WHAT'S YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF VALUE?

To understand value , you must price up your own races

Even if you make errors , the value is yours no one else’s

If you then think a horse is worth a bet at 15/10 and it opens 5/2 you take the price(you have your value)

If the horse opened 9/10 there is no value in your eyes

An an improving form studier any wrong priced runner is value to me. I only play big on place bets, I wish I had balls to play win bets though.

Value is a horse for which the odds on offer discount it's claim to win - for instance Top Rated horse going off at odds of 10/1. Since it's the top rated horse in the field , 10/1 is unlikely to be it's true odds.

Karma wrote: Imo,Dave hit it on the head..... any winning bet is value... what is the difference between backing a 5/10 loser opposed to a 20/1 loser... any winning profitable bet is value..

I would guess that what most people mean when they say the "value bet" for the day is, is when they expected the horse (for example) to be 3/1, but it is actually 5/1, granting them 2/1 greater odds than expected...

Disagree. A winning bet is a good bet, not necessarily a value bet.

Example: Crystal Palace beat Chelsea today in the EPL. Would you be happy if CP were even money to beat Chelsea, and you fancied them to do it? Yes, you would be happy with the winning bet if you took it, but the reward versus the risk would not be worth it because the probability of it happening was much lower.

Bob, Bob, Bob (100% correct), very subjective, but i think you're more right than wrong.

Today, Adam proved the point with Tapenzee in race 4, my comment in my book (to myself) was, "not on exposed form".

But let's keep going with the various opinions, we can hopefully decide what to do when playing a multiple versus an on the head punt, and trying to work out the value e.g. banker or leave the ante-post favourite out.

Getting back to Bob's opinion, is your fancy bigger or shorter than it actually is - that's where the true value lies?

Lionel wrote:

Karma wrote: Imo,Dave hit it on the head..... any winning bet is value... what is the difference between backing a 5/10 loser opposed to a 20/1 loser... any winning profitable bet is value..

I would guess that what most people mean when they say the "value bet" for the day is, is when they expected the horse (for example) to be 3/1, but it is actually 5/1, granting them 2/1 greater odds than expected...

Disagree. A winning bet is a good bet, not necessarily a value bet.

Example: Crystal Palace beat Chelsea today in the EPL. Would you be happy if CP were even money to beat Chelsea, and you fancied them to do it? Yes, you would be happy with the winning bet if you took it, but the reward versus the risk would not be worth it because the probability of it happening was much lower.

Yes, but like in horse racing, in sports upsets happen.. hence I say a winning bet is a value bet.. yes Palace beat Chelsea, and yes atleast 4, 5/10 shots got beat in racing this week , however it is finding the ones that win, at whatever price it is what I am trying to say is the value, immaterial of the price... It is always great to find the 20/1 + winners, but they dont come often...... very often the 8/10 - even money plays are value. Its all about finding the right ones.... who cares if its a win, place, multiple, draw etc, a win is a win...

Apple CEO Tim Cook is claiming that the $1000 iPhone X is a good value. Cook said, “It’s the last phone you’ll ever need for the next eight months."
- Conan O'Brien, September 20, 2017

Value is critical and definitely a factor in betting.

So Bookmaker A has 5/2
Bookmaker B has 11/4 already there is more value with bookmaker B.

Cash management is vital to any business and punting is a business. You don't stop at 0 on a losing day, intact you go -. So again value comes into it. I would rather be -200 than -201 (if I'm going to be - at all)

The actual price of the proposition is irrelevant because value can be obtained or not at any price.

For me therefore value comes in comparing 5/10 with another 5/10 not with a 20/1 shot and 1 of 2 things

do i think the 5/10 should be 1/3 and therefore represents value
or
can i get 7/10 for the 5/10 shot and gain value that way.

The latter is the toughest one to explain to novices. Ill try.

If i can get 11/10 for the rest of my life for heads in a coin spin then ill take it. Okay i might die one day behind on the bet BUT that matters not because i got value along the way.

thats the way i see it.

To find value,you would require formgrids. (Hint hint)

If you select a horse that you think should be evens,and 3/1 is available, that is value in my opinion.

jpsa wrote: To find value,you would require formgrids. (Hint hint)

If you select a horse that you think should be evens,and 3/1 is available, that is value in my opinion.

I am back, to me value is only if something wins or if you have something valuable.
In the case of a pair of shoes priced at R1000 and you purchase them for R500 you feel you have at least something of value

As far as betting and using the above example " the horse can lose "
So lets say you took 1000/330 instead of 1000/1000
Do you feel you saved 670 or lost 330

Like Bob, value to me is perceived i.e. the difference between your price and the market price.

If you think the horse is worth 5/10 and goes off evens then that it "perceived" value and possibly no-one else's. Vice versa, if you think the horse is worth 100/1 and goes off 10/1 then there is no "perceived" value.

Conversely, if you think a motor car is worth R100k but is being sold for R120k then there is no "perceived" value.

Or, the finance media constantly go on about value to be had with Steinhoff shares because the columnists think it is worth R80/share and not R60/share.

Do you think there is value in the Bitcoin price? Some say the price will implode but others say R10,000 in six months time.

What price do you think AGENCEFRANCEPRESSE should be today?

Everyone is applying value all the time.

If you really think your selection is going to win, then what happens is every price offered looks like a bargain to you. Even as it shortens you can't believe they didn't shorten it more.

At the same time the outsider in that race goes from 33/1 to 66/1 to 100/1 and you see no value there. In fact the drift confirms to what a piece so shit that is and confirms the value you see on your 6/10 shot, now trading at 5/10.

That result.

The result has nothing to do with value. You win, or lose. The value comes in after you have done this time and again. If you are almost always wrong, you have miscalculated the strength of these "good" things and you are showing a significant loss (at say 10k a time to make the point).

If you wait, and you are selective and manage to avoid some bad " good" things, you tend to win, then we have established the value.

To finish the point regarding the result/value, even if you more or less break even, the value is in having a shot at a profit, having the excitement of the bet, and still not losing much.

So if I get a tip from my knowledgeable workrider friend who is right fairly often, and any price is value. The value comes from me keeping a rough score of how I'm going. And if the same guy keeps tipping 20/1 shots that never even place, I just press delete because there is no value.