Delirious Nomad in the 5th looks to have a lively chance especially if repeating his last run to Canigao. In that race, Delirious Nomad was badly weighted compared to Canigao, so to finish 0.50 off was a good effort. It looks like this horse will appreciate the 1900m, his efforts over 1600m, he appeared to be running on late and in his last start over 1900m, he was gaining on the winner. That was against stronger company and he will be racing off the same weight against weaker company. I also feel he is better treated in terms of the race conditions compared to the favourite, Tanjiro. Both 3 year olds, Tanjiro is a 1 time winner carrying 60.0kgs whilst Delirious Nomad is a two time winner carrying 56.0kgs.
My punt for the day.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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Race 3 - Work Ethic, takes on a tough field and may find it hard but is back on her favourite surface again so we're hoping for a good run. She is working well. Qatar Springs, the company maybe a bit strong, so hoping the claim 4 helps and he can find the money.
Race 4 - Silverturnstogold, has has an interrupted prep, so lets see how he goes.
Race 9 - Street Boy, Hopeful for improvement.
I am torn between two horses in race 7: Royal Tree and Mission Rappids
Royal Tree with the 4kg claimer (pretty decent apprentice at that) should give a decent account of himself. He’s been running with more weight on its back against better opposition. Should be running on strongly today.
The other one I like is Mission rapids. Ignore the trainer/jockey combination at your peril. Last run was pretty decent.
I have a nagging feeling that if Sounds Positive is not in need of the run, then it will be right there at the finish.
Tough race with all horses showing long odds. Perhaps the forum can knuckle down with some discussion and find a winner here. At these odds, we could easily back 2 / 3 horses and still make a decent return.
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