July P6 Stats

Was doing a little bit of random research and went through some recent P6 payouts at greyville over the years, and came up with a few pointers i think could help punters.

Last 5 years of P6:
R916k (2013)
R313k (2012)
R118k (2011)
R723k (2010)
R311k (2008)

Now average this out we get R476k

Also 4 of these years included P6's where couplings applied, so these figures will underestimate true non coupling payouts. So we could say this R476k figure is about 30% too small, thus giving us around R619k.

The next question one would ask is: How would the new runner rules affect this? Well not each race used to have 20 runners. So lets for arguments sake say that 2 out of the 6 races will be affected, or a total of 8 possible selections gone. 2/6= 33%.
Now since 33% of the races will be affected by 4/20=20%....we take 33% x 20% and get 6.6% true affect of what the new stalls gates should have an affect on the payout.

So going back to R619k x (100%-6.6%) = R578k

All this says is play wide and catch a %. I think most of us work out P6's that come to a gross R5k or R10k and take %'s because we think its going to pay R50k like a normal days racing. What we should actually be doing is using stats like this, saying that our average payout is infact 10x more, it should not be difficult to conclude that it is in everyone's best interest to take larger perms because of this.

An example of a big P6 could be structured something like 10x7x6x8x9x1 (Which is a lot of horses in each leg) (This is how i've structured each leg). With an average payout of 20x more than that, a 1% bet would cost R300, and payout average of R5780.

Let's say for instance you go and bank Beach Beauty in the back at 5/10...Working out a P6 like this, would (Based on averages) give you a 20/1 bet on the 5/10 shot. (If you want to look at it that way).


Just something i thought i'd share after thinking about it!

Maybe i have lost the plot thou haha! Good luck to all playing and will see you there

that is some useful info. much appreciated

Thanks mate

Nice post Bushy......

Is it not possible to go one step further and take several more R300 perms for the 1% changing the banker each time?

1% perm for R300.00...personally I think that is a waste of time...that means it needs to pay at least R30K just to break square...not worth it...UNLESS it pays bombs!!

Nice post

Noordhoek Ice Wrote:

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> 1% perm for R300.00...personally I think that is a
> waste of time...that means it needs to pay at
> least R30K just to break square...not worth
> it...UNLESS it pays bombs!!


You did actually read the OP's post right? Did you see the average payout for the last 5 years WITHOUT the new coupling rules?

Noordhoek Ice Wrote:

---

> 1% perm for R300.00...personally I think that is a
> waste of time...that means it needs to pay at
> least R30K just to break square...not worth
> it...UNLESS it pays bombs!!


It going to pay bomb coz - hot ticket and the leg is late is running last(tu)