RWC : Now It Gets Ugly

With the pool phase now behind us the RWC really hots up as we move into the quarterfinals.

If you have been painstakingly building a book over the past months you might be a little disappointed with the present state of the market as many sides offer similar or better prices to those obtainable a good deal earlier :

Following the loss of Dan Carter NZ are now on the drift. The Carter issue highlights for the umpteenth time why punters are always very vulnerable when taking short prices. In racing terms this incident is akin to a saddle slip or being left in the stalls; it completely overturns all the meticulous preparation to date. Carter's injury also temporarily overshadows another issue : Just how fit is Richie McCaw? If his foot problem flares up again you may well have to wait 'another four years' if you are a Kiwi fan.

Judging by Interbet volumes I would be surprised if many bookmakers are 'in trouble' with NZ. They certainly will have had the opportunity to largely trade out of earlier positions.

So - in the case of NZ - early activity has largely been negated. You could have pitched this morning for a bet at a price last seen many weeks ago.

Apart from the Carter issue NZ - as has been the case in the past - also lack decent game time. Instead they have gobbled up a succession of minnow sides and a hopelessly out of form France on their way to the quarters. Not great preparation.


If you like Australia then you have juicy value to feast on. As 'clever' as they are reputed to be in their playing style I cannot help but feel that they are a side not dissimilar to the many WP teams that have trudged north to Pretoria for an all important crunch match against the Bulls. On these occasions their tight forward vulnerabilities are almost always exposed by a rabid pack of Bulle to the detriment of their 'fancy' backs. Given their chequered path through the pools I fear a similar slip in the knockout phases is also possible.

South Africa remain an enigma. They appear to have improved although you might have to concede that their form is no better or worse than that displayed by Wales - who are on offer at much better odds. Nevertheless - if you fancy them - then it is Christmas for you in the market.

England plod on. And probably on and on for awhile yet. The difference in style between the northern & southern hemisphere generally results in tight games on the scoreboard. So keep an eye open for unrealistically optimistic handicaps. ( A good example of this concept was Sunday where Wales were -19.5 to beat Fiji.
Collateral form with South Africa suggested that the handicap was quite generous ifo Wales ).

France. Who knows. Romantics will believe they have another 'wonder' game in them. Against England no 'wonder' is required so don't be surprised if they progress although they don't particularly deserve to.

Wales & Ireland have been amongst the most entertaining teams at the tournament. It's a great pity one of them will be eliminated this weekend as they both deserve to make it to the semis. For some unscientific reason I fancy Wales although both offer decent value.

I haven't mentioned Argentina and I don't think I need to. Yet surviving teams will be hoping that they extract a measure of attrition from NZ and blunt the latters' resources for the later matches. Again - this is a match where the handicap may offer opportunity.

With all of the above - BEWARE THE WEATHER!

my fancies for the quarters....
Ireland, England, Australia and NZ.
Hope i'm wrong with Aus game

I'll go with Whales, England, South Africa and Nieu Zealand

NZ, WALES, AUSTRALIA, ENGLAND

France, NZ, Ireland and SA...

Another thought provoking post from Garrick, have no choice have gone for All Blacks, but look forward to the other games, the Irish are doing well and would like to see them in the final.

NZ, SA, wales, england

England are crap, France WILL COME RIGHT in the quarters....

gregbucks Wrote:

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> England are crap, France WILL COME RIGHT in the
> quarters....


cant guarantee that GB.... a loss to tonga... eina... wont get my money....

WB, they like the Pakistanian Cricket team, awful most of the time BUT when they come to the party, world beaters...

I am with Mr H, England, Wales, Australia and NZ and an England, New Zealand final.

guys i'm no rugby fundi ,heck i don't know when why a team is awarded a penalty.
Maybe ive thrown money away by backing wales.
To me they where very unlucky not to beat the boks. I listened to their 22yo captain after 2 of their games and he really impresses me . They are strong and fast and never lost a line out.
Their quarterfinal match against Ireland will probably produce the match of the tournament !