Tim Carroll’s selections - He knows his stuff.
WEDNESDAY'S SELECTIONS
Race 1: Class 5 Bedford Handicap (1040am) (5 furlongs)
3 THE GOOD DEAL has been unplaced both starts of the current campaign but he takes a drop in grade, to a level he should be able to compete at. The selections last five starts in Class 5 company have yielded two wins and three placed efforts, and although those two wins were over six-furlongs, he’s not devoid of speed, and the low draw helps.
Dangers:
8 Valhalla has been unplaced his last two, but he met with support when winning over six-furlongs here last month, and although he drops back to five-furlongs, he did place over course & trip from an 18lb higher mark last season.
2 Multimore has run well enough in defeat in all three starts this campaign, and he did win at a level above this earlier last year, but he will have to overcome the outside draw.
4 Fingers Crossed has been disappointing since winning at Sha Tin in July, but this is a moderate affair and a drop of 2lb in the handicap sees him only 2lb above his winning mark.
Race 2: Class 5 Cheung Handicap (1110am) (9 furlongs)
11 MIGHTY STAR is a long standing maiden but he ran a career best last time when runner-up over the mile when he had a few of these in behind. He was ridden by a 2lb local allowance claiming rider that night, but with connections booking a 7lb claimer this time around, he’s now 4lb better off despite a 1lb lift from the handicapper, and he goes from the very foot of the handicap from the inside draw.
Dangers:
6 Happy Hero broke his duck over the mile on his seasonal return last month, and although he goes up 7lbs, he ran through the line strongly that night and should appreciate stepping up in trip
1 Sunny Baby has run well enough in defeat both starts of the current campaign, and he now steps up to a trip he won over last season from just a 2lb lower mark.
9 Joyful Champion is a maiden who has shown some improvement recently with two placed efforts at Sha Tin, which has coincided with a step up in trip, and the tighter layout of the city track looks a good fit.
Race 3: Class 3 Cheong Wan Handicap (1140am) (5 furlongs)
3 MAJESTIC KNIGHT was runner-up to Heroic Master over course & trip last time and the winner did run over the top of him. However, the selection jumped from the outside stall that night and had to work to sit up outside the pace, which blunted his finish. With a 7lb claimer now booked, he effectively meets the winner on 12lb better terms, and from stall 4, he should have soft run on the back of the leader (Super Axiom)
Dangers:
4 Heroic Master won over course & trip last time with four of these in behind, needless to say he goes onto the short list despite a 5lb penalty for a three-quarter of a length success.
5 Humble Master picked up the bronze behind Heroic Master last time when doing his best work late, and will have last shot at them again
2 Explosive Witness hasn’t won for a long time, but he continues to descend the handicap, and he wasn’t far behind the top three mentioned when last seen here at Happy Valley.
Race 4: Class 4 Chinese General Chamber of Commerce Cup (Handicap) (1210pm) (6 furlongs)
10 WIND SPEEDER will be a bit of a swing giving he hasn’t won for a while, and stall 1 could go either way as he’ll probably park up around mid division, but if he gets the breaks when needed, he could surprise. The selection ran better than the bare result from a wide draw last time, and he did win over course & trip last year from an 8lb higher mark, so we know this is within his scope, and he lands in what is a moderate Class 4.
Dangers:
1 Act Of Faith goes from the top of the handicap having gone up 2lb for running second over course & trip last time, but he should have the drop on the leaders from the low draw.
8 Harmony N Home was unplaced on his return last month, but he continues to slide down the handicap and would have finished closer last time if for not having to be steadied mid race.
9 Super Eagle bombed last time with no apparent excuses, but he had been placed his last three over course & trip, and would be right in the mix if bouncing back.
Race 5: Class 4 Fat Tseung Handicap 1240pm (1 mile)
8 TURIN WARRIOR is yet to break through in twenty-two local starts, but he met with good support on his seasonal return when runner-up over course & trip. He was a tad unlucky not to win that night, having been snagged back to near last from a high draw before coming widest of all around the turn, beaten half a length by a rival who had all the favours up the inside. The winner of that race has since been placed at a level above this, which gives the form some shape, and from the low draw, he should be able to park up closer to the pace.
Dangers;
6 Fearless Fire is hard to catch, but he was runner-up over course & trip last time, he won from a higher mark last season, and he’ll look to go forward in a race offering no more than an honest gallop.
4 Legion Of Merit, who was a twice course & trip winner last season, ran better than the bare result from a high draw on his seasonal return when the rider was forced to make an early move after being planted wide, and from the low draw here, he should have all the favours.
1 Joyful Friendship has been unplaced all four local starts, but he was a twice winner from just three goes in Australia, and he is worth considering for any exotics now that he takes a drop in grade.
Race 6: Class 4 Hing Wah Handicap (110pm) (6 furlongs)
3 RIGHTEOUS ARION was a beaten favourite last time when in behind Tattenham, but he had a awful trip that night, planted wide, snagged back, before running on to heels at the 800m mark, but still closed out the race without threatening. The selection has been costly to follow recently, but he’s due some luck, and with connections electing to go with a 7lb claimer, he is now 13lb better off with Tattenham, and effectively runs off a slightly lower mark than when winning over course & trip last season.
Dangers:
1 Kokushi Musou runs from the top of the handicap, but he’s goes from stall 1 and his record from twenty-five starts when drawn stall 1 reads 1-2-1, all over course & trip, and he’s now only 1lb above his last winning mark.
5 High Percentage is a five-start maiden who has been placed a couple of times and does look a winner in waiting, but he will have to overcome the outside draw.
8 Tattenham defied market expectations ($74.00) when breaking his local duck over course & trip last time when given a more aggressive ride than we’d seen in the past, and he only goes up 5lb in the handicap.
Race 7: Class 4 Hing Wah Handicap (140pm) (6 furlongs)
3 WOOD ON FIRE doesn’t win out of turn but he continues to run to a decent level and has been placed his last two over course & trip, the most recent when only beaten a lip with the first two clear of the others. The connections looked at the patrol footage that night, with a view to lodging an objection against the winner, but decided not to. He’s a very straightforward sort in that he’ll look to be on the front, and with a few market principles drawn high, he may get all the favours.
Dangers:
1 Solid Shalaa, a thrice winner in Australia, didn’t have a lot of luck last time when posted wide when just missing the frame, which was his first spin at this level, and he should be in the mix with a bit more luck in running.
2 Joy Coming went back-to-back over course & trip before a decent effort in fourth last time when planted wide from a high stall, but he once again draws toward the outside and may need some luck.
8 Super Elite showed nothing in three starts last season, but ran a much better race on his return when fourth, two spots behind the selection, and given he’s open to further improvement, and draws in 1 again, he should be considered for any exotics.
Race 8: Class 3 Fife Handicap (215pm) (1 mile)
11 CHILL CHIBI has been off since February with a right hind leg issue, & moves up in grade under an 8lb penalty having won over course & trip at just his second start when last seen. Although he dives into deeper waters, he won easily last time in a race that has produced six subsequent winners. He’s had a couple of six furlongs trials without showing up, but you’d expect that, and given he goes first-up over what looks his trip, I suspect he’ll be ready for a tilt on his return.
Dangers:
2 Outgate, who was a four-time winner for Dean and Claire Kubler, recorded his first local success when making all over course & trip last time with a few of these well beaten in behind, and he’s likely to make a bold bid from the front again under a 6lb penalty.
4 Ivy League, who was Group 2 placed last year in Ireland for Aiden O’Brien, goes up 5lb having broken his local duck over course & trip last time, and the son of Galileo, who draws down in stall 1 should get a solid gallop to aim at.
6 All Beauty will strip fitter having picked up the bronze over course & trip on his return, and a 1lb increase from the handicapper sees him on the same mark as when he won here in January.
Race 9: Class 3 Hing Yip Handicap (250pm) (6 furlongs)
3 SUGAR SUGAR is a thrice course & trip winner who has been runner-up at both starts this season, but he had no luck last time, planted wide on the speed with no cover, to only be beaten a lip, with the first two well clear of the others. The selection draws the middle this time, but he’s had high draws his last two, thus hopefully he’ll have a bit more luck this time around, and connections have booked a valuable 5lb claimer, which more than offsets the 2lbs he’s been handed for his last run.
Dangers:
6 Lucky Archangel goes up 5lbs having recorded back-to-back wins and should have the run of the race tracking the speed form the low draw, but a 5lb penalty and change of rider means he is effectively now 10lb higher in the handicap.
1 Gallant Waking was doing his best work late when placed one spot in behind the selection last time when running on, but he was over two-length in arrears, and he’s now 3lb worse off at the weights.
10 Denfield moves up in grade under a 5lb penalty having won over course & trip last time, but he does carry 11lb less at this level, however, Purton abandons ship to ride the top-weight.
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