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1 week 6 days ago #762952 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan created the topic: Daily News 2000 - NHA Blog
Handicapping Ratings Update - Greyville 1 June
#Handicapping #MeritRating #DailyNews2000 #Woolavington2000
Daily News 2000 (Grade 1)
HAWWAAM’s rating remains unchanged on 121 after his fluent win in the Daily News 2000 (Grade 1) at Greyville on Saturday, 1 June. The Handicappers agreed that the appropriate line horse to use in rating the race was the ultra-consistent runner-up TWIST OF FATE, who once again appeared to run his race and therefore his rating also remains unaltered on 117.
Third placed CAPOEIRA showed big improvement and as such his rating has shot up from 81 to 105. It must be borne in mind that he came into the Daily News rated 23 pounds inferior to the next lowest rate horse (jointly ATYAAB and CHARLES) and it is also interesting to note that every other runner in the race finished exactly in rating order. As such, it was clear to the Handicappers that CAPOEIRA was the “odd man out” in this scenario and it is believed that he is a progressive three-year-old who deserves his new, higher rating. The Handicappers deemed that CAPOEIRA has not yet established a profile and is a lightly raced, improving type who was trying a different distance, having not raced beyond 1750m previously.
Fourth placed ZILLZAAL was dropped from 105 to 104, while THANKSGIVING was dropped from 106 to 104. The remaining duo of CHARLES and ATYAAB (who suffered a nosebleed during the race) remain on 104, so all of those who finished behind CAPOEIRA are now rated one pound inferior to him.
Woolavington 2000 (Grade 1)
SILVANO’S PRIDE’s rating was upped from 106 to 109 after she clearly benefitted from a step up in distance and won the Woolavington 2000 (Grade 1) at Greyville on Saturday. In assessing this three-year-old fillies’ event, the Handicappers felt that fourth placed SEVILLE ORANGE was unlikely to have run worse here than when she ran to a 102 in finishing third in the Grade 2 SA Oaks at Turffontein on 30 March and used that performance as the yardstick to rate the Woolavington.
Accordingly, SEVILLE ORANGE’s rating was raised from 99 to 102, one pound below third placed BLOSSOM, who basically confirmed Oaks form with SEVILLE ORANGE and whose rating was upped from 103 to 104. Runner-up FRONT AND CENTRE was left unchanged on 112 after she hung right across from the outside to the inside of the course in the straight, causing interference to several rivals in the process.
In the only other changes, SNAPSCAN and MADONNA were both raised to 89 from 81 and 82 respectively. This pair had dominated the finish to the Listed East Cape Oaks at Fairview on 19 April, with MADONNA beating SNAPSCAN by a diminishing head. The Handicappers feel that on overall form there is virtually nothing to choose between them and thus opted to rate them as equals for the time being.
Lonsdale Stirrup Cup Handicap (Grade 3)
LIEGE has had his rating increased from 95 to 100 after his comfortable win in the Lonsdale Stirrup Cup over 2400m at Greyville on Saturday. LIEGE seemed to lose his way after winning the 2017 Grade 1 Summer Cup, but the Lonsdale distance of 2400m brought him back to prominence even if his new rating is still well shy of his career high 110.
The Handicappers agreed that third placed SILVER ROSE was the correct line horse. As such, his rating remains unchanged, while runner-up GIMME ONE NIGHT was raised from 91 to 92. Fourth placed DYNASTY’S BLOSSOM, fifth finisher ROY’S RIVIERA and sixth placed SILVA’S BULLET all ran to their marks as well, and so all three remain unaltered.
The other changes were to STRATHDON, who drops from 102 to 101, FLICHITY BY FARR goes from 94 to 93, and NOBLE SECRET drops from 105 to 104.

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