Handicap rating update - NHA Blog

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2 months 1 week ago #763671 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan created the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog
Handicapping Ratings Update -
#Handicapping #MeritRatings
Rising Sun Gold Challenge (Grade 1)
DO IT AGAIN’s merit rating remains unchanged on 125 after he ran down CIRILLO in the closing stages of the Grade 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge (WFA) over 1600m at Greyville on Saturday, 8 June. In fact, DO IT AGAIN, 4th placed SOQRAT and 5th placed UNDERCOVER AGENT all ran to their rating and all three can effectively be seen as being line horses. As such, no changes were made to the rating of any of the three.
Runner-up CIRILLO actually runs to 124 when rating the race this way, but the Handicappers are cognisant of the fact that he was given a very enterprising ride from the front on a day when a strong tailwind was blowing down the straight and it is our view that CIRILLO may have been a little flattered by the bare numbers. As such, he was given a rating of 121 to make him the equal for now of his fellow three-year-old SOQRAT, who has beaten CIRILLO on these same weight terms three times in the past.
Third placed RAINBOW BRIDGE did not enjoy the greatest of luck in running here and also remains unaltered on 124. In fact, aside from CIRILLO, no changes were made to the ratings of any of the eight runners in the Gold Challenge line-up.
Tibouchina Stakes (Grade 2)
OH SUSANNA has seen her rating trimmed from 118 to 116 after she made virtually all the running to narrowly win the Grade 2 Tibouchina Stakes for fillies and mares over 1400m at Greyville on Saturday. This drop in the four-year-old’s rating is more in the nature of an overall re-assessment of her form this season, where she has never equalled the rating of 118 off which she raced here.
In assessing the race, the Handicappers felt that TWICE AS SMART had not run worse in a race of this calibre than the 94 she achieved when beaten 0.80 lengths by CAMPHORATUS at level weights in the Grade 3 Flamboyant Stakes at Greyville in December 2018. In the Tibouchina, TWICE AS SMART carried six pounds less than CAMPHORATUS and beat her by 2.60 lengths, or five pounds, so the performance is very similar to that of TWICE AS SMART in the Flamboyant Stakes vis-à-vis CAMPHORATUS. However, no change was made to the rating of either of these two in the wake of the Tibouchina Stakes.
Runner-up IN THE DANCE was raised from 92 to 101, third placed SILENT CRUSADE went up from 91 to 98, and fourth placed DESERT RHYTHM was given a smaller raise and goes from 92 to 94. In other changes, ELUSIVE HEART drops from 100 to 98, ROSE IN BLOOM has been cut from 105 to 102, ANIME drops to 93 from 96, and AL DANZA comes down from 102 to 99.
Cup Trial (Handicap) (Grade 3)
KAMPALA CAMPARI’s rating was raised from 107 to 109 after his narrow win in the Cup Trial (handicap) over 1800m at Greyville on Saturday. The Handicappers opted for the conservative route when assessing this race and decided to use runner-up EYES WIDE OPEN as the line horse. The Handicappers took the view that the Cup Trial was something of a false-run race, with the first two finishers occupying the first two places for virtually the entire race and also benefitting from a strong tailwind in the straight, so it was decided to adopt the lowest possible way of rating the race.
Third placed DOUBLEMINT (who was almost certainly not suited to the way the race was run) and fourth placed MADE TO CONQUER were left unchanged on 104 and 108, respectively. There were drops, however, for ROY HAD ENOUGH (109 to 108), DARK MOON RISING (who reverts from 106 to the 105 he was before being raised one pound for finishing fifth in the Premier’s Champion Challenge at Turffontein in May) and SOCIAL ORDER (101 to 99.)
Jubilee Handicap (Grade 3)
BARAHIN has had his rating increased from 108 to 112 after he came from well-off the pace to win the Grade 3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m at Turffontein (standside) on Sunday, 9 June. In the process, he again underlined the strength of the current three-year-old crop by beating some useful older rivals in a quite comprehensive manner.
Here, third placed CAPTAIN AND MASTER and fourth placed THE DAZZLER (who is as consistent a guide as one could ask for) were used as the line horses and accordingly they both remain unchanged on 99.
Runner-up SHENANIGANS was four pounds under sufferance in the race and accordingly goes up from 89 to 94. Four of the five pounds by which his rating has gone up is because of the sufferance, and on top of that he earned one pound for beating the line horses by around half-a-length.
In the only other changes, HERO’S HONOUR drops from 106 to 105, ARCTICA was trimmed from 100 to 98, and BANNER HILL was dropped from 96 to 93.
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2 months 1 week ago #763679 by PeterD
PeterD replied the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog
Oh Susanna has run her best races over 1800m and further- it makes no sense to adjust her rating for a 1400m race where no-one expected her to run up to the rating earned over her proper trip. She was able to win this because of the huge gap in ability between her and the next best rated filly. Similarly her race in Jhb where she traveled, had not acclimatised, and was probably in need of the run also does not reflect her true ability.
It is all academic as she is reportedly going to stud this season with only the possibility of running in the WFA Garden Province, but it demonstrates the muddled thinking that we have to contend with.
The handicappers should indeed opine on the ratings achieved in each race in order to ensure consistency, but the official rating of a horse which inevitably is earned when running over its optimum trip does not need to be adjusted when a horse runs in races over a sub-optimal trip.
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2 months 1 week ago #763752 by TNaicker
TNaicker replied the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog
Previously, attorneys were often the butt of jokes...now it's "accountants" (bookies and handicappers) and auditors (Steinhoff and Tongaat) that are on the receiving end of much stick !! And not blameless...

Life's too short to have a long face...so, cherish the good, learn from the bad and forget the rest...

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2 months 1 week ago #763762 by Dave Scott
Dave Scott replied the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog
The National Horseracing Authority Roadshow - Highveld Trainers


Please note that the NHA will hold the Highveld Leg of the Handicapping Roadshow at The NHA Offices, Turffontein Racecourse on Wednesday 12th June 2019 from 12h00 till 14h00.



Agenda:



Handicapping Methodology – in Brief
Handicappers to rate races in view of attendees
Discuss the proposed adjustment of the national horse population
Questions and Answers


Venue : National Horseracing Authority Offices (Turffontein Racecourse)

Start : 12h00

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2 months 1 week ago #763775 by Frodo
Frodo replied the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog

PeterD wrote: Oh Susanna has run her best races over 1800m and further- it makes no sense to adjust her rating for a 1400m race where no-one expected her to run up to the rating earned over her proper trip. She was able to win this because of the huge gap in ability between her and the next best rated filly. Similarly her race in Jhb where she traveled, had not acclimatised, and was probably in need of the run also does not reflect her true ability.
It is all academic as she is reportedly going to stud this season with only the possibility of running in the WFA Garden Province, but it demonstrates the muddled thinking that we have to contend with.
The handicappers should indeed opine on the ratings achieved in each race in order to ensure consistency, but the official rating of a horse which inevitably is earned when running over its optimum trip does not need to be adjusted when a horse runs in races over a sub-optimal trip.


Yes this is academic, but I have always maintained that that Met run was rated incorrectly - and subsequently on my rating she has been running consistently to 110-112

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2 months 1 week ago - 2 months 1 week ago #763793 by Dave Scott
Dave Scott replied the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog
Just a bit quick feedback as i am sure official feedback and minutues to follow.
Firstly the drive to and back from Pretoria to Turf has never been easy but with close and rework on M1 made it a nighmare!!

However this for me was very educational and impressed by the presentation and numerous banter /exchanges between Vee and Lennon and the trainers.
One thing for sure its not an exact science.
The line horse and the thought process with the increase and decrease of ratings using various examples was interesting to me and Tarry and Binda etc certainly know their stuff.
We discussed the top horse where an international committee discuss the ratings off our top horses but the problem is with our 75% lower quality of horses.
Not only is this the problem area where ratings need to be initially raised but closely monitored in conjunction with the programming lads ( Patrick Davis and Gaby Soma also on the ball and had all facts and figures) to ensure they meet the challenge.
The merit system for the majority of our horses is only local and has no interference from external influence and the challenge is for Vee and Lennon to make it happen.

As i said for me it was just an education into the various link between NHRA and how the merit system works .

It would be nice to share this presentation with more racing people and i was surprised that only 14 people attended and only 7 trainers .

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Last Edit: 2 months 1 week ago by Dave Scott.

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1 month 3 weeks ago - 1 month 3 weeks ago #765337 by Dave Scott
Dave Scott replied the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog
Last Edit: 1 month 3 weeks ago by Bob Brogan.

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1 month 3 weeks ago - 1 month 3 weeks ago #765356 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan replied the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog
Who’s that handsome chap at the 9 minute mark

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Last Edit: 1 month 3 weeks ago by Bob Brogan.

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1 month 3 weeks ago #765358 by Frodo
Frodo replied the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog
Interesting discussion and a pity that more trainers did not attend; imo the solution to raise every horse by 10 points is not correct; more care has to be taken when handicapping races after the fact in order to try and minimize slippage - yes I agree slippage will always be a factor, but I'd rather have kept the top horses at the same ratings and introduce lower level handicaps (what's wrong with having a MR 40 handicap ?) to cater for all those low rated horses - the alternative would be to tell everyone that once your horse slips below a certain mark (55 ?) the program is not able to cater for it to run off its 'correct' weight - so you either accept that fact or get rid of it - which raises another debate altogether .....

So yes, slippage is probably the main contributor to having many horses with low ratings - but how should this be addressed; I don't believe that raising ratings by arbitrary numbers each year or each 5 years is the correct solution, so we need to find another solution - and imo the 'limits' introduced makes a mockery of MR handicapping - the handicappers should try to rate horses as accurately as possible in real terms, which would imo reduce slippage - and then one needs to either cater for those low rated horses in low rated handicaps (which should mean that a consistent number of horses stay in training) or keep the low rated handicaps as in the current scenario (which should result in fewer horses being around - and ultimately fewer horses being bred and sold - as many of them would be racing 'out at the weights')
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1 month 2 weeks ago #765450 by Dave Scott
Dave Scott replied the topic: Handicap rating update - NHA Blog

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