The Vaal Tuesday

Enjoy

Race 1: What has raced is so poor, that any debutante in the field should beat them. Here I am going to Include Hallucination as a debutante for the new stable – watch the market – in any event not advisable to wager on work rider races

Race 2: La Roquette is being asked to show substantial improvement here. Her rather moderate win over osculation looks the more impressive at 3.00 lengths, but that was on yielding ground and introduces enough doubt to belie the 5/2 on offer. Indeed she may pass the test and prove to be quite useful -but at 5/2 I think my pocket would be better served by the 7/1 on offer about Levi Lady. I am not buying the market’s suggestion that all is not well with her – if she’s that poorly off she shouldn’t be allowed to run. Spring Wonder and GimmetheMoney are obvious money chances – so It’s a gamble between Levi Lady and La Roquette

Race 3: Queen Anne looks the strongest of those with exposure, but remains a weak proposition – opening the door for anything average or better. San Fermin then looks the best proposition, Ninjara should be a contestant

Race 4: I am expecting a big run from Toro Rosso. He will it have it all to do to beat Arctica but it’s possible. Arctica and Kings Archer the usual dangers. Cannot completely discount Just As I said – although my feeling is that one suited to shorter.

Race 5: Potentially a match race – we haven’t seen the best of Goodytwoshoes, neither Only To Win. I would favour the three year old, especially at the weights- but three impressive wins off different trips for the older mare must be respected. For value players we would wager on Our Miracle to upset them both, coming down just a little in class off her last two..

Race 6: Last Girl Standing to repeat – although technically – Seeking Venus has enough weight advantage to get to her – I think class beats weight Goodness Me and Open road to follow those two home.

Race 7: Jubilee Line should be a safe banker here -- no value.

Race 8: Polar Vortex – brother to Captain Splendid, from a dam that will ensure he stays this trip is certainly expetced to go well here. watch for any market support on Arabian World since that's about the only one I reckon could beat him here. Champions Cup and Skynight should make him work hard.

Hmm...Arabian World already into 5/1 from 10/1

And sorry about that - Polar Vortex half brother to captain splendid on the Dam's side -- but it certainly looks like captain splendid got his ability from the dam.

On the note of pace:

If the pace isn't true Jubilee Line could be undone to the advantage of HIERONYMUS ch.g 4y 2013 and STUNNED ch.g 4y 2013.

Race 2 - Outlander 10/1.

Not really a card that inspires me all that much and thus not one to get heavily involved in.

R2 7/1 the field and if anything is a bit of value I think Jameson girl at 3's may be worthnchancing.

R3 but for the draws both Moffatt runners need inclusion but I won't touch due to the draws (although last week there didn't seem to be too big of a draw bias and the track is setup exactly the same as last week ito false rail etc)

R4 Azzie has a strong hand Street flyer may be the value if it drifts a little but again a no bet race for me.

R5 Value lies with Beautiful Shay for me if this run doesn't come too soon. May be worth following the Moffatt runners in race 3 and monitor their progress or if ballsy maybe double onto BS e/w.

R6 Tricky yet again if pushed I'd go swingers open road and Martha's Vineyard.

R7 Jubilee line looks a shoe in but not the most reliable so St John Gray's runners worth including.

R8 Yet again a tough race with Azzie having a strong hand. Many needed in this leg. One I feel may be of place value for a top 4 is watch my dust. Seems to take a while to unwind as can be seen with poor runs on the tight inside track. Best runs have been on this course and maybe one worth including in quartets at a large price.

Beautiful Shay scratched

Despite my current form, I am rather bullish about this card ....

R1: Tammany Hall a stand out on form, but the de Kock debutante could make her run, many of her siblings have proven effective over 1400, so all things considered, TH should have the edge; Quinine and Hallucination to fight out 3rd on form - possible improver to include in the quartet is Orinoco Rock with Mosia up

R2: Tough little field, but Jameson Girl stands out imo - fluffed her lines last time out, but she comfortably beat both Spring Wonder and Lady Starlett previously and is now much better off at the weights; La Roquette a bit of an unknown quantity, but if she runs according to her price tag, should beat these easily

R3: Kitty Pride comes out of a strong formline behind Rockin Russian, but even if not needing the run (as per the stable comments), I think Ninjara will have her measure - ran on really well in her debut over 1200 (22.1 secs for the last 400 if the Computaform is to be believed) and the stable always very competitive at this track; Wrap it Up could be a bit of a lurker from an in-form stable but needs improvement with Wind of Charne; Boudica has been bleeding, so Queen Anne and Kick Butt best of the rest imo

R4: Competitive handicap, complicated by many of the runners probably gearing up for the Grand Heritage, so all the runners in the betting need inclusion imo, as well as Morpheus who can upset at best

R5: Interesting fillies and mares handicap, where I prefer the 2 younger fillies Strawberry Pavlova and Only to Win; SP has shown in her last run that her rating is spot on, while OtW beat a weak maiden field in a canter and has run close to Desert Rhythm and was pipped by Neptune's Rain - she gets a kg from SP, so that could give her the edge; Goodytwoshoes has gone up from a 50 to 67 in her last 4 runs - imo will have her work cut out to beat the two younger fillies and could fight out third with At a Glance

R6: I fancy Open Road - 3rd run after a rest and has come down to a very competitive rating imo, also should hold Bally Swiss and Last Girl Standing on form; biggest danger is Martha's Vineyard, who should also hold LGS easily on their runs behind Ponchielli

R7: Jubilee Line the obvious one, the worry is that he is drifting in the betting If he needs the run too much, any of Dawn Assault, Stunned or Hieronymous can take advantage; Hot Curry imo needs improvement on exposed form to feature

R8: Competitive staying handicap to close; many runners closely matched and shortlist include both the Azzie runners, Arabian World, Gentleman Only and Eastern Pearl; next best for me is Polar Vortex and the roughie Sebastian, who on my ratings ran about 6 points above his official rating last time

Enjoy

Race 1 - PENNY FROM HEAVEN
Race 3 - QUEEN ANNE
Race 4 - TRADING PROFIT
Race 5 - ONLY TO WIN
Race 7 - DAWN ASSAULT

Wings of Charne in the third should prefer the extra today.