vdj 2013, early form study, thoughts and fancies.

As we get closer to race day, I'm getting more confused; either this race will be dominated by the 3 yr olds (No Worries, Wylie Hall and CTN), or they are not good enough and if so not one of them will find a place - no way to know for sure until the race :S

Umgiyo X Full Combat X Regal Eagle

Frodo Wrote:

---

> As we get closer to race day, I'm getting more
> confused; either this race will be dominated by
> the 3 yr olds (No Worries, Wylie Hall and CTN), or
> they are not good enough and if so not one of them
> will find a place - no way to know for sure until
> the race :S


I have been looking at all the.three year old runs and it suggest that your latter assessment will prove more true.Maybe apart from Wild One and Wylie Hall I can't see them in the first 5.And its quite clear.

Interesting race the 2nd on Saturday where UMGIYO is strong favourite at 11/10 now, with DELAWARE BAY 2nd favourite at 11/2. In their last runs both beat ASSEGAI - UMGIYO by 2.50 lengths whereas DELAWARE BAY beat him 7.75 lengths.

29 MAY
12 UMGIYO (AUS) Anthony Delpech 2 c ? A 58.0 8 1 -2.50 84.93 27/20 7/2
3 ASSEGAI Keagan De Melo 2 c ? A 58.0*0.0 10 2 2.50 85.39 7/2 3/1

30 APRIL

KW273KW360 11 NINETEEN FOURTEEN Sean Cormack 2 c ? A 58.0 7 1 -0.25 86.69 4/1 22/10 CD833
GE641 7 DELAWARE BAY Anton Marcus 2 g ? A 58.0 3 2 0.25 86.74 12/10 14/10 GE742
CD604 1 ASSEGAI Keagan De Melo 2 c ? A 58.0*0.0 9 3 8.00 88.17 8/1 14/1 SV802

There is also a line between UMGIYO and Sunday's maiden winner MANIEVIC (12/1) through the consistent JAY BOY, who finished only 0.50 length behind UMGIYO but was beaten 4.50 lengths by MANIEVIC


12 UMGIYO (AUS) Anthony Delpech 2 c ? A 58.0 8 1 -2.50 84.93 27/20 7/2
CD604CD714 3 ASSEGAI Keagan De Melo 2 c ? A 58.0*0.0 10 2 2.50 85.39 7/2 3/1
6 JAY BOY Brandon Lerena 2 c ? A 58.0 5 3 3.00 85.49 9/2 9/1 CD898

CD655GE852 8 MANIEVIC M J Byleveld 2 c ? A 58.0 3 1 -4.25 90.26 7/2 22/10
SV822 4 DELAMERE Stuart Randolph 2 c ? A 58.0 6 2 4.25 91.07 22/1 10/1
SV802 7 JAY BOY Brandon Lerena 2 c ? A 58.0 7 3 4.50 91.12 3/1 4/1

The bookies are not taking any chances on the favourite, so are we to assume it is considered home and hosed, or are the other two great value?

Could be wrong.
Mensoora was supposedly off to dubai?alone with vercingetorix?
This is a good horse.
But a useful sort tells me berlinetta could make happy valentine not so happy.
Confusing coupling but don't leave out.

Nothing better than starting the day with a winner, R1 - Shimmer And Shine (6/1). This horse has got quite a bit going for it. About 7 months ago it was a MR 94 and is now MR 79. In it's last run it's MR was 81 and it ran 4/4 (6.75 lengths) to none other than Run For It (MR 106) in receipt of 5.5kgs wherein fact had it been a handicap it would have received about 12.5kgs - also second run in the province. Saturday, draw 5 and they have slapped on the blinkers:. For what it's worth, it opened 10/1 on Monday.

Don't tell anybody else, okay:D

Thanks Bayern Swg in Race 1 (10X 5x 6 x 13)

Happy Valentine is possibly the best 2yo filly i have seen in SA take any price

Using formgrids lbh, if you like full combat in the baby race who finished 1.68 lenghts behind astro news, then you have to fancy umgiyo in the 2nd who 2.47 lengths behind astro news over 1400m, with further improvement and if umgiyo appreciates the step up in trip, he should be hard to beat. And if he does win well it gives us a strong form line on the full combat race.

My train of thought on a bet like the QT for the VDJ, if you play, say 5 bankers by the field and it should happen that there is a DH you could be smiling. It gives more options on punting a horse or two on the nose. My 'on the nose' fancy is SEAL. My youngest daughter, without knowing any horse or number of horses came up to me over the weekend and the first thing she said is, 'Dad play number 14, please'! She won two prizes in two comps she entered recently, so I took her advise. (

Looks like a lovely card. I am going to play quartet on the July double floating the Snaith coupling by 10 horses, still don't feel safe not having the likes of No Worries and Whitelinefever so if you can afford to add more do it. Tribal Dance my outsider for the July.

Only playing Happy Valentine