THIS IDIOT'S TAKE ON THE GOLD CUP

It’s time for some light relief again. I’ve seen the earnest men with their furrowed brows ‘analysing’ the Gold Cup field. ‘Kilo here, kilo there’, ‘turnover at weights’ and all the usual claptrap designed to fool us into believing that there is some sort of indisputable formula that can be unerringly applied to working out winners.

So how did that method work out for you on July day? Not so good…..

My bookmaker once told me : Let them guess! It took me years to work it out. Now I only punt horses at prices that aggravate him. Lol. Because most times that’s all I get out of it.

Sadly I have only whisky and a dart to assist me in this quest. But I fancy my chances although I am certain my judgement would have been w-a-a-y better if there had been a stray zol floating around.

So what do we have here? The usual sorry lot of ‘not quite good enough for the July’ horses claiming stamina as an excuse for actually being rather slow. They’ll meander around Greyville and a small percentage might even raise a gallop in the short home straight.

Nevertheless there is a fascination in attempting to find the candidate most likely to fall over the line first.

As is my habit we turn the betting board upside down in the search for that elusive winner:

SCOOP THE POOL (40/1) : Pardon me but this runner is unfortunately named in this context. Is Forbes that short on riding fees? All credit for going from a maiden to the Gold Cup in 6 months but even I will pass.

Aside : When did bookmakers stop offering 66/1 and 100/1 on horses at the bottom of the boards?

MASAI WARRIOR (25/1) : Trainer Azzie must be in credit with horse transporters! Why else would he have entered this horse? However – there is a glimmer offered by the fact that it appears to have successfully seen out the trip. More than can be said for most of its competitors.

WAGNER (25/1) : My old favourite and the horse whose name Clyde Basel famously pronounced as if it were ‘Wagter die hond’. God Bless the illiterates who lead us! Make them all Phumelela directors. Does not appear not have tried the trip. Maybe the clue is in its name and you will ‘wag’ for it to arrive. Possibly a long time.

SAGE THRONE (20/1) : Ran not far off the winner last year. ( And the relevance of that is….? ) Dynasty out of Badger Land ……..now observe all ‘pedigree victims’ nodding away as if that is a mystical key to the breeding kingdom. Will it improve? Could but probably won’t.

DUBAI GINA (20/1) : There or thereabouts over shorter. Beware horses with form over 2400m. They often fail dismally over the marathon trip. And why not? The difference of 800m is like expecting a miler to get a mile and a half. Not guaranteed. Good run in the J&B Reserve Stayers but more weight to carry over further.

ADOBE PINK (20/1) : I get mildly uncomfortable when I see this horse’s name. Is it a euphemism for a vagina? Or does it celebrate print software. Can someone explain? More importantly – will it win the Gold Cup? I don’t know but it will not carry my money.

JEPPE’S REEF (20/1) : I sniff potential here and don’t know why. But I would treat with utmost respect.

RIVER CROSSING (18/1) : Where do they come with silly prices like 9/1 and 18/1? It’s all academic because most bookmakers shy away from laying anything ‘odds against’. Here’s another with potential. Gets the trip. Consider.

PADDY O’REILLY (16/1): It is not unknown for horses with homes in PE or PE form to win this race. Which speaks volume about the quality. But if I make the fatal mistake of applying collateral form then it appears to be held by others. Confused.

E-JET (16/1) : In form stable but does not appear to have gone this far before. Based on July run should not get the trip. But then it might not have relished the going. I’m unconvinced and feel the price is skinny based on known form.

CANTERBURY TALE (16/1): My idea of a Gold Cup winner. Correct price. Appropriate trainer. Second string so watch Delpech’s face if it wins! As they say in the Mastercard ad – Priceless . Gets the trip.

GOLD ONYX (14/1): Can Khumalo strike again? Sure he can. Will he win? Unsure. Does he stay? Unsure. Should I punt him? Dunno.

BLAKE(12/1): Proven stayer. No ‘K Factor’ to worry about as the horse is a big price. Tough and consistent. An almost gilt edged place chance based on Kannemeyer’s form this season. Respect.

S’IL VOUS PLAIT(10/1): Thereabouts in stayers events. Not sure about 2 mile capability. Ferraris horses often don’t shine at non-galloping tracks and Greyville in particular. Probably a touch skinny in the betting.

SHOGUNNAR(10/1): Has this horse tried this trip? Not sure. But I’d rather have Seal than Shogunnar over this distance at these weights. Truthfully, I would rather have neither.

SEAL(9/1):This was my choice to win the July. It finished last so I must, therefore, be a singularly gifted tipster. What did surprise me was how s-l-o-o-w this horse was in the big feature. Far from ‘going to the front’ it was never actually able to get there and was caught 4 wide with Herholdt giving a good impression of ‘panic stricken jockey with no plan B’ as he struggled unsuccessfully to get in.

If I learned anything it was that this horse seems to need a big, galloping track so that it can ease up to or away from the pack and grind out a win.
Its performance makes a lot of collateral form around it a little suspect but I assume it will appreciate the expected better going on Saturday.

KOLKATA (8/1): Horses that have won the Gold Vase often do not follow up in the Gold Cup. I am going to be arsey and brass this one. Taking on Strydom and the in form Tarry yard could be disastrous but it would not be the first time that racing allows me a good sight of my own rectum.

KNIGHT TO REMEMBER(6/1) : Held by Canterbury Tale so I can’t have it. Happily the horse does not know this. I would be embarrassed having to admit that I took 6/1 in the Gold Cup when most of the runners do not merit being quoted at less than 10/1.

PATRIOTIC REBEL (11/2) : Until DeKock came along I would have scoffed at the prospect of 3yr olds running in, let alone winning, the Gold Cup. Now I rather keep quiet but still find it difficult to fathom. I think this is quite an ask but then what do I know?

South African stayers are, on average, drek. I reckon you could safely put them up against a Champion Hurdle field and the latter would probably beat them in addition to having to make the jumps.

But the Gold Cup does offer the opportunity to back a winner at a price better than the standard 7/10 or worse that characterises much of the dross that we are fed week in and week out.

You can have a good laugh at my expense when all the horses I have rubbished make up the quartet.

And remember this : With 19 runners I will be 94% correct even if I have written off every single horse! So most of the nonsense written here is going to look positively prophetic come Saturday evening.

Txs Garrick , I will not be punting this race unless something goes money on over the next couple of days :S

Was Hawkins (1983?) the last horse to do the Vase/Cup double?

well at least you right about Blake

Mac was that Graeme or the horse?

scotia Wrote:

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> Mac was that Graeme or the horse?


hahahaha
Ja, it was the last time Graeme had a winner

Gold cup for GOLD ONYX Khumalo in the winners box a very good bet

Have to say I haven't a clue and have settled on Shogunner/E-Jet/S'illvous Plait/Patriotic Rebel...........and if they don't stay ,I'm out!!!

Ha ha ha ... love this sort of commentary... absolutely awesome.
Keep it coming Garrick, very cool.
At least we not bludgeoned with repetative crap about 'form' and the delussion that follows.... have a punt and enjoy the 'ride'

Agree with Garrick. Looking at the current fields for "elite" races, are we starting to feel the effects of our better runners leaving our shores?

hahaha Garrick - i think for a hot tip i'm going to set my dart on fire !

rob faux Wrote:

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> Have to say I haven't a clue and have settled on
> Shogunner/E-Jet/S'illvous Plait/Patriotic
> Rebel...........and if they don't stay ,I'm out!!!


Well E-Jet won't even start, never mind stay :