Kenilworth Friday and Saturday

rob faux wrote:

fafi wrote:

MasterOfMyFate wrote: Whisky Baron, Horizon, Marinaresco. Write-ups later in the week.

Lets look at Marinarescos wins starting with
Tekkie 1600 take out Whisky Baron and what are you left with
Winter Classic looks like a rerun of the above
and the last one at Greyville has only produced one winner in Bezanova
Brazucas form is inconsistent but a line with him and then Noah both Legal Eagle and Abashiri has the beating of Marinaresco and because they were closer on their last i think a back to best Abashiri will be ahead of both of them

Maybe I'm smoking dope too but Marinaresco has still not PROVED he is as good as he is been touted ....not yet anyway.
The reminder is Bob's grade 1 thread.
Marinaresco got beaten in the Cape Derby ,at level weights by Wait My Turn and a very unlucky Brazuca. (and on a line through Brazuca ,Marinaresco is well held by Abashiri!)
He then won 2 legs of the winter series(averaging 1 lgth superiority over Whisky Baron,who has improved with gelding.)
He went to Durban and placed in the weakest July for years(Where Abashiri confirmed the superiority at level weights adjustment) and then beat Judicial! :huh:
He may well have improved past all those but he wouldn't be the first overrated hero on the forum!
His best advantage over the visitors is home ground!

I have been saying the same all the while, BUT ........ his last run in the Green Point imo showed that he is the real deal ..... I have backed both Marinaresco and Legal Eagle Ante-Post in the Met - those price surely can't last and will even be gone after the Queens Plate imo

Based on the green point run , legal eagle will never beat marinaresco again over 1600 and further , fill your boots all :woohoo:

Frodo wrote:

rob faux wrote:

fafi wrote:

MasterOfMyFate wrote: Whisky Baron, Horizon, Marinaresco. Write-ups later in the week.

Lets look at Marinarescos wins starting with
Tekkie 1600 take out Whisky Baron and what are you left with
Winter Classic looks like a rerun of the above
and the last one at Greyville has only produced one winner in Bezanova
Brazucas form is inconsistent but a line with him and then Noah both Legal Eagle and Abashiri has the beating of Marinaresco and because they were closer on their last i think a back to best Abashiri will be ahead of both of them

Maybe I'm smoking dope too but Marinaresco has still not PROVED he is as good as he is been touted ....not yet anyway.
The reminder is Bob's grade 1 thread.
Marinaresco got beaten in the Cape Derby ,at level weights by Wait My Turn and a very unlucky Brazuca. (and on a line through Brazuca ,Marinaresco is well held by Abashiri!)
He then won 2 legs of the winter series(averaging 1 lgth superiority over Whisky Baron,who has improved with gelding.)
He went to Durban and placed in the weakest July for years(Where Abashiri confirmed the superiority at level weights adjustment) and then beat Judicial! :huh:
He may well have improved past all those but he wouldn't be the first overrated hero on the forum!
His best advantage over the visitors is home ground!

I have been saying the same all the while, BUT ........ his last run in the Green Point imo showed that he is the real deal ..... I have backed both Marinaresco and Legal Eagle Ante-Post in the Met - those price surely can't last and will even be gone after the Queens Plate imo

This is what racing is all about for me-testing our theories and being paid on the odd occasion we are right-
I have watched the Green Point many times and It is hard to know which Legal Eagle that was -my opinion is that Marcus was taking it easy until he realized M was gaining ....he gave LE a squeeze and LE was going the better again at the death.....but that is just my opinion -I'm looking forward to seeing the puzzle resolved over the next 6 months as I am still not convinced that Jhb and cT horses produce their best in each other's backyards.
I have backed LE for both races but will still determine Who I Dutch him with in the Met!

Craig Pienaar wrote: Based on the green point run , legal eagle will never beat marinaresco again over 1600 and further , fill your boots all :woohoo:

I was of the opinion Legal Eagle toyed with the Green Point Field

Peninsula hdcp St Tropez Given a great chance by the handicappers
Weighted to win

rob faux wrote:

Frodo wrote:

rob faux wrote:

fafi wrote:

MasterOfMyFate wrote: Whisky Baron, Horizon, Marinaresco. Write-ups later in the week.

Lets look at Marinarescos wins starting with
Tekkie 1600 take out Whisky Baron and what are you left with
Winter Classic looks like a rerun of the above
and the last one at Greyville has only produced one winner in Bezanova
Brazucas form is inconsistent but a line with him and then Noah both Legal Eagle and Abashiri has the beating of Marinaresco and because they were closer on their last i think a back to best Abashiri will be ahead of both of them

Maybe I'm smoking dope too but Marinaresco has still not PROVED he is as good as he is been touted ....not yet anyway.
The reminder is Bob's grade 1 thread.
Marinaresco got beaten in the Cape Derby ,at level weights by Wait My Turn and a very unlucky Brazuca. (and on a line through Brazuca ,Marinaresco is well held by Abashiri!)
He then won 2 legs of the winter series(averaging 1 lgth superiority over Whisky Baron,who has improved with gelding.)
He went to Durban and placed in the weakest July for years(Where Abashiri confirmed the superiority at level weights adjustment) and then beat Judicial! :huh:
He may well have improved past all those but he wouldn't be the first overrated hero on the forum!
His best advantage over the visitors is home ground!

I have been saying the same all the while, BUT ........ his last run in the Green Point imo showed that he is the real deal ..... I have backed both Marinaresco and Legal Eagle Ante-Post in the Met - those price surely can't last and will even be gone after the Queens Plate imo

This is what racing is all about for me-testing our theories and being paid on the odd occasion we are right-
I have watched the Green Point many times and It is hard to know which Legal Eagle that was -my opinion is that Marcus was taking it easy until he realized M was gaining ....he gave LE a squeeze and LE was going the better again at the death.....but that is just my opinion -I'm looking forward to seeing the puzzle resolved over the next 6 months as I am still not convinced that Jhb and cT horses produce their best in each other's backyards.
I have backed LE for both races but will still determine Who I Dutch him with in the Met!

Imo in the Green Point, Legal Eagle hit the front too soon; although I did not watch the race again, my initial impression was that Marinaresco would have run past LE were the race 50 metres further - however that does not mean that M will automatically beat LE 'next time' - as I'm sure LE, in addition to racing perhaps too handy, will most likely also improve on that run; be that as it may, the fact remains that M beat a very good horse like Captain America easily going away - so that is why I say M has shown himself a top horse on that run - luck in running may well play it's part in both the QP and the MET

Some early thoughts for Friday:
Race 1: Of the Moon is the one to beat. We have Dark Goddess running- has an ew shout. Watch betting on the Nel first timer.
Race 2: Figaro and Mtoroshanga look the right two
Race 3:Margylle and Elusive Touch have good form. One More Round is on the upgrade and is a narrow selection.
Race 4: Candid has top weight and disappointed last time, but can make amends here. Very competitive race.
Race 5: I Travel Light drops in class and is a confident selection. Cape Fling is still unexposed and is the danger.
Race 6: We have Silvan Star running and despite her wide draw she is a big runner. This race is wide open.
Race 7: Carry on Alice should have cone on from her last run, and is selected to win. Royal Princess will prefer this 1200m and is the main danger. Scandal won't be far off.
Race 8: Al Wahed appeals with the 4kg claimer. Hereford gets a senior jockey for the first time and should be a factor.

Early thoughts for Saturday:
Race 1: Cherry Bliss to pip the onslaught of Snaith runners.
Race 2: On these big days, expect some smart first timers. We have Romantic Crusade running. Good debut and she and Lacerta are the ones to beat that have raced.
Race 3: Oh Behave to beat Union Jack
Race 4: Whisky Baron needs to win this well to justify his place in the Met, and he is a banker despite this being a handicap. MacDuff and St Tropez to follow him home.
Race 5: Horizon another banker. Danger is Newlands.
Race 6: Bela Bela is the best of the older fillies. Safe Harbour has the best 3yo form. We have Final Judgement running- she had no luck in the Fillies Guineas and we expect a good run from her. A strong field this year with lots of depth.
Race 7: Legal Eagle remains the best miler in the country and I expect him to win. Marinaresco is still improving and is the main danger. Captain America is always a threat over a mile.
Race 8: Royal Badge enjoyed the step up in trip last time and could win again if enjoying the extra.
Race 9: She's a Giver is slung in at the weights here.
Race 10: Elusive Path is the one to beat.

Race 9 She's aGiver
Distance is right, got the speed at altitude,learnt the turn last time out and the weight. JJVV usually makes name on these big days, his only runner!

On the main race I'm with PeterD on this, Legal Eagle may be suspicious over 2000 meters and he may have a youngster Marinaresco or Whiskey Baron running past him at the line, but he will be strong over 1800 meters. The way Marcus rides him is always one length off the front, he will kick for home at the 200 meter mark and will always have first run and ground advantage on Marinaresco.... So as always it will look like rest are going to catch him but in truth he is home and hosed.... In the last start Marinresco got close but was never going to go past....

I'll wait for the money to pile on to Marinaresco and may hopefully get 16/10 on Legal Eagle at the start.

Also keep in mind, Marcus will have a rails run with the draw and will be positioned without any effort at all, Marinaresco will have o come from around and that will also play into The genius Anton Marcus hands and timing...

LE is still the one to beat and although Marineresco is definitely the real deal, and a horse that really does want to win, he still has a bit to prove . He was really trying in the Green point and his supporters were trying to point out afterwards what went wrong but at the death LE kicked again and Marineresco just didn't have enough. Pace will make a difference for the top contenders but odds are more in LE favour on Saturday because he doesn't need to rely on a burst at the right time, and is capable of taking the race into his own hands if necessary.

This time last year LE was not being thought of as a miler ,but as a 2000-2400m horse and only lost the Met because of a freakishly impressive run (on all previous form) , by Smart Call. I think that win or lose in the queens plate LE will still be the one to beat in the Met.

Usually,I think its foolish to discuss BIG RACES days before the time,as this is where MOST get it wrong!!! Sure we can study the form,ponder our thoughts and have a guess...but saying down outright that THIS and THAT will win is just crazy...

Reason being is quite simple...Before a race is even run and BEFORE WE EVEN CONSIDEF LOOKING AT FORM...there are 2 MAJOR points to look out for which DIRECTLY decides whom the winners will be on that day....

1- Conditions on the day(track,rain,wind,ect?)
2- PACE of the race(this is easy as we can calculate this beforehand)

But,since I normally enjoy these kinds of debates,and I LOVE reading the debates on here,let me,just for a second join in aswell.

Considering track and everything is good...

Pace of the race??? There is non at the moment...its non existent of a pacemaker...even if SAIL SOUTH leads again,I doubt he'll set a fast pace as stablemate doesn't too do well over a fast pace over this CD....so this will be either...

A- slow run race
B- a crawl

Both those scenarios...I can't see M beating LE from the position he will be in(last or 2nd last at turn) Although he is an improving sort,only so much can be done when things don't go your way!!!!

So who do I think will run 2nd...

The CONGLOMERATE...

Striker knows him very well,and the 3* he has rode him,from very bad draws he always went for a handy position just of the leading trio...tomorrow will be no different,I think he will track Marcus! Thus staying on strongly for 2nd!!!!

Marinesco will rattle home...running either 3rd or 4th...

2 jokers of the pack....

FRENCH NAVY

1 of my fav horses with a blistering tof...will be finishing strongly and places on this 1 for the Met looks attractive!!!!

BOLD REX

Since when do we disregard an Mdk nag so easily??? But I don't just like him coz he is an Mdk nag,but becoz he ran a cracker on his last run,may be 'out at the weights' but conditions of the race will favour him,jockey engagement a concern for me thou.

So Marcus will doddle this,with The Cong putting up a decent 2nd!!!!

Let's race!!!!