WHAT'S YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF VALUE?

Interesting perspective from everyone in this discussion.

I would like to make a different point regarding value specifically as it relates to expanding the sport.

Value could also be expressed as entertainment/price, in other words value for money. In this instance even a losing bet could have value as long as the entertainment value was greater than similar money spent on alternative entertainment.

This is in fact the key to promoting racing to a new audience showing better value than other forms of entertainment or other forms of gambling and as long as it also offers the potential to win big or more regularly.

So what would be better value, a P6, Bi-pot, PA, JP or single race betting product. They all differ in terms of potential reward, difficulty to win and outlay required to win big.

The above also suggests that value would be different things to different people on different days. it's in the eye of the beholder and has no universal definition that will suit everyone.

lets put up R4 Vaal betting

Surcharge 7/2 15/20
Keanan`s Rock 4/1 9/10
Sir David Baird 4/1 9/10
Tokyo Drift 6/1 33/25
Blackball 8/1 44/25
Bold Coast 9/1 99/50
Lucky Man 11/1 121/50
Twice A Dancer 11/1 121/50
Chepardo 14/1 31/10
Golden Man 16/1 88/25
Rambo25/1 11/2

we have posted our theories on value so why not combine our analysing and the quest for value in this practical.
It's an interesting race but tbh not expecting any positive feedback although any would be really great

nb ;let's stay away from making comments regarding percentages (if its an issue in this eg)

Been mentioned by Bob and a few others. If you feel a horse should be 2/1 and 3/1 is on offer then there is surely value. The price IMO is irrelevant, if you make horse a 4/10 shot and it is 6/10 then there is value there.

With several bookies opening up early there is plenty of "value" to be had if you shop around.

mydada

IMO there is zero value in attempting a bet in that race.

easy wrote: mydada

IMO there is zero value in attempting a bet in that race.

even if FG was available i would have to agree and with retrospect probably the reason i posted
But if you compulsive or an exotic player you got to deal with it!

if you compulsive then value is irrelevant and means nothing. i bet almost everyday but don't buy scratch cards or pump money into a machine that up front tells me its set to 30/70

Although I agree with most on here regarding finding value by pricing up yourself or finding a bookmaker that has better odds than others, I find that taking the value out of the punt like Dave said is more beneficial.

I back to win. If it loses, what difference does it make if i got 4/1 or 5/1. Price makes no difference when I punt. I don't punt to win X, but rather punt a set amount regardless of price. Of course there are instances where I break the rule because I am a gambler, but effectively I choose a horse I believe can win and punt it for either my minimum, average or big stake depending on how i feel it will do in the race.

Richie

in theory you are correct but the problem comes with the following: cash flow

so yes of course it matters not if you lose because you get zero

but if you win and you get value it might go a bit extra towards a losing streak.

then there is my coin example.

Its well known casinos make millions BUT you will never find a casino offering you 40/1 on a number in Roulette. Some people (gamblers) would not even figure out that you could bet the field and show a profit. Some would still ONLY back 1 number because they were getting value. Its a silly example because of course you would bet the field but from a math pint of view backing 1 number is the perfect bet because you getting value.

A Minimum of 3/10 or 4/10 a place (4 places)

Thats value for me, No bank will give you those rates.

jpsa wrote: To find value,you would require formgrids. (Hint hint)

If you select a horse that you think should be evens,and 3/1 is available, that is value in my opinion.

I think that's a very good reply. If you can get higher odds than your own/ or the true calculated probability - you have value, and without value you'll never win in horse racing over the long term.

I cannot recall who, but a very poignant point was raised on this forum by a poster who stated that in his opinion backing anything less than 5/1 was not sustainable.

It is exactly the point of value , that will determine if you can viably get ahead. the odds offered to you by a bookmaker, are by nature 20% to 30% lower than the true probability - if not bookmakers would not profit.

You are then taking odds on every bet that are below the true calculated probability - hence those posters here who advocate finding a bookie who offers higher points than another can lead to value - in this scenario you would be wagering closer to the true probability with the 2nd bookmaker.

If you managed to get odds equal to the true probability on every bet, all you would ever achieve is to break even. Therefore wagering above the true probability is critical to making a profit on the races.

Generally the betting public is pretty good at establishing the true probability of a runner, and then with taxes and book maker profit most runners will be priced up about 20% below the true probability established by the betting public.

Value arises when the betting public underestimate the winning chances of a runner - because it's rested, it's a first timer, it's drunk most of the time, it's trying a different trip , a different surface, carrying a big weight, has an apprentice up...et al...anything that introduces doubt or masks the winning chances of a runner - being alert to these angles that mislead the betting public, will often point you to true value about a runner.....

I don't agree with this, but thought some of you may find it interesting... :blink:

The Concept Of Value

Regardless of how good your betting skills are and how well you know your horse racing, you simply will not win all of your bets. You may well have times when you go on a hot streak and pick a lot of winners but equally you may well have times when you go on a cold streak and nothing works out for you. Over a prolonged period of time the chances are, at best, that you win a slightly higher percentage of your wagers than you lose.

In some respects it doesn’t even matter too much what your ratio of wins to losses is. Indeed it’s possible to make money from horse racing betting even if you lose more wagers than you win. If you generally back outsiders at fairly high odds, for example, then one win every few bets could still turn you a healthy profit. Of course if you’re mostly betting on low priced favorites then you’ll need a higher win ratio. The main point, though, is that it’s ultimately about how much money you win and not how many bets you win.

The key to successful horse racing betting is in understanding the concept of value and knowing how to find good value bets.

The concept of value in horse racing betting, or any form of gambling for that matter, is something that a lot of people either overlook or just don’t understand. And yet value is arguably the single most important thing in betting. A lot of people make the incorrect assumption that simply getting high odds represents value and getting low odds means poor value. This is really not the case.

In a betting sense, value is essentially about the odds of a wager compared to the actual likelihood of that wager winning. Take, for example, a horse with odds of 10/1 (11.00 in decimal odds, +1000 in moneyline odds). Many people would think 10/1 is great value – after all you win $100 from a stake of just $10. However, if the horse is a complete no hoper and only really stands about a one in 20 chance of winning the race then there’s no value at all in backing it.

Now imagine there is a horse in the same race that has odds of just even money (2.00 in decimal odds, +100 in moneyline odds). A wager of $10 on this horse would “only” win you $10, but if the horse is far and away the best in the race and likely to win nine out ten times then this is actually an excellent wager. Theoretically if the race was run ten times you would win $10 nine times and lose $10 just once.

Basically, odds by themselves do not represent either good value or bad value. You have to take into consideration how likely a wager is to win. It’s perfectly possible to make money out of betting mostly on low priced favorites and it’s perfectly possible to make money out of betting mostly on high priced outsiders. If you take value into account every time you make a wager then you stand an excellent chance of making money out of your betting.

Of course the difficulty comes in assessing the value of a particular wager. This is not an exact science by any means and it comes down to a matter of opinion really. If you have a decent knowledge of horse racing though and put some time into studying form and looking at relevant statistics then you should be able to make well informed judgments on where the value lies.

Managing Your Money

Understanding value and being able to find value bets is not necessarily enough in itself. You also need to manage your money properly. This is a very important skill and one that any successful gambler needs to have. You would be amazed at how many people lose money not through any lack of knowledge or ability to find value, but simply through not managing their betting bankroll.

If you have a decent system for your bankroll management and the discipline to stick to that system then you will dramatically improve your chances of being a long term winner.

There’s no single correct way to manage your money but there are certain guidelines you should try to adhere to. Ideally you should have a sum of money that you allocate to your betting and keep separate from all your other money. You should then have some rules in place about how much and how often you can add to your bankroll if required, and how often you will take a percentage of your profits out of your bankroll.

With your bankroll in place you then need to decide what percentage of your bankroll you want to bet as your standard stake. This can be anything you like really, depending on your attitude to risk, but 1% or 2% is probably best. It certainly doesn’t want to be over 5%. Whatever percentage you decide on, make sure that you stick to it and don’t start increasing your stakes to chase losses.

By betting with a fixed percentage of your bankroll every time, you should be able to ride out any runs of bad luck and still have funds remaining to try and turn things around. If you stake just 1% of your bankroll every time you bet then you would need to go on an incredible losing streak to lose it all. If that happened then you might have to think that betting is not really for you anyway.

A Tip For Extra Value

There’s one very easy way that you can help yourself maximize the value you get out of your horse racing betting. That is to place your wagers online with a horse racing betting site. Most sites will give you bonuses when you first sign up and many of them also give you additional rewards if you keep betting with them regularly. These bonuses and rewards are great for boosting your bankroll and represent extra value just for depositing and placing your chosen wagers.