Taking a chance and gone with a few roughies today, could end up first or, more probably lol, last. Workriders so tread carefully. As ever please post comments. selections on the daily thread rather than here. Different format today, probably harder on the eyes, sorry! lol
WORKRIDERS MEETING
RACE 1 - 1800 MAIDEN
NOBLE WIND finished 0.75l behind ASIATIC PEARL back on Sept 5th over c/d but with the better draw turnaround and the more experienced jockey on board I think it fair to think that NW could reverse that form here. DAY AT THE RACES and FRENCH APPROVAL were much further back and have nothing to recommend them, though it should be said if DATR could recapture her best form then she could feature. CRITICAL MIND ran her first three career races on this course and achieved nothing. She returned here in her penultimate run and was beaten 11l over 1450, has the 1 draw and a fair WR up but she has no top 3s in 4 visits and I am not convinced she likes the surface. BUDDY'S FALCON was a further 5l behind CM in that 1450 run and though she tries this d at the c for the first time she has no top 3s in her 3 c visits and can't be recommended. S'WAY has been beaten 10.5l (1000) and 17l (1200) and the furthest she has gone on the turf is 1600 (beaten 9l) and Semela up is the only reason I can see for giving her any sort of chance. That leaves only MDKs MINK TRIP. Nothing in the breeding to suggest she will definitely enjoy the surface and he may just be "giving it a go". If she is ok on the sand then she should win as the opposition is not great but there is no guarantee she will do so and as she is likely to be short in the market she could be worth opposing. Reluctantly... NOBLE WIND x ASIATIC PEARL x S'WAY
RACE 2 - 1450 MAIDEN
KERRY ROSE was beaten 20.5l in her only c run to date and her overall form is poor. That said, she was drawn 12/12 of that day and though the breeding gives no indication better can be expected she did finish a 0.5l 2nd in her only attempt at the d on the turf and that was under Semela who is up again here. It was a very weak field though. SMOOTH SAILING finished 13.5l ahead of KR in that sand run from the 8 draw. She has yet to be in the top 3 though in 5 c runs with her best a 5.25l 4th over 1000 when 100/1. RAINBOW WARBLER hails from a stable whose form has improved of late and her breeding suggests a chance she will take to the surface, Duma is up and she goes from the 1 box. That combination of factors gives her a better chance than most imo. TULAO comes to the sand after a 44 week break and was not closer than 11l of the winner in her three turf runs. Nothing in the breeding suggests she is about to set the world alight. PRINCESS BRYERLY gets the 3 box and Mosia up but she was beaten 10.75l in her only c run over 1200 and 1.25l behind ROYAL QUEST. She normally weakens but has run the d twice on turf without being disgraced. RQ has run a 2.25l 4th over 1200 (the 5th won nto but that was the race RQ and PB competed in!). She has no top 3s in 4 c runs, has a jockey who has one third in his last 30+ rides and a wide draw in 9. I would expect Mosia to reverse the form. CALYPSO GIRL has finished 2.75l infront of RQ in a run over c/d but a 7l third over c/d is the closest she has got to the winner in 5 c runs. Jockey has one 4th in 15 rides and drawn widest. SHARDUL gets Mabaya up but she is on 2nd run after a 15 week rest and nothing in the breeding screams that she will love the surface. JOAN might be the one to surprise. She has had three poor runs on the turf but it is possible to "create" reasons why each was not as bad as it may seem at first glance. That said, she was well beaten in all three runs but, there is a small chance on breeding that she will like the surface. With a decent WR up and the 2 draw she could be a surprise improver. SABOLA is drawn 10 and not been within 22l of the winner in her 3 c runs. There is nothing in the breeding to suggest LATINO ICE will like the surface, she has had 2 poor turf runs, is drawn 11, has an inexperienced jockey, and the stable's other two runners have the more experienced riders. A very poor event where I'm going to chance... RAINBOW WARBLER x JOAN x PRINCESS BRYERLY
RACE 3 - 1000 MAIDEN
RISING TIGER, COMBAT CAT, WHO DAT, and SNAKE DANCE were all recently well behind FLIGHT OF EAGLES and/or GLOBAL TALK and should have no chance of reversing the form. Any Lucky H runner has to be respected at the moment and PAPA JOE was not disgraced over this trip on the turf in his second career run lto but there is nothing in the breeding to indicate he will prefer this surface and a watching brief for me. EUSEBIUS was drawn widest over the 1200 on his c debut and 2nd career run, he was quick and infront to the 800 and faded badly in the closing stages but is likely imo to prefer this drop in trip. He was only 2.25l off the third who has won since. The jockey has yet to win in 16 rides but he does have six top 4 finishes in his short career to date. AMOUR DE LA BONTE has a little in the breeding that implies he may like the surface and Ndlovu is aboard. JIMMY'S LIGHTNING has a jockey who has won a race but not finished in the top 3 in any of his other 60-odd rides. The stable does have three in the field though and Feni is probably the best of the three jockeys and he rides Snake Dance. However, JL could be the e/w risk bet if the price allows. On his second c appearance (penultimate run) the saddle slipped. In the run prior, he ran a 5l 5th over 1200 when drawn 12/12. The 2nd ran silver again nto and 3rd, 4th and 6th all won nto. He doesn't have the best draw again in 8 and I am not convinced he wouldn't be better over further but some of these do tend to tire and he may be able to pick them off late. LE CONFIDANT is on debut and the breeding suggests he has a good chance of taking to the surface and he has Duma up. Has to come into the reckoning. The two with the strongest sand form to date are FLIGHT OF EAGLES (Mosia) and GLOBAL TALK (Semela) with the latter finishing 1.25l of his rival over c/d lto. FOE was coming off a 28 week rest in that run so a reversal would not be a big surprise and he may also offer the better value of the two. They are the two obvious candidates but I don't think it is necessarily a 2 horse race. Especially with the two jockeys involved, they could dominate but, Papa Joe, Eusebius, Amour De La Bonte, Le Confidant and Jimmy's Lightning all have "positives" which give them a chance. I'd like to see the prices but my hunch at the moment is... EUSEBIUS x JIMMY'S LIGHTNING x LE CONFIDANT
RACE 4 - 1000 H'CAP-68
RODEO DANDY is not the most consistent and indeed has been well beaten in his last three c starts. He is capable on his day though and has Semela up. GOLDSTREAM is seemingly also not the most consistent on the surface but is a better sand runner than his one third in 11 c starts, 10 over this d, would imply. His last sand run was at Bingo when, albeit in a decent field, he was a 6.25l 8th when 4/1 fav. He has not been on c for over a year and was well beaten in his last run here but, in his penultimate he was a 1.75l 4th and has previously run KWAAIWATER to 1.35l and RD (when in better form) to 3l. K is now 13kgs better off. RD 1 kg better off. Mosia is aboard which must help his chances but he really has something still to prove on the surface to convince me he will be a winner here. SALUTE THE SAND only came out of the maidens at the 20th attempt lto over c/d. Nevertheless, he is fairly consistent and since returning to the sand 6 runs back he has not been out of the top 4, Ndlovu rides and has a chance. He was beaten in his penultimate run 0.75l by MARTIN who also makes his first appearance since winning that maiden. He is now 3kgs worse off with STS but showed big improvement in that run turning around a 5.5l reversal with STS and this will be only his third run, If there is more improvement then he could well confirm the form. Duma is up and the stable has been in reasonable form of late. My concern is that he only beat Royal Stock by 2l and that one was beaten 10l by Chief Sioux. Lto JETSONS was beaten only 0.75l by Chief Sioux. Jetsons is another consistent trier, only finishing out of the top 4 twice in 10 runs since he last won back in December. He was 1l and 1.4l ahead of JOLLY GOOD SIR and Kwaaiwater lto. He is 0.5kgs worse off with JGS and 5.5l better off with Kwaaiwater. In the previous run he was 0.5l ahead of JGS and is now 0.5kgs worse off (Kwaaiwater 3.25l back and both SPANISHLILY and SWING AWAY much further behind). Was also infront of JGS, Kwaaiwater and RD in his run before those. Has Chamaya up and has a decent shout at the spoils. JGS must also have a chance based on those runs but it does appear that Jetsons may just have his measure. Not the worst WR aboard, Moagi has finished in the top 6 in all but one of his last 12 rides but has just the one win in 28 career efforts. Kwaaiwater is also not out of it but does seem held and without the appie on board has something to find at the weights. SPANISHLILY has been better in her last two over 1200 but has only one third in 6 c/d runs and looks well held on the run behind Gold Prospector. The same can be said of SWING AWAY but he showed improvement lto when only beaten 2.5l by Twilight Elva. If he is finally finding some form on this c then might be worth an R1 e/w saver if a huge price but really he should have too much to find with some of these especially as the jockey has had just the two rides, though he did manage to get 3rd on a 100/1 shot first time out. TAKE ME ON won his maiden here over 1200 but other than that he has not been in the top 3 in 7 attempts and was well behind JGS and Kwaaiwater lto. MON WALLY has not been on c since January but has not finished within single figure lengths of the winner in his three runs here and the jockey has only 3 top 3s in 60-odd rides, though he was 3rd in his penultimate effort. I think there are a couple who may go well including the two coming out of the maidens but they do appear well held on the collateral through Royal Stock. There is always promise of more from RD and Goldstream but they are often short in the market and fail to deliver so I'd rather go with... JETSONS x JOLLY GOOD SIR x MARTIN
RACE 5 - 1000 H'CAP-68
15 runners so to keep the jottings down I did a quick glance for no hopers to get them out of the way quickly... and found just one! so on first look, it seems to be a competitive sprint with chances aplenty. TIGER QUEST is an interesting contender. Perhaps disappointing in her last two on turf but prior to that gained her second career win in 6 starts on c debut here over 1200. Beat three other previous winners in the field of 8 and 2 others have won since. Ndlovu rides and if the sand brings about a return to form, she has to have a chance though unsure the drop in d is ideal. PRINCESS ALBERTA has been in good form recently on the turf and at Bingo but has failed to fire in 6 visits to this c and looks held, Until that improves she is hard to recommend and jockey only has 3 top 3s in 60-odd rides. HOWHIGHCANYOUFLY is a consistent performer and is rarely far off. Without the services of the appie she is held at the weights by CLUB CAPTAIN on the c/d runs behind Tayba and Kinematic Countess but she does now have the much more experienced WR jockey in Semela, Was beaten by TWILIGHT ELVA last week in a significant turnaround of form from their previous meeting. Plenty of form-lines all which indicate that under this jockey she has to have a chance but she has yet to win on c in 14 attempts and is 0-3-0 in 10 c/d run and she does have a fair bit to gind now with TE... finished that one quickly as had enough for now lol... TIGER QUEST x TWILIGHT ELVA x CLUB CAPTAIN
RACE 6 - this is a really poor and difficult race full of inconsistent horses and who knows which will be revved up on the day. BRAD'S SURGE improved a full 5 seconds under Strydom lto, can he really bring about that much improvement in a horse? And more to the point, will a workrider be able to do the same over shorter? Possible but... BAREBACK with Semela up would probably have been my choice but for the wide draw, he can come with a late rattle though and Semela might be able to get him into a decent position to strike in this field, catching him right on the day though would perhaps seem a bigger issue. TAKAAMUL is perhaps a little less inconsistent than some here but is still hard to predict and he has finished behind Bareback in 3 of their last 4 meetings. MAKE MY MAJESTY troubles me, drawn in 1 with a jockey who has been in good form in recent rides and has a decent record for this trainer. But, the horse has tried the surface (including on debut) and been beaten 22l (1200 drawn 8/11) and 42l (1600). Now, it could be that the debut run was needed (but, if so, why wait 16 races to try again?) and the second may have been too far. The nag is, why keep coming back to the sand if the horse really is not suited to the surface as the results seem to indicate? Trainer is also the owner. If it was a bigger price I would have a go but not at the current price as there is just no evidence to suggest the horse likes the sand. ROAMING IN ROME is another who pops up with a decent run occasionally and on that basis can't be completely discounted. CLEARLY KEEN has no top 3s in 6 c visits and an overall record of 0-2-1 in 21 distance runs, not entirely impossible but can't be recommended. All of which just leaves MICROSTATE and somewhat incredibly this is the one I am going to go with. Firstly, I changed my mind at least three times as to my selection so when so unsure why not at least go for one at a double-figure price? I will also be hoping he drifts. He has only had the two course visits, both over this 1200, and was beaten 6l and 20l. Usually enough to make me pass but in this field I looked a little closer. The two runs followed a 25 week rest and in the first of them he finished just 2.4l behind Takaamul giving the latter 3kgs. They renewed rivalry in the second run. The horse tripped and trailed in a 20l distant last. The most notable thing about the run though was that Striker had been booked for the ride so perhaps better was hoped for... and I think it quite likely PS did not give the horse a hard ride after the trip (supported by the fact he was 18.5l behind Takaamul). He was giving Takaamul 3kgs in that run. Since those two runs he has made an appearance on the turf and finished a respectable 5.8l 5th to Bouclette Top, weakening over 1450. The first three in that field had all won their previous runs and the third, only 2.3l infront of Microstate, was Henry of York. It is perhaps also important to note that he won his maiden in his second run having been 4th on debut. After the win though he had 30 weeks off, his form seemed to plummet and when he ran on the sand he was coming off his third rest in only 6 career runs. There is a implication that he may have had issues and it is possible he is now over them. The impression I get is that he is a better horse than the bare form suggests, of course it may simply be my mind creating something that isn't there but in this field, at a double figure price, I'll take the chance, certainly won't feel like egg on the face if he trails in last, that is just the way it goes sometimes! He is now 4kgs better off (edited, apologies for previous "error" ) with Takaamul and the competent Ndlovu, who has won 2 of his last 3 and 3 of his last 7 rides at odds of 14/1, 16/1 and 25/1, has been booked... MICROSTATE x BAREBACK x BRAD'S SURGE
RACE 7... I have a concern with VELDDRIFTER over this distance (after being prompted by Mr H to be weary of him over this distance the last time he tried this trip) and on that basis I am going to overlook him here and concentrate on the three I see as the main contenders. The Erasmus runner KING SCOTT has a much better draw here but not a jockey with a great record but usually goes well when drawn well and he has the 1 box here. ETERNITY represents the bang in form A Laird stable and was very close to getting the vote. His jockey has a fair recent record, including a win on this horse over 2000 on the turf. He has a slightly wide draw in 9 though and comes off a 16 week rest and although I think this stable usually has their horses ready to run after a rest it is a small minus. In the end, despite being his first run out of the maidens I am going to chance JUDGE THE STRIDE again. Mosia rides and he rode the horse to 2nd on the turf over 1450 in his penultimate run. He then won his maiden over c/d beating Ajuba by 2.75l. It was a weak field but the third was beaten 9.5l and Ajuba was a comfortable winner nto (albeit in a similarly poor field). He has the 4 draw and I am hoping the combination of the draw and competent jockey will give him the edge needed... JUDGE THE STRIDE x ETERNITY x KING SCOTT
RACE 8... Imperial Empress was well beaten on sand debut over 1000 but ran against some decent sorts that day. Her only other course appearance was lto and though beaten 7l and 4.5l behind Set To Strike over c/d, she was drawn very wide (10/11). She has had a series of very poor draws but some ok runs despite that. Gets 4 today with Ndlovu up and that could be enough to see her feature. STS obviously comes into the equation on that run and is drawn 1 on third run after a rest but, jockey unknown at this time. The Angelus and Summer Sari both won well lto but might find this tougher from wider draws. Cerise Silk is usually thereabouts and has Semela up. Perfect Winter will probably improve on her last two over 1600 now that she is back to 1450, has the 2 box with Mabaya riding. STS has probably improved since but PW is well weighted to confirm placings with STS on the June run behind Miravar. Stablemate Danielle could also be in the mix if bringing her recent improvement on the turf to the sand... IMPERIAL EMPRESS x PERFECT WINTER x SET TO STRIKE
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