Vaal Sand Stats

DRAW STATISTICS FOR VAAL SAND 2013

Whilst endeavouring to provide an indication of favourable and unfavourable draws I would be the first to admit that these figures can easily cause more confusion than clarity. This is due to the small sample sizes and inherent dynamics of course / races.

Detailed below are the draw numbers with the top percentages for each distance shown (bracketed figure is the number of races for that distance). This analysis only looked at races run in 2013.

WIN BOX PLACES (1st 4)

1000m…(37)……11, 14, 13…………13, 12, 4, 11, 7

1200m…(38)……4, 8, 7……………..5, 1, 7, 4, 3, 8

1450m…(27)……2, 4, 5, 3…………..4, 13, 6, 2, 12, 1

1600m…(29)……8, 9, 5, 6…………..4, 9, 1, 6, 8, 3

CONCLUSIONS: The effect of the draw is less significant than before, and has in some cases totally changed. No horse can be eliminated from consideration on barrier draw alone!
The bottom line (at least for me) is that the draw can no longer be relied upon as ‘first order information’ for selections (as used to be the case for the 1200+1450m races) and that it is now a ‘weaker’ supplement to other criteria such as form, trainer performances, etc.

1000m…from the first 9 months of this season (since Aug 2012) it was clear that draws 1-4 were the most favoured, yet from May to now (only 18 races) draws 10-13 clearly show the highest percentages.

1200m…whilst the lower draws (1-5) are still considered favourable their advantage over the higher draws have dissipated so that the win/place percentages for each draw is far more balanced. Furthermore, the ‘more favourable draw’ range has been extended from 1-5 to 1-8, again ‘weakening’ the advantage.

1450m…similar to the 1200m.

1600m…higher draws (above 9) slightly disadvantaged.

VAAL SAND COURSE VARIATIONS 2013

FIGURES EXPRESSED PER 1000m


DATE…………….FAST…….STD…….SLOW

11 Jul…………………………………….-0.5 secs
04 Jul…………………………………….-0.8 secs
26 Jun……………………………………-0.5 secs
20 Jun…………….+0.1secs
11 Jun……………………….….0
06 Jun……………………….….0
28 May…………………………………..-0.7 secs
23 May…………………………………..-0.7 secs
09 May…………………………………..-0.8 secs
23 Apr………………………….0
04 Apr………………………….0
26 Mar…………………….……0
14 Mar……………+0.1secs
28 Feb……………+0.5secs
14 Feb……………+0.4secs
29 Jan…………………………………..-0.3 secs
17 Jan………………………….0
10 Jan…………………………………..-0.8 secs

Figures shown are the mode (most common figure from all the races that day).
First race invariably runs 0.5 to 1 second faster than subsequent races. Also, often experience different course variations for sprints and distance races on same day.

The course is currently running slower than normal…do not think this is excessive.

Have still not identified any runners that show a preference for a slow or fast track!

TOP VAAL SAND TRAINERS 2013

(Based on 55pts - 1st, 30pts - 2nd, 20 pts - 3rd, 10 pts - 4th all divided by total runs).


GVW…23…..23% wins…64% places
MGA…23…..23% wins…62% places
WHM…19….21% wins…50% places
STP…...17….11% wins…64% places
PAP…..16….15% wins…50% places
SWK…16….20% wins…40% places
D.L…...16….17% wins…50% places
GVZ….14….16% wins…42% places
SGT…..13….15% wins…37% places
KGN….13….13% wins…45% places

Thanks! this was something I really wondered about, clarifies it more as you said in the sense that you cant discard a runner due to draw alone.

(tu)

great stuff

THH....great information...(tu) thanks for all your efforts...(tu)

Thanks THH very helpful. (tu)

Very good post THH.The VAAL SAND are more consistent than most think...simply becoz people tend to look at the wrong things when it comes to sand racing.

Fantastic info & stats!

As always THH.... thanks (tu) Takes that extra something to share information with others that your own hard endeavours give you the right to keep yourself, full credit to you (tu)

A couple of observations/questions if I may...
I don't fully understand the second post... how have you identified whether the track was running fast, standard or slow? Through your own assessment of the card, something "official" that is released or something else altogether I haven't thought of ?

For races over 1000, I suspect that from August to May the "going" was fast/standard and that is perhaps why lower numbers were preferred at that time, there does seem to be a link from May that high numbers are much preferred and since then the going has almost always been slow. I also checked the results for races over 1000 on the two dates in January when the going was slow but in the time period you state low numbers were preferred... they show a distinct preference to those drawn higher.

There may well be similar connections between the "going" for races over other distances.

Surely the information from the above top two paragraphs demands that the powers that be do release something pre-racing that states whether the going is fast, standard or slow as they do with pen readings for turf. Do you (or anyone) know whose responsibility it is to provide this information so this can be "demanded" of them?

When you assessed the draw influence, have you taken account the number of runners in each race? I know that winning form do not take any note of this when doing their graphs but obviously if there are fields of, just say, 8 runners or less, then obviously the results are going to show a bias to those drawn 1-8 as they are used much more frequently.

The "obvious" thing to me from these stats, to at least try in races over 1200+ on slow going, if I were a jockey, would be to get to the bend and then head out "wide" away from the rail... if the going over 1000 is much better on the high draw side and over distance the high draws do much better then it tells me that a low draw is still favourable over 1200 plus as it still gives you the advantage of, all being well, getting to the bend in the position you want to be, it is where you go from the bend where the "mistake" is perhaps made.

Vaal Sand tomorrow... THH's hard work should not be forgotten for any who may find it useful

This is brilliant work by a true scholar. Thank you THH

And I cannot agree more with Heinrich that sand racing is more consistent than people believe.

Have a great sand season, Clan