July fancies and betting

TNaicker
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Re: July fancies and betting

10 years 1 month ago

Prish007 wrote: I agree Wylie Hall once again this year, would have loved to cash my ticket on him last year thou much better odds

Paid more for a place last year than to win this year...

Guess we might as well enjoy the July whilst it is still around...just wait till the powers that be set their sights on that race !!

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Bob Brogan
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Re: July fancies and betting

10 years 1 month ago

#555029

I see Stan Elleys horse has been scratched from the Longsdail? What price for the July?

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Sharky
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Re: July fancies and betting

10 years 1 month ago

#555031

Ertijhaal, The Conglomerate, Leagle Eagle, Futura, Inara, can't see the winner coming from anywhere else but one of those..!

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bayern
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Re: July fancies and betting

10 years 4 weeks ago - 10 years 4 weeks ago

#555502

Just my theory, if you fancy Futura, then take whatever price is available before Majmu runs in the Woolavington. Win or lose, the Majmu backers could be on a hiding to nothing. If she wins, and impressively at that, she might leave the country, conversely, if she gets beat, they might scratch her. The point being, if Majmu is withdrawn, Futura in all probability would be adjusted into a shorter price. Again, just my opinion, I could be way off.

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

Last edit: 10 years 4 weeks ago by bayern.

The following user(s) said Thank You: Dean321

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oscar
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Re: July fancies and betting

10 years 4 weeks ago

#555508

Majmu for the July

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PeterD
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Re: July fancies and betting

10 years 4 weeks ago

#555519

On her last run behind Wylie Hall, I reckon Majmu is too short in the betting for the July. She needs to win the Woolavington by 3lengths or better to justify her current price and the weight (55kg) she has to carry in the July. Why is she 5/1 and Inara 66/1 at a 2 kg weight difference? At the weights there can't be much difference between them.
Similarly, The Conglomerate needs to improve a kilo or two on what he has shown to date, and also looks quite short in the betting vs the likes of Legal Eagle and French Navy.
The picture will hopefully be a lot clearer after this Saturday's racing.
As for Futura, he is the best horse in the race, but has got to carry the weight. He isn't any better than Pocket Power, who managed only a dead heat once in three tries on top weight after doddling the Queens Plate and Met every year. His current price is also skinny.
My value picks at this weeks ante post prices are Legal Eagle at 14/1; French Navy at 33/1 and Inara at 66/1.

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drdom
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Re: July fancies and betting

10 years 4 weeks ago

#555533

3y.o form is not reliable this year. Every week a new prospect. Majmu is fantastic but although dominant in what's probably a good crop of fillies , none of the fillies ( those 2 sprinters excepted), has actually taken on the best 3 yo colts and done well against them as yet. So as good as she is I think it will be still tough for Majmu to win.
The older males, especially the proven Wylie hall would be a far better bet in my opinion .
Still suspect French Navy or Ertijaal could put in a performance that could radically change the betting.

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ColinP
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Re: July fancies and betting

10 years 4 weeks ago - 10 years 4 weeks ago

#555540

thank you PeterD.Inara seems to be keeping her form well so looking at her performance against Majmu (1600) and her run in the KRA fillies guinaes you cannot have Majmu for the July!

Last edit: 10 years 4 weeks ago by ColinP.

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Frodo
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Re: July fancies and betting

10 years 4 weeks ago

#555546

PeterD wrote: On her last run behind Wylie Hall, I reckon Majmu is too short in the betting for the July. She needs to win the Woolavington by 3lengths or better to justify her current price and the weight (55kg) she has to carry in the July. Why is she 5/1 and Inara 66/1 at a 2 kg weight difference? At the weights there can't be much difference between them.
Similarly, The Conglomerate needs to improve a kilo or two on what he has shown to date, and also looks quite short in the betting vs the likes of Legal Eagle and French Navy.
The picture will hopefully be a lot clearer after this Saturday's racing.
As for Futura, he is the best horse in the race, but has got to carry the weight. He isn't any better than Pocket Power, who managed only a dead heat once in three tries on top weight after doddling the Queens Plate and Met every year. His current price is also skinny.
My value picks at this weeks ante post prices are Legal Eagle at 14/1; French Navy at 33/1 and Inara at 66/1.

I mostly agree...............on Majmu, The Conglomerate, and your value picks (which I have all backed at those prices) - I am worried about whether the intention is to run LE in the July and I disagree (matter of opinion) on Futura - I think he is exceptional and his current price also reflects good value imo

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