Karma wrote: Bela to come home smoking a fattie imo.
at the same time last year Bela was a 98 - Safe Harbour is a 108 so on pure ratings SH is a better filly than Bela was this time last year - my only concern is that she may have raced too much but i'm sure Tarry would not have taken a chance if she was not 100%
The 3yo fillies of 2014/15 were exceptional, and they won all the open F&M gr 1 races that year, beating their elders. In 2015/16, the Bela Bela generation could not win any open F&M gr 1 races because the likes of Inara, Smart Call etc were still around. In my opinion an average to slightly below average crop of 3yo fillies last season.
This year's crop look to be at least average, and maybe a bit better than average. There is quite a bit of depth, although the 2yo form has worked out a bit patchily this season.
I expect, therefor that at least some of the F&M gr 1s will be won by the 3yo fillies this year.
(A complication for the Cape season, is the impact of the CTS $m races which will weaken the Derby, Majorca and even the Met with all of Safe Harbour, Just Sensual and W Longsword to name but a few of the most promising who will be chasing the big bucks on Met day).
The Paddock Stakes is the first head to head battle at the highest level for the 3 & 4 yr old girls.
4yo Bela-Bela and Silver Mountain are gr 1 winners, Nightingale is gr1 placed.
There are no Gr 1 winning 3yos in the race, although Safe Harbour is a narrow 2nd at Gr1 level, Sail is Gr1 placed and Final Judgement is a gr 2 winner of a race that was previously a gr. 1.
The official MRs have BB a 107 and Sh a 108; the Sporting Post Ability ratings are slightly different, with BB at 104 and SH at 99.
None of the 3 yo's have gone further than 1600m, although there is every reason to believe that all 4 entered will see out the trip.
All the principal 4 yo's are proven over the trip except Silver Mountain and on breeding she should get it. There is only a couple of lengths between BB, Nightingale and Silver Mountain.
On exposed form, Bela-Bela has a slight edge, but the 3 year olds are at the stage of their careers when they can improve rapidly.
My conclusion is that Bela-Bela deserves to be favorite, but her price is too skinny for me and I think that the better value lies in the younger fillies.
Safe Harbour is the obvious favorite amongst the younger fillies, but both FJ and Sail had valid excuses in the Fillies Guineas and could well have gone much closer had things gone their way.
I have backed Final Judgement at 50/1;40/1 and 33/1 today.
Nightingale is good value at the current 20/1.
For pick 6 I will go Bela-Bela;Nightingale; Silver Mountain, Safe Harbour and Final Judgement.
The Queens Plate has had a few upsets in recent years, with only Variety Club justifying favourtism in the past 5 years. Over a longer period, favourites have an excellent record, and only very good horses win this race, and few winners are in double figure odds.
Legal Eagle is the reigning horse of the year and also last years winner. His run in the Green Point showed that he is ready for this and has lost none of his spark. A worthy favourite and my selection to win, but not much value at 7/10.
Marinaresco is a year younger and still improving and it would be no great shock if he were to win. 17/10 is not too exciting either.
French Navy is a tough campaigner, and has never been far off his stable companion in ability. He seems a bit better over further and while he could surprise, I think he could place at best.
Captain America is a top miler and although he is now 6, has not lost his zest for racing. If the race plays into his hands regarding pace and position, he could upset and 20/1 would not be a stupid bet.
Abashiri looked awful in the Green Point, and trainer Azzie has given a belated explanation of his poor travel and prep for that race. It would have been nice if he had spoken up a bit earlier!
His wins in the Triple Crown were commanding until just lasting the testing 2450m. His task at the weights in the July was impossible, but it is worth noting that he ran a better race at the weights than any of the horses in front of him, and most noticeably, ahead of Marinaresco on ratings.
He can thus be expected to run a much better race here, but whether he has had enough time to get back to best is a question, and he would need to be at his very best to win.
While it is possible for one of the other 5 older horses to sneak into the frame, I think that it is unlikely.
Bold Rex represents the 3yo's and he seems a speculative entry as he is not the best of the 3yo colts, and thus would be a major surprise. However, if he runs within 4 or 5 lengths of the winner, then that would be a boost for the chances of the top 3year olds in the Met itself.
For my pick 6 I will just put in the top two, but a cover jackpot including French Navy and Capt America appeals to me.
Hello Clanners!
Pick 6: 2/ 1.2.4.5.6.7.10/ 1.9/ 1.3.9/ F/ F......R350 for around 10%
In or out 1st leg, Whiskey Baron for me, despite the weight should be good enough. If Marinaresco was in Race 4 it would be no race, so Whiskey Baron should be the likely winner and an exotic banker.
Horizon, hasn't showed enough to be a banker, can romp home, but I think the betting market is a reflection of it's price tag rather than it's ability.
Bella Bella should win, the only danger I make is Safe Harbour. Two horse race for me.
In the Queen's Plate, im sure will see a similar finish like the Greenpoint stakes, Midnite Zone my value bet!
Went fields in the last 2 legs in the p6 so will know my fate early. GLIYF
I would still add in its my turn..and mambo but that jockey is a turn off..and the stable is not firing..so whiskey baron will have to turn it up..newlands ran in stronger form races, tarry also think French navy is in wirh a big shout..but it sud be a jooste doubles..
Truly believe Marinaresco is going to surprise many today irrespective of the pace they go at today. A bad draw is a bad draw, but the size of the field is relatively small and that is the key. Still believe Marinaresco got too far behind Legal Eagle/the leading pack last time out, today if turning for home somewhat closer ....
odds for the big one halved.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
Question to PeterD - how do you see the pace in the Paddock Stakes (will your filly be sitting handy) and the QP - because imo pace and position are going to decide those races ..... also regarding your filly, you would know more of course, but imo there must be some doubt about the 1800 - especially if she is going to follow her usual racing style of sitting handy?
