Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth

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1 week 3 days ago #768233 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan created the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
NB: Durbanville race meeting 10 Aug 2019 has been moved to Kenilworth.

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1 week 3 days ago #768243 by elmer
elmer replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
I understand that when the reconstruction of the track was done
NO DRAINAGE WAS INSTALLED
This despite the input given by an expert
So whats new in racing !!!!

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1 week 2 days ago - 1 week 1 day ago #768331 by bayern
bayern replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Think the change to Kenilworth could benefit some of my selections as oppose to going round the Durbanville bend. Fancy the treble :-

R2) Lilac Sensation X (R3) Duchess Of State X (R7) Pretty Young Thing

Going through the card :-

R1) Winter Oasis is the marginal choice because of the racing experience, which is not flash. If there is any money for the first timers, Al Bragga (owned by Clan member Neigh) or Captain Turk, put them into your play because neither would have to be too smart to win here. Winter Oasis did compete in open company last time out and in the heavy going, that could stand him in good stead here, but by no means a good thing. Watch the market come race time.

R2) Lilac Sensation, the runner-up in that debut race, Sailing Ship, came out and won by 4.0 lengths in her next start, so I'm hoping Lilac Sensation can show the same natural improvement, considering these two were comfortably clear of the fourth placed finisher (4.50L), who came out and ran second in her next outing.

R3) Duchess Of State, the collateral form behind her debut run is fairly solid. There has been 4 runners since, with a 1st, two seconds and a third place finishers. The immediate market rival, Linda Loves Lace, has let the side down too often, so I'll brass her and stick with what looks to be the one with the most scope for improvement.

R4) Does appear to be a two horse race, and I'm leaning towards Cane Lime 'N Soda. Both starts as a juvenile were in open company, and he made improvement from first to second runs. Ran on over 7 furlongs last time out, with draw 1 (on Saturday), and if getting away on terms, should appreciate the extra furlong - must be the one they all have to beat competing against his own age group.

R5) Again looks like a two horse race, but does have upset potential. I make it a race in two between Crimea and Duntoche, marginally leaning towards the latter, only because of consistency. Go as wide as possible in your P6 and JP.

R6) Another race where a case can be made for the entire field. Having said that, for me, the value lies with Magic Mary, purely on the weights. She should have the beating of Dancing Sally. The favourite, Secret Depths, is a one time winner and too high in the rating (for me anyway), even with the apprentice allowance. The same can be said for Principessa. Whilst Magic Mary has had 18 runs for two wins, she should be competitive in this line-up (or so I'm hoping).

R7) Pretty Young Thing, whilst her rating was achieved over further, she simply hacked in that day. The collateral form is solid, albeit over 1400 and 1600m. The spook could be Casino Queen in receipt of 5.0kgs, but I'll take my chances.

R8) A very open race, rowing in with Ground Control on a good second to Armando off level weights. The worry is the draw and the return from a 97 day rest. For P6 purposes, go as wide as possible.

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Last Edit: 1 week 1 day ago by bayern. Reason: Not a 165 day rest as previously stated, apologies.
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1 week 1 day ago #768345 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Opening Lilac Sensation 2/1 was crazy

Will win 5L

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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #768353 by ruffian
ruffian replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Secret Depths was a highway clear of the third horse last time. How did she not pick up a penalty? I think she will be very tough to beat. Best of luck to Peter.
Last Edit: 1 week 1 day ago by ruffian.

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1 week 1 day ago #768356 by Jackson
Jackson replied the topic: Re:Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
All the best with yr runner Neigh.
Hope she comes home lonely.

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1 week 1 day ago #768362 by PeterD
PeterD replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth

ruffian wrote: Secret Depths was a highway clear of the third horse last time. How did she not pick up a penalty? I think she will be very tough to beat. Best of luck to Peter.


That race was very difficult to assess as it had looked a closely handicapped race but the first 2 went 9 lengths clear of the rest. It’s hard to imagine that both the first two ran 20lb above their ratings, although the winner had been rather leniently treated coming into the race on a hatrick, and Secret Depths had run two fair races in feature company. It seems that the handicapper decided to use SD as the line horse. However the winner went up 6 points, and with a length separating them, we would not have been able to complain if we had gone up 3 or 4. I think that the handicapper took into account that the winner won comfortably hands and heels, whereas we were flat to the boards. After 12 very consistent runs SD is well exposed, and the winner is lightly raced and more progressive. In the very heavy going, one has to be cautious about winning margins and quite a few may not have acted in the going. Most of the rest were dropped a point or two. I think it shows that the handicapper applied his mind, looked carefully at the race, the conditions and the way it was run, and did not just blindly do the arithmetic.

In any event, the weights for this race were already framed so we would have run here off our old rating even if we had picked up a penalty for our run last week.
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1 week 1 day ago #768368 by neigh
neigh replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Hi Clanners I have Al Bragga in the 1st. He is a very nice sort and should do well.
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1 week 1 day ago #768374 by Karma
Karma replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
All the best Neigh and enjoy the winners enclosure :)

Are you living your life or waiting to die?

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1 week 1 day ago #768378 by zain
zain replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Just one for me today in the fifth race in that of the Devin Ashby mount "SPENDING MY TIME". All the best and break a leg.

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1 week 1 day ago #768381 by bayern
bayern replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Even if you don't fancy Ground Control, stick it in a multiple or have an on the head punt with Hollywood, who still have it trading at 22/10, when the other bookies have it trading at 16/10, and not because of the scratchings and subsequent adjustments - be quick before the penny drops back at the ranch.

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1 week 1 day ago #768382 by zain
zain replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Quiet forgot about "HERCULES GIRL" :side:

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1 week 1 day ago #768383 by zain
zain replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Th horse 'GREY FERRARI' reminds me of Montgomery.

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1 week 1 day ago #768385 by bayern
bayern replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth

zain wrote: Th horse 'GREY FERRARI' reminds me of Montgomery.


... which one, Field Marshal or Percy?

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1 week 1 day ago #768386 by zain
zain replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth

bayern wrote:

zain wrote: Th horse 'GREY FERRARI' reminds me of Montgomery.


... which one, Field Marshal or Percy?


Alabama, North America.

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1 week 1 day ago #768387 by PeterD
PeterD replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Nice sunny day, not much wind, might be a bit of a tailwind later, going still heavy.
Race 1: If Al Bragga is as good as his siblings and ready for this then he could do it. A couple of other first timers to be considered. Not much between 1,2,4,8 which have run, so a tricky start to the bipot.
Race 2: Snaith has a very strong hand with Lilac Sensation and Queensbarns and should run 1-2. Noble Rhythym and Ryanair good debuts and should earn. We have Blue Gangsta running- needed first run and that was too short. Expect improvement but not too hopeful here.
Race 3: Fynbos had not done too much before her debut, and ran on strongly over a trip too short. Expect a much improved run and although Duchess of State looks a smart sort I’m hoping that we can give her a go and be in the first two. Linda Loves Lace and Orferd’s Flash have fair form but the other two look to have more scope for improvement.
Race 4: Cane Lime N Soda and Over the Odds should fight this out.
Race 5: Weak maiden and upset possible. Danger Zone comes off a long break, and again badly drawn, but her run behind Principessa is the best form in the race. Could be a threat but likely to need the run.
Crimea and Duntoche look the two to fight it out.
Race 6: Secret Depths ran a cracker last week, and we left her in here as she came through that race well. Carries a big weight but gets 1.5kg claim and she is overdue a win.
Race 7: Tricky handicap. Casino Queen won on debut and I think that she can win again. Pretty Young Thing won well last time but a big weight and looks to need further. Captains Darling must be respected.
Race 8: Forty Days won a tight race last time and the switch to Kenilworth is in his favour given the draw. Should again run a decent race, but a very competitive race. Ground Control is a smart sort and is the one to beat. Marco Polo also a decent 3yo and must be respected. Mister Vargus is weighted to finish in front of us this time.
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1 week 1 day ago #768401 by DOCTOR R
DOCTOR R replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Race 2 ....5 and race 4..…5

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1 week 1 day ago #768406 by MasterOfMyFate
MasterOfMyFate replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Queensbarns wow what a performance. Looks very similar to Gabor as well.

Absolutely love the Kingsbarns horses:cheer: too bad he had to go so soon

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1 week 1 day ago #768408 by durbs
durbs replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth

Bob Brogan wrote: Opening Lilac Sensation 2/1 was crazy

Will win 5L


Only to be beaten by it's stable companion.
Like I've said many times before,the Cape trainers are poor judges of youngsters.
They just haven't a clue which one is better than the other even though they train them everyday.

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1 week 1 day ago #768409 by durbs
durbs replied the topic: Durbanville 10th - Now Kenilworth
Well someone knew which was better.
All the money for Lilac Sensation from 2-1 into 6-10 at one stage then this happens to it's stable companion.....
9 Queensbarns 3.30 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.50 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.00 4.85 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.30
Dodgy to say the least.

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