Clairwood 28 May 2008

Early fancies:

R1: Royal Hero (Checklist) Checklist made a sensational debut, and will win within the next few starts, but i don't think it is the one today....so Royal Hero is a not so confident selection, because I would still be wary of checklist.
R2: Gold 'n Diamonds (Portmanteau) Difficult call here, but Gold 'n Diamonds should improve off last run - or do we wait till they get a qualified jockey up on it or go with the favourite of the day?
R3: Happy Rituals (Bella Rhus) Happy Rituals has had plenty of oppurtunity , but almost cracked it at 20/1 first time out for the new stable and has a bit more than that to come, considering has been hanging in the finish on last two.
R4: Starzene (Delmonica) Delmonica has run close to some useful sorts and it defies logic that this horse hasn't won a maiden, Sturgeon takes the ride on Platinum Ice. While Starzenes first run shouts of potential, she's the one that has to answer some questions and while likely to get this distance , the old addage says "never back a horse to do what it hasn't done before".
R5: Brassy Jet (Not For Publication) - Brassy Jet seems plagued with breathing problem so may prefer Not For Publication. Brassy Jet could upstage him though if his problems are sorted.
R6: Kevino's boy is probably the one to beat, Flambeau would be a strong runner -if he runs, and vimba as well. Jumbo Jet could surprise but is drawn out in no man's land, and has yet to prove this distance. With at most 2 lengths between these three, and the size of this field....could be a risky play.
R7 : Royal Day looks hard to beat here, Adamy about the only challenger - but suffers from a poor draw. Look for Silver Peak to run a place. Dog star be there abouts, but I can't see him beating Royal Day.
R8 : Blue Swift looks strong here , but Laird and Marcus have played second fiddle a number of times now, Zooming Zellie is consistent over this odd distance,Money can't buy me love could feature - but think more ground may suit, Winter Ade, Stealing Roses could feature. Would like to see a few laird/marcus wins again before investing.
R9: Marwings could pull it off again on Miami Boy - Looks a useful sort. Wonder if Accept an Ace shouldn't be competing over 1000m, would be interested to see him compete there again. Fiery Sunset is a sleeper here with potential for the combinations.

I am only interested in R7 - Royal Day, and will watch the betting on Miami Boy.

If you owned or trained the following horses, would you be banking on them to win, or more interested in assessing potential. I have added my thought by means of ( backing (A) assessing, and why I would take the approach if trained them.

Happy Rituals ? ( I would be hoping it could win, not to say it could
Starzene (A) shown potential, would like to see how good it is.
Brassy Jet (A) has had breathing problems? will recover or career be seriosuly affected.
Adamy, Dog Star (A) Like to see how they compete against horses like Royal Day.
Blue Swift ( This seems to be the distance where he will race, and unlikely to go on to the mile, and the classics, Capable of beating this field.
Miami Boy ( Classy youngster, that can't be messing about waiting for a maiden win.

Any other ideas around this horse?

Fancy Lady Deleen to run a cracker in the 4th.Stolen Gold a lurker later on.Lady Deleen at 16/1 and Stolen Gold at 50/1.Small wager taken.

Early betting (Interbet and Blackpearlbetting) :

Race 1, 12/10 Winterwonderland; 22/10 Royal Hero; 28/10 Whitewater Rafting; 9/2 Checklist; 6/1 The Treasurer; 16/1 Copper Dancing;

Race 2, 6/10 Ntanbankhulu; 5/2 Spinster; 4/1 Portmanteau; 8/1 Gold 'n Diamonds; 12/1 Time to Travel; 14/1 bar
Scratched, Crocodile Hunter

Race 3, 15/10 Sweet Voodoo; 5/2 Royal Highness; 4/1 Kelly's Promise; 6/1 Winter Promise; 8/1 Trust Fund Babe; 16/1 bar

Race 4, 14/10 Starzene; 33/10 Into the Red; 4/1 Delmonica; 9/2 Hundred Runs; 10/1 Oopsidiitagain; 14/1 bar
Scratched, Rustic Sun

Race 5, 22/10 Mutadarreg; 5/2 Brassy Jet; 3/1 Notforpublication; 8/1 Seychelles, Night Wind; 10/1 Electrocase; 16/1 bar

Race 6, 7/2 Le Baux, Kevino's Boy; 5/1 Watermark; 7/1 Vimba; 12/1 Capture my Heart, Le Grand Nation; 16/1 bar

Race 7, 7/2 Dog Star; 4/1 Royal Day; 9/2 Keep Flying; 6/1 Adamy; 7/1 Meteor Shower; 8/1 El Padrino; 10/1 Nkosenkhulu; 12/1 Do it like Dane; 14/1 bar

Race 8, 22/10 Moneycantbymelove; 5/2 Blue Swift; 7/2 Rambo's Fantasy, Zooming Zellie; 6/1 Winter Ade; 25/1 bar

Race 9, 1/1 Miami Boy; 3/1 Alitalia; 4/1 London Action; 9/2 Accept an Ace; 10/1 Alez Maurice; 33/1 bar

Ntanbankhulu & Brassy Jet Dbl is all for me today - ouzo guys!

R5 Seychelles
R6 Watermark
R7 Look Skyward (e/way)

Shockers today, both favorites ran shit races.

What made them favourites?

(1) Marwing Fever
(2) Backed on brothers reputation, rather than the horse flesh on the field.

Both of them had no form ?? If ever the odds on a second favourite was the best you would get at 5/1, it was that small first race.

Part of the puzzle is choosing the horse, the most important part is playing the odds. 4/10 gives a horse 60% chance of winning. I don't believe any horse ever started with 60% of winning a race.

i'm keeping an eye on Nkosenkhulu in race 7 looks to have scope and may prove better than rated -

Got a feeling that Airspace can run a place in race 3 at a big price.

place happy rituals

Jet lag.
Mr h, you got to give sounder advise. A win not a place. Well spotted, lad.

come racing tomorrow boys - we can piss into the wind off the balcony looking for the phantom tote board - that's if my Pa survives now!!! what a result!!