Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750397 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen created the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Will post my ratings race by race as i go on ....
Will post in following format.
Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

Race 4 1200 5bar race
111 Cirillo 103 yes he ran 8 points lower than his rating!!! Handicapper wont change rating
92 elusive trader 96 handicapper will give 4 points
92 seventh sea 94 handicapper will give 2 points
93 palace chapel 93 linehorse
92 Comanici 92 linehorse
86 Varsity lover 92 ...yes , 6 points better than rating and handicapper cannot touch her now .blackbook!!! In fillies handicap in near future you can put and take if she repeat.
103 temple grafin 91
89 mastagambit 90 linehorse
96 Arabian 89
88 princess ruler 87 linehorse
85 Captainofthesea 86 linehorse
105 van halen 85 ....

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2 months 3 weeks ago - 2 months 3 weeks ago #750398 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Race 5 1600 5bar

This race is a true nightmare to handicap.... basicly impossible and this race WILL make or break careers !!! And the best part is that it was a true run race , much quicker than majorca.
If you use twist of fate , vardy or majestic mozart as linehorse then one world(117) ran either to a 118 or 95 or 103 rating .... so you will quickly say twist of fate must be the linehorse ? Problem is then that the following horses ran above their ratings :
Vardy 23 points above ????
Skye lane 27 points above???
Majestic mozart 15 points above ???
Vikram 21 points above???
Chimichuri 13 points below
Russian beat 9 points above???
Silvanos pride 12 points below
Nao faz mal 12 points above ???
Mr greenlight 3 points above
Sherwood forsest 16 points above ???? 2nd last !!!


I checked every angle and all i say is that some horses going to get hurt or they way way way better than current handicap and are all shoe inns in a handicap next time .
This formline should be closely monitored and will either prove disaster or very very profitable to follow .
Good luck with making a call here mr handicapper , lucky or unlucky they can only adjust up on the first 3 because its a non-blactype race where handicapper cannot use any other than 2nd place or 3rd place as linehorse .
Formline for blackbook to follow very closely!!!
Last Edit: 2 months 3 weeks ago by Zietsman Oosthuizen.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750400 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Race 6 cape flying 1000m

Will post in following format.
Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

Very easy race to handicap .... 5 horses to prove linehorse .

111 kasimir 115 ... handicapper will probably give 5 points
118 bold respect 112 although running 6 points less , handicapper probably wont drop rating.
106 search party 111 ... will get 5 points by handicapper
110 pacific trader 110 linehorse , and handicapper will use also
111 trip to heaven 110 linehorse
105 sand and sea 106 linehorse
109 speedpoint 106
112 attenborough 106
107 Dutch philip 106 linehorse
99 sir frenchie 104 ... blackbook note .... next time in handicap will be tough to beat with 5 points the handicapper cant penalise him now with.
102 pleasetomeetyou 102 linehorse

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750401 by Andycap
Andycap replied the topic: Re:Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Thank you Ziets. What about the other races?

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750402 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Will post in following format.
Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

Race 7 Derby 2000
Also a true run race ! Today they never crawld . This race again 4 other horses can confirm the linehorse that should be taken and its basicly straight forward .

92 atyaab 98 ....handicapper will probably give him 7 points
94 charles 97 ...handicapper will give 3 points
86 Herodotus 93 .... handicapper will give 7 points
93 Bunker hunt 93 linehorse
96 Helens ideal 92
103 santa clara 91
89 senatla 89 confirm linehorse
92 hudoo magic 88
84 sailing lizard 86 confirm linehorse ( put small note to follow in blackbook)
93 Ovation award 85
87 belgorion 83
79 line editor 81 confirm linehorse ( include small note in blackbook)
82 Seattle force 79 confirm linehorse .

The field was poor against other years but Eyes wide shut ran only 4 points better last year when he won than Atyaab.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750403 by Mossel
Mossel replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Tanx ziets

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750405 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Will post other 3 races in the morning but again like last year with african night sky i said same day as sunmet that he will open up fav for the july .....

DOUBLEMINT WILL OPEN UP FAV FOR THE JULY AND KAMPALA KAMPARI WILL BE 2ND FAV ......
DOUBLEMINT DONT GET THE 13 POINTS AND KAMPALA NOT THE 9 POINTS THEY RAN ABOVE THEIR RATINGS !!!!!

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750407 by mydada
mydada replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion

Zietsman Oosthuizen wrote: Will post other 3 races in the morning but again like last year with african night sky i said same day as sunmet that he will open up fav for the july .....

DOUBLEMINT WILL OPEN UP FAV FOR THE JULY AND KAMPALA KAMPARI WILL BE 2ND FAV ......
DOUBLEMINT DONT GET THE 13 POINTS AND KAMPALA NOT THE 9 POINTS THEY RAN ABOVE THEIR RATINGS !!!!!


if those two are favourites for july then we in the poorhouse already

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750409 by zain
zain replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
If any of soqrat or cascapedia qualifies we should see a Mike De Kock speech this year.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750429 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Race 8 Majorca

Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

109 clouds unfold 115 handicapper will probably make her 116
117 lady in black 112 will probably stay 117
110 front and centre 112 will go up to 112
110 freshnaye 110 linehorse
114 snowdance 109
107 rose in bloom 107 confirm linehorse
105 mayabi gold 105 confirm linehorse
103 Love to boogie 100
101 freedom charter 97
98 sylvan on fire 93
106 fiorella 93
100 Goodtime gal 91

The ride of the day in my opinion was Aldo Domeyr . Watched replay several times , he stalked Superman ( who had his sight on snowdance with 400m to go )on the outside and got into cloud unfold early without superman noticing him , at that stage superman cruised without moving a muscle with snowdance his target to run down in final 200m ..... only when aldo pulled next to him full of runnimg he realised he got caught flatfooted and got into front and centre but it was too late ... aldo got him and put the race to bed.. the Barzalona on poir moi celebration was a bit surprising but he knew he won outsmarting the best jock. Just my opinion. Lady in black ran a little below her ability but she had a very very hard race just 3 weeks ago . She have both these 3 year olds if the clash again .
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2 months 3 weeks ago #750469 by PeterD
PeterD replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Hi Ziets
Agree with most of your analysis.
The Derby I would use Helen’s Ideal as the line horse as most of the colts in the first 4 are on the upgrade, so that would add 4 points to your others.

CTS 1600. I would use One World as the line horse as he confirmed earlier form with Twist of Fate. It does mean that horses like Vardy showed huge improvement, but quite possible given that they are lightly raced. I agree that this assumption must be tested on future performances of all behind the first two. I will be very tempted to back any of them in a handicap off their official ratings.
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2 months 3 weeks ago #750477 by Frodo
Frodo replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion

PeterD wrote: Hi Ziets
Agree with most of your analysis.
The Derby I would use Helen’s Ideal as the line horse as most of the colts in the first 4 are on the upgrade, so that would add 4 points to your others.

CTS 1600. I would use One World as the line horse as he confirmed earlier form with Twist of Fate. It does mean that horses like Vardy showed huge improvement, but quite possible given that they are lightly raced. I agree that this assumption must be tested on future performances of all behind the first two. I will be very tempted to back any of them in a handicap off their official ratings.


Every one entitled to their opinions - I would be hesitant to automatically credit Vardy with big improvement; I think one has to take into account that horses just beat the competition without necessarily running to their best every time - so for me I think that both One World and Twist of Fate ran far below their best - even maybe below 100 ...

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750479 by Frodo
Frodo replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
And these would be my Met ratings :

Rainbow Bridge - 118 (116 in the QP)
Do It Again - 117 (122 in the QP)
Head Honcho - 117 (same as in the Premiers)
Undercover Agent - 115 ( 114 in the QP)
Legal Eagle - 115 (114 in the QP)
Doublemint - 113 (so yes higher than his official rating of 104)
Oh Susanna - 108 (109 in the Paddock)
Kampala Campari - 112

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2 months 3 weeks ago - 2 months 3 weeks ago #750494 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
R9 SUNMET

119 rainbow bridge 124 ... will become 125 today
125 do it again 123
114 head honcho 122 ....getting 8 points
120 undercover agent 120 LINEHORSE
121 legal eagle 120 confim linehorse
104 doublemint 117 ... ran 13 points better than rated...wont get penalised and snaiths going to wrap him up in cotton for the July.
121 oh susanna 117 (112 if you take sex allowance away)
107 kampala kampari 116 ...ran 13 points above rating and wont get penalised . Wrapped in cotton for july!
111 Eyes wide open 114 ...ran 3 points above rating , his best performance in his life to date.
112 Tap o north 109 Confirm linehorse
108 made to conquer 107 confirm linehorse
109 hat puntana 105

I cant see what richard did wrong . The unluckiest horse was legal eagle , he was baulked for a run and had to switch and change strides twice in last 400m and still fly at them . He is still up with the best.
Last Edit: 2 months 3 weeks ago by Zietsman Oosthuizen.
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2 months 3 weeks ago - 2 months 3 weeks ago #750496 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Race 10
Here you have Strathdon who could be used as linehorse with walter smoothie and pacific chesttnut confirming it BUT it was clear they all 3 didnt run to their true ability.
Thw linehorse should infact be 5th placed Gimme one night!!
96 magnificent seven 99
90 dynasty blossom 98 (actually 93 taking away sex allowance )
102 Strathdon 94
83 cedar man 99(he could have won the derby )
91 gimme one night 91 LINEHORSE
98 walter smoothie 89
85 benjan 87 confirm linehorse
102 let it rain 89
86 ollivander 86 confirm linehorse
109 Elusive silva 87
88 pacific chestnut 82
103 ovidio 79
80 woodland forest 81 confirm linehorse

Strathon should have won hands and heals. Fourie got stuck behind horses at a crucial stage that was not suppose to happen had he moved up earlier and put the race to bed 400m out.
Hope it helps a few guys that find it interesting
Last Edit: 2 months 3 weeks ago by Zietsman Oosthuizen.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750501 by Sylvester
Sylvester replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Atyaab 17 points to 109 the mind boggles

Zietsman Oosthuizen wrote: Will post in following format.
Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

Race 7 Derby 2000
Also a true run race ! Today they never crawld . This race again 4 other horses can confirm the linehorse that should be taken and its basicly straight forward .

92 atyaab 98 ....handicapper will probably give him 7 points
94 charles 97 ...handicapper will give 3 points
86 Herodotus 93 .... handicapper will give 7 points
93 Bunker hunt 93 linehorse
96 Helens ideal 92
103 santa clara 91
89 senatla 89 confirm linehorse
92 hudoo magic 88
84 sailing lizard 86 confirm linehorse ( put small note to follow in blackbook)
93 Ovation award 85
87 belgorion 83
79 line editor 81 confirm linehorse ( include small note in blackbook)
82 Seattle force 79 confirm linehorse .

The field was poor against other years but Eyes wide shut ran only 4 points better last year when he won than Atyaab.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750528 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
The Sun Met

Following careful analysis by Handicappers Lennon Maharaj, Matthew Lips and Vee Moodley, RAINBOW BRIDGE has seen an increase in his merit rating from 119 to 124 following his triumph in the Grade 1 Sun Met at Kenilworth on Saturday 26 January.

It was unanimously agreed amongst the handicapping panel that the correct line horse to use as a means of rating the Sun Met was 4th placed UNDERCOVER AGENT. While he was trying the distance of 2 000m for the first time, it was noted that UNDERCOVER AGENT and 5th placed LEGAL EAGLE finished virtually alongside each other for the third time in succession, having done so too in the Green Point Stakes and later in the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate. This remarkable consistency shown by both horses at the highest level led to the strong conclusion that UNDERCOVER AGENT would not have run below his best in the Sun Met and that he is therefore a logical choice of line horse.

Thus, RAINBOW BRIDGE is now rated 124, while runner-up DO IT AGAIN (who was second last at the 400m mark) remains a 125 despite this defeat, based on his impressive Queen’s Plate win. HEAD HONCHO, who made a brave attempt to win the Met with pillar-to-post tactics, is now rated 122, up from his pre-Met rating of 114. He has clearly more than confirmed the promise he showed when a runaway winner of the Gr 2 Premier Trophy in December. In rating HEAD HONCHO 122, the handicappers took into account that he had over-raced for much of the 2 000m distance and that he had hung out visibly on the bend, so it is believed to have been a run full of merit and worthy of a 122 rating, LEGAL EAGLE’s rating has been dropped from 121 to 120, which is his season’s best mark, achieved when winning the Green Point Stakes. In other changes, TAP O’NOTH’s rating drops from 112 to 110, 2018 Sun Met winner OH SUSANNA’s rating has been trimmed from 121 to 119, and HAT PUNTANO drops to 106 from 109.



Betting World Cape Flying Championship

KASIMIR’s rating was upped from 111 to 117 after he comfortably landed the day’s first Grade 1 event, the Cape Flying Championship over 1000m. Here, 5th placed TRIP TO HEAVEN was used as the line horse. TRIP TO HEAVEN has consistently shown a similar level of form in major sprint races all around South Africa for a number of years, and it is reasonable to believe that he once again ran his usual race here.

KASIMIR has been clearly progressive in Cape Town this season and was able to win despite meeting several horses on less favourable weight terms than in several recent encounters. This was certainly a career-best effort, and a six pound raise in his rating reflects that. Runner-up BOLD RESPECT, who was comfortably beaten by KASIMIR again despite meeting that rival on 6.5 kgs better terms for a 2.75 lengths beating in the Gr 2 Merchants at Kenilworth last November, has been dropped from 118 to 116 to have him rated below KASIMIR.

Third placed SEARCH PARTY goes up from 106 to 112, while 4th finisher PACIFIC TRADER also goes to 112 from a pre-race mark of 110. In other changes, ATTENBOROUGH was dropped from 112 to 110, 2018 Cape Flying Championship winner SERGEANT HARDY drops from 115 to 112 on the back of numerous below-par efforts, DUTCH PHILP was trimmed from 107 to 106, and ROCKY VALLEY goes to 99 from 101.



GBets Cape Derby

ATYAAB saw his rating climb from 92 to 109 after he won the GBets Cape Derby. Here, the Handicappers were of the opinion that 3rd placed HERODOTUS would not have run worse than when he finished 4th in the Gr 2 Concord Cup won by ONE WORLD last November and used that as a key to rate the Derby. In rating the Derby this way, 5th placed HELEN’S IDEAL runs to the same level of 98 that she achieved when she finished 7th in the Cape Fillies Guineas behind FRONT AND CENTRE in December. There is thus a very neat correlation between the form behind top colt ONE WORLD and top filly FRONT AND CENTRE, and ATYAAB is clearly a progressive colt whose rating is befitting of a Grade 1 winner.

Derby runner-up CHARLES was raised from a rating of 94 to 108, while line horse HERODOTUS now has a rating of 105, which is reflective of his ability and is not subject to the Handicapping guidelines which prevented his rating from being increased to what he actually achieved in the Concord Cup. Derby 4th BUNKER HUNT has had his rating upped from 93 to 104. The only horse whose rating dropped as a result of the Derby is PERPETUAL FLAME, who goes from 84 to 80.



Bidvest Majorca Stakes

CLOUDS UNFOLD was raised from a rating of 109 to 115 after she reversed Cape Fillies Guineas form with hitherto unbeaten FRONT AND CENTRE by winning the Bidvest Majorca Stakes. Here, the Handicappers were of the unanimous opinion that 4th placed FRESNAYE should be used as the line horse to assess the race, having also finished 4th in the Grade 1 Paddock Stakes at her previous start three weeks earlier. In that race FRESNAYE was also beaten by LADY IN BLACK, who beat the line horse again in the Majorca Stakes by finishing 2nd. LADY IN BLACK’s rating remains unchanged on 117.

3rd placed FRONT AND CENTRE has had her rating upped from 110 to 112 . In other changes, last year’s Majorca Stakes winner SNOWDANCE was dropped from 114 to 112, and FIORELLA drops from 106 to 104.



CTS 1200 and CTS 1600

In conclusion, it is noted that the Handicappers’ assessment was vindicated in both of the day’s other R5 million races when the top rated horse won each of the CTS sales events, CIRILLO (rated 111) in the 1200m race and ONE WORLD (rated 117) in the 1600m event, where he and runner-up TWIST OF FATE (rated 115) confirmed their ratings perfectly. These horses thus confirmed the form they had shown throughout the Cape summer racing season.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #750533 by Frodo
Frodo replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
Imo all of them too high - especially the Derby - but what do I know ?
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2 months 3 weeks ago #750563 by Muhtiman
Muhtiman replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion
......that Derby field was very poor......now they have gone and hobbled a pretty average horse from getting through its 3 year old career......MDK must be glad he never sent one of his better stars.....:ohmy:

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof
and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone.

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2 months 6 days ago #752058 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen replied the topic: Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion

Zietsman Oosthuizen wrote: Will post in following format.
Current rating , horse , rating achieved today , linehorse

Race 7 Derby 2000
Also a true run race ! Today they never crawld . This race again 4 other horses can confirm the linehorse that should be taken and its basicly straight forward .

92 atyaab 98 ....handicapper will probably give him 7 points
94 charles 97 ...handicapper will give 3 points
86 Herodotus 93 .... handicapper will give 7 points
93 Bunker hunt 93 linehorse
96 Helens ideal 92
103 santa clara 91
89 senatla 89 confirm linehorse
92 hudoo magic 88
84 sailing lizard 86 confirm linehorse ( put small note to follow in blackbook)
93 Ovation award 85
87 belgorion 83
79 line editor 81 confirm linehorse ( include small note in blackbook)
82 Seattle force 79 confirm linehorse .

The field was poor against other years but Eyes wide shut ran only 4 points better last year when he won than Atyaab.


www.sportingpost.co.za/2019/02/cape-derby-mr-appeal/

Still overrated in my opinion...would love to see how they got to that figures first time and 2nd time

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