HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE
WSB Cape Town Met (Grade 1)
KOMMETDIEDING has had his merit rating raised from 127 to 129 following his triumph in the Grade 1 WSB Cape Town Met on WFA terms over 2000m on the Kenilworth summer course on Saturday 29 January. The Handicappers were of the view that 3rd placed LINEBACKER – who essentially replicated last season’s Vodacom Durban July form with KOMMETDIEDING – made for the most suitable line horse, which leaves him unchanged on a mark of 126.
The Handicappers are cognizant of the fact that 2nd placed JET DARK on 130 remains rated higher than the winner despite the two meeting at level weights however the Handicappers were not convinced that JET DARK had reproduced his Queens Plate winning effort on Saturday and took into consideration that he only beat the 116-rated pair of HOEDSPRUIT and SECOND BASE by 3,5 and 4.25 lengths receptively. The Handicappers believe that JET DARK had only achieved a 127-performance in the WSB Cape Met, due to his proximity to the runners when compared to his proximity to the runners in the Queens Plate when producing a 130 performance and comfortably accounting for the likes of KOMMETDIEDING (then 127) and RAINBOW BRIDGE (then 134).
Aside from the winner, the only other increase was for 4th placed DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE, who is up from 113 to 125, but there were ratings drops for two horses. DO IT AGAIN is down from 129 to 126, while CIRILLO drops from 118 to 116.
Pongracz Cape Flying Championship (Grade 1)
BOHICA remains unchanged on a rating of 125 after he captured the WFA Pongracz Cape Flying Championship over 1000m at Kenilworth on Saturday. Here the Handicappers were of the opinion that 6th finisher BEREAVE made for the most suitable line horse, leaving him unchanged on a mark of 106. In assessing the race this way, BOHICA only runs to a mark of 114, hence his unaltered rating.
The only ratings increases were for 2nd placed MR COBBS and 3rd finisher AFRICAN RAIN, who both go up to 113, from ratings of 101 and 106, respectively, and for 5th finisher REAL GONE KID, who is up slightly from 111 to 112.
The solitary drop was for KASIMIR, who is down from 119 to 116.
Schweppes Majorca Stakes (Grade 1)
CAPTAIN’S RANSOM remains unchanged on a rating of 126 after she recorded a second successive victory in the WFA Grade 1 Majorca Stakes for fillies and mares over 1600m at Kenilworth on Saturday. After much deliberation, the Handicappers took the view that 4th placed ZARINA would not have run worse in this Grade 1 contest than when she finished fourth behind CAPTAIN’S RANSOM in a pinnacle event in early December and accordingly used the mark of 115 she achieved in that race as the yardstick by which to assess the Majorca Stakes. Nevertheless, ZARINA – who won her most recent race before the Majorca Stakes – remains unchanged on a mark of 119.
In rating the race this way, CAPTAIN’S RANSOM runs to a mark of 123, hence her unchanged rating. The only increase was for 2nd placed CHANSONETTE, who is up from 118 to 123.
No horses were given a rating’s drop after this race.
New Turf Carriers Western Cape Stayers (Grade 2)
SPARKLING WATER remains unchanged on a rating of 112 after she won the Grade 2 New Turf Carriers Western Cape Stayers over 2800m at Kenilworth on Saturday. The Handicappers were of the view that 4th placed ONE WAY TRAFFIC would not have run below the mark of 104 he actually achieved when finishing 2nd on more favourable weight terms in the Grade 3 Chairman’s Stakes three weeks earlier and used that performance to rate Saturday’s event.
In assessing the race this way, SPARKLING WATER only achieves a rating of 101, hence her unchanged mark. 2nd placed HOLY WARRIOR was raised from 93 to 104, while 3rd finisher BAYBERRY drops slightly from 105 to 104, thus ensuring that the 2nd, 3rd and 4th horses are all rated equal on 104.
There were no ratings increases or decreases for any other runners in this race.
Cape Racing Politician Stakes (Grade 3)
UNIVERSAL has had his rating raised from 105 to 113 following his success in the Grade 3 Cape Racing Politician Stakes for three-year-olds over 1800m at Kenilworth on Saturday. The Handicappers were of the view that 4th placed SENSO UNICO would not have run worse in this Grade 3 event than when finishing 2nd in an ordinary Merit Rated 82 handicap at his most recent start and accordingly used his actual achieved rating of 100 from that race to rate the Politician Stakes. Accordingly, SENSO UNICO goes up from 93 to 100.
There were increases also for 2nd finisher MASTER REDOUTE, who goes up from 87 to 99, and for 3rd placed ZAPATILLAS, who is up from 107 to 111. There was also an increase for 6th placed BARATHEON, who goes up from 80 to 86 to at least make him equal to the 86-rated 9th finisher CHOLLIMA. WAITING FOR SUMMER, whose rating had dropped from 99 to 97 following the publication of weights for this event, remains on 97. There was a small drop for NEVER ENDING RAIN, who is down from 105 to 104 and XAVION was dropped from 102 to 100.
Wolf Power 1600 (Handicap) (Listed)
AL MUTHANA has had his rating raised from 109 to 115 following his easy win in the Listed Wolf Power 1600 (handicap) over 1600m on the Turffontein standside track on Sunday 30 January. It was 2nd placed STONE COLD who was used as the line horse here, but as he was one pound or half-a-kilo under sufferance at the weights his rating goes up from 95 to 96.
In assessing this race, the Handicappers took note of the soft conditions in which it was run and kept in mind the effect of exaggerating the margins between horses that such going can have, especially towards the end of a race meeting when the track is becoming somewhat cut up. As such, a very conservative view of the race was taken and effectively the Handicappers halved the gaps between horses instead of taking them literally. To have adopted a literal view would have seen AL MUTHANA achieve a mark of at least 120, and the Handicappers were not convinced that this rating would be sustainable for AL MUTHANA given the aforementioned circumstances.
There were no increases aside from the winner, but no fewer than six horses received a rating’s drop. WILLOW EXPRESS is down from 101 to 100, CHIJMES drops from 102 to 100, EXPRESSFROMTHEUS is down to 108 from 111, LEOPOLD drops from 96 to 93, INDLAMU was cut from 99 to 97, and lastly WHORLY WHORLY is down slightly from 105 to 104.
Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team
Topic Author
If Santa Therese ran to her rating of 106, then CR ran to 117, Chansonette to 114 and Princess Calla to 115 - which looks about right imo
