July log

pirates wrote:

Richie77 wrote: With Liege winning the summer cup, he gets automatic entry and if coral fever top weighted he will run off a mark of 56. A great mark for a 40-1 shot imo. My question though is does Liege need to run another race before the July in order to participate as I see he isn’t in the jubilee.

He doesnt get automatic entry into the july he gets preferential treatment ..He will have to show his wellbeing as the gold circle 150 days barrier trial ruling which as i found with strathdon is another ruling that can be bent when it suits...my 2 cents worth is that leige wont run in the july

Liege has accepted to run in the Gold Challenge with Hewiston up. Next to it on Sahorseracing there is a question mark with regards to no barrier trial.

With what is left of the field and currently carrying 55 kg's (if Coral Fever runs), IMO anything over 2/1 on ANS is a gift.

shrek wrote: With what is left of the field and currently carrying 55 kg's (if Coral Fever runs), IMO anything over 2/1 on ANS is a gift.

What is your reasoning, Sir?

I have no preference at the moment so asking from an educational standpoint

Bokked wrote:

shrek wrote: With what is left of the field and currently carrying 55 kg's (if Coral Fever runs), IMO anything over 2/1 on ANS is a gift.

What is your reasoning, Sir?

I have no preference at the moment so asking from an educational standpoint

He ran about 14 to 15 points above his rating in the Met but never got a penalty as he finished 6th. His comeback run was excellent and by not winning did not incur a penalty. He will at the moment carry 55 kgs, 4,5 kgs less than the Met and this field is not in the same league as that of the Met. He will carry more or less the same as the top 3 year old colts and receive weight from the top older horses.

His Cup Trial run will be interesting as it is a MR race if he wins will get a penalty.

shrek wrote:

Bokked wrote:

shrek wrote: With what is left of the field and currently carrying 55 kg's (if Coral Fever runs), IMO anything over 2/1 on ANS is a gift.

What is your reasoning, Sir?

I have no preference at the moment so asking from an educational standpoint

He ran about 14 to 15 points above his rating in the Met but never got a penalty as he finished 6th. His comeback run was excellent and by not winning did not incur a penalty. He will at the moment carry 55 kgs, 4,5 kgs less than the Met and this field is not in the same league as that of the Met. He will carry more or less the same as the top 3 year old colts and receive weight from the top older horses.

His Cup Trial run will be interesting as it is a MR race if he wins will get a penalty.

Shrek - on a line through coral fever I have liege and ANS finishing on top of each other. Hence why I think the 40/1 (now 35/1) is value. I am also in the camp of ANS and already clicked a few doubles. Let me know if my handicapping is wrong please.

If liege is allowed to run on saturday i expect all other owners and trainers to tell gold circle to take barrier trials and stick them up their backsides .

shrek wrote:

Bokked wrote:

shrek wrote: With what is left of the field and currently carrying 55 kg's (if Coral Fever runs), IMO anything over 2/1 on ANS is a gift.

What is your reasoning, Sir?

I have no preference at the moment so asking from an educational standpoint

He ran about 14 to 15 points above his rating in the Met but never got a penalty as he finished 6th. His comeback run was excellent and by not winning did not incur a penalty. He will at the moment carry 55 kgs, 4,5 kgs less than the Met and this field is not in the same league as that of the Met. He will carry more or less the same as the top 3 year old colts and receive weight from the top older horses.

His Cup Trial run will be interesting as it is a MR race if he wins will get a penalty.

Therefore good thing for Trial?
18/10
what would your double be 9 june ?

pirates wrote: If liege is allowed to run on saturday i expect all other owners and trainers to tell gold circle to take barrier trials and stick them up their backsides .

Although I think barrier trials are the biggest waste of time, why is there no barrier trial at Scottsville on Wednesday? Tarry could just send Liege round the trip at a canter.

Richie77 wrote:

shrek wrote:

Bokked wrote:

shrek wrote: With what is left of the field and currently carrying 55 kg's (if Coral Fever runs), IMO anything over 2/1 on ANS is a gift.

What is your reasoning, Sir?

I have no preference at the moment so asking from an educational standpoint

He ran about 14 to 15 points above his rating in the Met but never got a penalty as he finished 6th. His comeback run was excellent and by not winning did not incur a penalty. He will at the moment carry 55 kgs, 4,5 kgs less than the Met and this field is not in the same league as that of the Met. He will carry more or less the same as the top 3 year old colts and receive weight from the top older horses.

His Cup Trial run will be interesting as it is a MR race if he wins will get a penalty.

Shrek - on a line through coral fever I have liege and ANS finishing on top of each other. Hence why I think the 40/1 (now 35/1) is value. I am also in the camp of ANS and already clicked a few doubles. Let me know if my handicapping is wrong please.

Which 'line through Coral Fever' ? I may be way off base, but I don't fancy Liege (and I also think he is an unlikely runner in the July); Tarry's hope for the July imo is Social Order - should be running in the Jubilee and on a line through Coral Fever in the Colorado King, will be very well handicapped if making the July final field - so 70/1 real big value imo

Not sure what the Snaiths are planning for Strathdon, but surely if they want to run Made to Conquer, Strathdon must have a chance as well .... and currently a big discrepancy on the odds of those two ....

But imo they are all chasing shadows, African Night Sky (even if winning the Cup Trial) is so well in, that only luck in running can beat him - and I'm very happy I took the 8/1 a couple of weeks ago ...

Richie77 wrote:

shrek wrote:

Bokked wrote:

shrek wrote: With what is left of the field and currently carrying 55 kg's (if Coral Fever runs), IMO anything over 2/1 on ANS is a gift.

What is your reasoning, Sir?

I have no preference at the moment so asking from an educational standpoint

He ran about 14 to 15 points above his rating in the Met but never got a penalty as he finished 6th. His comeback run was excellent and by not winning did not incur a penalty. He will at the moment carry 55 kgs, 4,5 kgs less than the Met and this field is not in the same league as that of the Met. He will carry more or less the same as the top 3 year old colts and receive weight from the top older horses.

His Cup Trial run will be interesting as it is a MR race if he wins will get a penalty.

Shrek - on a line through coral fever I have liege and ANS finishing on top of each other. Hence why I think the 40/1 (now 35/1) is value. I am also in the camp of ANS and already clicked a few doubles. Let me know if my handicapping is wrong please.

Richie your handicapping is spot on, just both races were run in very different conditions.

Will be interesting to see if Gold Circle allow Liege to run on Saturday, if they do they might as well make barrier trials voluntary from now on as they will never be able to enforce it going forward.

What went wrong with Cascapedia last run?

oscar wrote: What went wrong with Cascapedia last run?

Your guess as good as ours ?