that about R29682 was wagered on this horse on the tote.
Attached files Kenilworth Race 4.pdf (29.8 KB)Â
Hope the attached PDF file works. This is from the Tabonline WIN BET TREND,
and was taken as the field for Race 4 jumped, and then again about 60 seconds later. Look at the trend on no 5 - from R5.90 when they jumped to R2.30 when
the race closed (page between the 2 pages).
The horse opened 4/1 and drifted to 6/1, with 7/1 on offer on Interbet, and only about R10,000 traded on Interbet. To return R2.30 from a pool of R68269 means that about R29682 was wagered on this horse on the tote.
Attached files Kenilworth Race 4.pdf (29.8 KB)Â
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- Justanotherpunter
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Re: Re: Co-mingling?
15 years 5 months ago
I must say up until now I have not been convinced that it is a hacker,but look at these:
Race 1
Win 2 = R 2.10 (18-10)
Place 2 = R 1.00
Place 4 = R 1.20
Place 5 = R 3.30
Swinger 2/4 = R 3.20
Swinger 2/5 = R 3.70
Swinger 4/5 = R 8.80
Exacta 2/4 = R 9.10
Trifecta 2/4/5 = R 57.00
Quartet 2/4/5/12 = R 684.50
Favourite 2
Scratched -
Race 2
Win 3 = R 2.10 (2-1)
Swinger 3/6 = R 3.40
Swinger 3/4 = R 1.90
Swinger 4/6 = R 4.30
Exacta 3/6 = R 15.60
Trifecta 3/6/4 = R 63.20
Quartet 3/6/4/2 = R 365.50
Double 2/3 = R 5.60
Favourite 3
Scratched -
Race 3
Win 3 = R 3.00 (3-1)
Place 3 = R 1.10
Place 11 = R 2.50
Place 4 = R 3.40
Swinger 3/11 = R 3.80
Swinger 3/4 = R 8.00
Swinger 4/11 = R 12.60
Exacta 3/11 = R 14.40
Trifecta 3/11/4 = R 196.20
Quartet 3/11/4/2 = R 1864.90
Double 3/3 = R 7.80
Favourite 3
Scratched -
Race 4
Win 5 = R 2.30 (6-1)
Place 5 = R 1.00
Place 3 = R 1.90
Place 8 = R 7.10
Swinger 3/5 = R 3.30
Swinger 5/8 = R 18.50
Swinger 3/8 = R 13.80
Exacta 5/3 = R 17.10
Trifecta 5/3/8 = R 333.90
Quartet 5/3/8/7 = R 2238.90
Double 3/5 = R 23.50
Favourite 5
Scratched
With the internet and bookie betting freely available,why would anybody be betting on our tote as opposed to a bookmaker.
For once I am listening to Andrewest and agreeing something is definitely rotten here.
Race 1
Win 2 = R 2.10 (18-10)
Place 2 = R 1.00
Place 4 = R 1.20
Place 5 = R 3.30
Swinger 2/4 = R 3.20
Swinger 2/5 = R 3.70
Swinger 4/5 = R 8.80
Exacta 2/4 = R 9.10
Trifecta 2/4/5 = R 57.00
Quartet 2/4/5/12 = R 684.50
Favourite 2
Scratched -
Race 2
Win 3 = R 2.10 (2-1)
Swinger 3/6 = R 3.40
Swinger 3/4 = R 1.90
Swinger 4/6 = R 4.30
Exacta 3/6 = R 15.60
Trifecta 3/6/4 = R 63.20
Quartet 3/6/4/2 = R 365.50
Double 2/3 = R 5.60
Favourite 3
Scratched -
Race 3
Win 3 = R 3.00 (3-1)
Place 3 = R 1.10
Place 11 = R 2.50
Place 4 = R 3.40
Swinger 3/11 = R 3.80
Swinger 3/4 = R 8.00
Swinger 4/11 = R 12.60
Exacta 3/11 = R 14.40
Trifecta 3/11/4 = R 196.20
Quartet 3/11/4/2 = R 1864.90
Double 3/3 = R 7.80
Favourite 3
Scratched -
Race 4
Win 5 = R 2.30 (6-1)
Place 5 = R 1.00
Place 3 = R 1.90
Place 8 = R 7.10
Swinger 3/5 = R 3.30
Swinger 5/8 = R 18.50
Swinger 3/8 = R 13.80
Exacta 5/3 = R 17.10
Trifecta 5/3/8 = R 333.90
Quartet 5/3/8/7 = R 2238.90
Double 3/5 = R 23.50
Favourite 5
Scratched
With the internet and bookie betting freely available,why would anybody be betting on our tote as opposed to a bookmaker.
For once I am listening to Andrewest and agreeing something is definitely rotten here.
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