Why the longshots

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5 days 5 hours ago #761059 by Muhtiman
Muhtiman created the topic: Why the longshots
This is a simple example of what keeps me in the game......when one sees a horse in a field at major long odds.... it is considered by many to be a no-hoper... a dog ....a donkey.....yet some of these long shots I just cannot leave alone..... the reason that for me if a horse has a certain genetic appeal I have to include it in my play.....basically I punt very small and do it not only for a kick....but this is the only way I can keep my mind sharp by combing cards globally to absorb pedigree patterns...or genetic anomalies .....and very often I find horses at big odds resulting in huge place and swinger dividends locally and in other racing jurisdictions.....in the last race in Ascot Ozz look at this perceived no-hoper.....:S

Race 7 Race Closed
NO HORSE WIN PLACE
1 Press The Petal Aus 5.60 2.10
2 Uncle Lino Aus 8.60 2.40
3 Wonorg Aus 17.70 4.60
4 Discoville Aus 3.90 1.70
5 Universal Mae Aus 4.50 1.90
6 Dagorlad Aus 34.40 7.60
7 Kendel's Mee Dad Aus 10.00 2.50
8 Quite Regal Aus 56.00 12.10
9 Our Mate Al Aus 10.60 3.20
10 Patchirac Aus 14.70 4.30
11 Fair Foot Aus 37.20 7.60
12 Shoes Of Ekraar Nz 109.60 23.20

1ST5 Universal Mae Aus
2ND4 Discoville Aus
3RD12 Shoes Of Ekraar Nz
4TH1 Press The Petal Aus
4.50
1.90
1.70
23.20
SW 4-5 3.20
SW 5-12 78.80
SW 4-12 36.00
EX 5-4 18.00
TF 5-4-12 870.60
DB 5x5 16.90
OFFICIAL
SCR: Nil
TF: 4

Wednesday 15 May

Ascot W10:29
Bet: TF Race: 7 Winning Amount: 195.80 Percentage: 0+22% Serial: 91259053191711 Runners: BN,4,5/1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,12
Wednesday 15 May

Ascot L10:29
Bet: TF Race: 7 Cost: 13.20 Percentage: 0+22% Serial: 23688401080317 Runners: BN,1,4/2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12
Wednesday 15 May

Ascot W10:29
Bet: PL Race: 7 Winning Amount: 185.60 Percentage: 8+0% Serial: 58757650547101 Runners: 12
Wednesday 15 May

Ascot W10:27
Bet: SW Race: 7 Winning Amount: 344.40 Percentage: 3+0% Serial: 09943615812913 Runners: 12/1,4,5

.....the horse despite the odds for me stood out to have a no hurt tiny tickle.... as Ekraar standing in NZ is not very fashionable ....:oops: but was a decent track horse winning 8 of his 25 starts in Europe and UK graded race winner won and placed in Hong Kong and Dubai... has a cracking ped....and was always in my play when he raced back in the day.....;)

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof
and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone.
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5 days 5 hours ago #761060 by biscuit
biscuit replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
Brilliant, please give me a pointer what to look for pedigree wise.
I like your bet structure, will use it its very cost effective.

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5 days 4 hours ago #761061 by Muhtiman
Muhtiman replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
......thanx Biscuit for noticing the rather economical bet structure as this can easily be deciphered .....:oops: ... however explaining my take on pedigree and genetics could take a good few years to document.....and is a mish mash of information absorbed through various well known published breeding theories through the many years of online research and then committing to a practiced mental calculation and checking and peeling peds on a daily basis.....:whistle:

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof
and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone.

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5 days 4 hours ago #761062 by biscuit
biscuit replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
I just picked lagacio in the first using your logic needless to say I made a few bucks

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5 days 4 hours ago #761063 by Muhtiman
Muhtiman replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
......but doubt that it was my logic.....as if one insisted that you had to leave only one horse out of your play.....your selection would have been the one.....not my type of poison.....but the tail line (female family)....is a strong one and has had some very good specimens bred from that line.....;)

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof
and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone.

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5 days 3 hours ago #761066 by naresh
naresh replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
Special Blend on Sunday was a longshot :cheer:

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5 days 2 hours ago #761073 by Tigershark
Tigershark replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
Should never have been that price, out of Mabola Plum and related to some nice performers, considering that Duncan's horses generally improve by 5 lengths or more from their first start....

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5 days 1 hour ago #761085 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
I used to follow soft ground sires in the UK

But only when unexpected rain fell, very successfully I may add

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5 days 1 hour ago #761090 by Muhtiman
Muhtiman replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
....and it works here too.....

Wednesday 15 May'
Scottsville W15:55
Bet: PL Race: 7 Winning Amount: 101.00 Percentage: 10+0% Serial: 98642077857713 Runners: 1,3,11
Wednesday 15 May

Scottsville W15:55
Bet: WN Race: 7 Winning Amount: 325.00 Percentage: 10+0% Serial: 18218304976439 Runners: 11
Wednesday 15 May


Scottsville W15:52
Bet: SW Race: 7 Winning Amount: 342.00 Percentage: 4+0% Serial: 37323379257500 Runners: BX,1,3,6,7,11

....only backed winner for wins...... as from my swinger selections was only one I did not have in my JP...:(

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof
and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone.

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5 days 56 minutes ago #761094 by Muhtiman
Muhtiman replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
.....always have had a soft spot for Mogok's especially when mated across Mr P lines/ mares....a classic Scott bros ped a cross that has produced some rewarding sorts.....this was one of my sales picks from way back but thought it went for a tad to much....owners are certainly having a bit of fun....;)

....just a pity I left it out of the JP...:oops:

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof
and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone.

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5 days ago #761097 by naresh
naresh replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots

Muhtiman wrote: .....always have had a soft spot for Mogok's especially when mated across Mr P lines/ mares....a classic Scott bros ped a cross that has produced some rewarding sorts.....this was one of my sales picks from way back but thought it went for a tad to much....owners are certainly having a bit of fun....;)

....just a pity I left it out of the JP...:oops:


How does a horse out of an Oaks winner Cyber Cento keeps winning at any price. Cyber Cento beat Cover Look who won the Fillies Classic. Cover Look's dam was the brilliant Argentinean mare Fanciful.
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4 days 23 hours ago #761102 by Muhtiman
Muhtiman replied the topic: Re:Why the longshots
....yes Naresh that's why I started this thread.....its about horse power and not jock on top and whose yard its in.....had Connect Me in my play but nothing else I fancied on ped could run into the places....:( most okes follow jocks/ trainer and those stats...now 4 wins from 15 runs from a R110K buy out of that mare is a steal....but nothing wrong with a guy like Gary Rich....he knows how to put a saddle on a horse.....:dry:

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof
and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone.

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4 days 22 hours ago #761104 by ballie
ballie replied the topic: Why the longshots
sshhhhh we do not complain

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