Race 1  1310 MP  1600m  12 runners
# RUNNER		CALC/O	ACT/O	INV/O +/-	HORSE ANALYSIS
PRINCIPAL
5		3-1	15-10	-ve	31 days. Ex-KEN. Last two moderate 1800-2000m no extra but prior 1.70-4.80LBW. Some kind of chance here.
1 		4-1	7-1	3pts	32 days. Last after 5 months rest, 4th 2.75LBW. Prior 4.25-6.75LBWs 1600-1900m. 2SAL. MAR18 2000m early toe, leading with 400m to go.
					CD 1-0100. Some kind of chance. 2SAL AV.
6		4-1	6-1	2pts	46 days. Last two over 1200m-1300m thereabouts 3.80LBWs but prior three races 4ths 0.80-3.55LBWs. If handles distance big runner. 							Smith/Yeni combo. Change of trainer.
SECONDARY
7		6-1	8-1	2pts	27 days. Moderate ex-KEN best a 6th 4.75LBW 1400m. That translates into many lengths at weaker centre. 
12		8-1	18-1	10pts	65 days. Ex-GRY. Penultimate promising 3rd 3.50LBW 2000m staying on but after 60 day rest FRV debut, 1200m 10LBW sharpener.
2		8-1	10-1	2pts	25 days. 6yo 44-0749. Last late progress 4th 5.70 track, trip. And of last six 1.80-4.60 1000-1300m. 
3		8-1	7/1	0	25 days. Very poor ex KEN/TFI last best 3rd 5.60LBW 1600m stubborn no extra. CD 1-0010. Might be worth 8-1

SHOCK
8		15-1	15-1	0	25 days. Lightly-raced, debut promising 5th 1.10LBW 1200m but next two nowhere, 1200,1600m. Last a 1600m 8.75LBW lacking finish.

COMMENTS
None of these inspire confidence as world-beaters. #5 is probably a deserved favorite as an ex-KEN with form. Rest period is about right, ex-Snaith, higher center, has placed
over the distance. If this one does not win then one of several have a chance. The #12 offers the best invesrment opportunity potential as an ex-GRY who run unplaced over
a sprint distace but did run 3rd over 2000m running 2.8LB with 400m to go. So I wouldn't say the favorite #5 is vulnerable and should win but the #12 is my EW bet, with swingers, exacta
with the favorite #5.

CALC/O = calculated odds
ACT/O = actual odds
INV/O = investment opportunity