Re:AIRWAYS LAW IN JULY

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Someone will always have an issue with the runners selected to make up the final field - for me I can't understand why Second Base made the cut, but Russian Rock not. But these are the rules as they stand (final field is by INVITATION), I also am of the opinion that winning the Summer Cup more than 8 months before the July, should not be a 'preferred entry' (and anyway by that rather ridiculous rule, Airways Law should have been in the final field from the start as well having won the Cup Trial).

So while I am of the opinion that the method for determining the final field is not perfect ( I think the only pre-qualification should be winning a GR 1 race ran closer to the time in KZN), I can't agree that determining the final field by the odds offered by a bookmaker is the way to go

As predicted and the scratching arrives.

Not mad about this Airways though, he got slapped a hefty 18 pts for the win in the Cup Trial.
Where he carried 54kg and beat the highest rated 112 top weight Firealley [60 kg] byabout 6 lengths.
And the pace was strong in that race, very much doubt that they will go so fast in the July.

Under sufferance from 129 rated horses like Jet Dark and Kommett carrying 60kg and taking into consideration whether the horse has got the wright jockey....................GOOD LUCK.:whistle:

OK guys maybe we lost the plot a bit here and agree you could never make up the field by using bookmakers prices.

The point I was making was that we had 2 emergency runners at around 20/1 ,ish based on form or their chance in the race.

We have a few 66/1 shots also based on their chances of winning the race .

So I was suggesting that maybe the best horses using current form are chosen rather than trying to uphold a merit racing system.

Trust me I am no expert, it was just my observation.

Plus the Tarry horse is money on for Sunday and hope this gives some compensation

Good Punting

mikesack wrote:

As predicted and the scratching arrives.

Not mad about this Airways though, he got slapped a hefty 18 pts for the win in the Cup Trial.
Where he carried 54kg and beat the highest rated 112 top weight Firealley [60 kg] byabout 6 lengths.
And the pace was strong in that race, very much doubt that they will go so fast in the July.

Under sufferance from 129 rated horses like Jet Dark and Kommett carrying 60kg and taking into consideration whether the horse has got the wright jockey....................GOOD LUCK.:whistle:

I don’t expect to convert anyone through a logical debate on weights, form etc.
The way I see it.. however skew... I’ve got a ticket at a price..
One chance in eighteen. Same as everyone else.

Mac wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

Mac wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

Mac wrote:

Dave Scott wrote: The horse is around 20/1
I spoke with Sean Tarry the other night and he was also rather upset Nebrraas did not make the field and would also have been around 20/1 ish .

So the question is; why are 66/1 shots running in front of 20/1 shots 🤔

Dave, I’ve often wondered that the list to make the final acceptors should be in the order of the antepost betting. Maybe next year, now that HollywoodBets is in the driving seat.


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place your horse to qualify - don't blame selectors if you try to game the system for a low weight - all trainers know what they have to do to qualify yet they cry when they don't get in. Form should determine a field(a thus give the punter a chance) rather than sentiment or betting moves. Belgarrion is one that to my mind had not done enough to warrant a place in the field. It will be scary if the qualifying races are removed as this will lead to bookmakers making huge money ante post as no-hopers will be in the betting and will not race but will attract dream money.

Agreed that connections should first aim to get the horse accepted instead of messing around with freshness, race figures, etc.
Disagree about the ante posts. Market prices do not find equilibrium at supply alone but also at demand. As there are many markets a bookie will soon find his prices uncompetitive and so lose revenue stream.


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imagine if you have a dog rated 75 and you as a mad person want a run in the July - you back the snail at 500-1 and it shortens to 8-1 - Should this sloth run instead of a Graded winner - Sometimes its best to leave systems alone as they are there for a reason

but everyone else will also be doing the same thing on other dogs and so equilibrium will be reached.

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......what short memories we have....as I think that when Kommett won his 1st race there was big talk about him winning the July.....

Duplicate

No short memories...the horse earned his place in the race through races won and contested...big difference to a horse that has not won or placed in a graded race being forced into the field...remember Naval Guard was also going to win the July yet he could not win a race to get in .... this year only Belgarrion has not showed graded form in the last 6 months and got in for a reason unknown to me as he did not get in on merit...his rating got him in....Second base won a Grade 2 in March and all the others have won or placed in graded races ..lots in grade 1 company...others still had automatic qualification so could not be refused a run ..ie Red Saxon...Kom was rated 100 after his first start so owners could have high expectations as their are very very few horses that have a rating that high after a debut win...he went on to prove his ability win a Grade 3 and placing in a grade 1...Airways Law did not win any qualifying races and neither did Nebrass who has contested staying races avoiding graded races over 1800m to 2000m...there are really only 8 places open in the July as the rules stand now as the rest are filled with qualifying races....good for Airfways Law but if he did not get in it was the trainers fault as he did not try to qualify the horse correctly...I personally think they were not sure if he was as good a horse on poly as on grass ...it remains to be seen if he is but he got his place correctly and it would have been a traversty had a horse like Marina got in before him based on her MR or Warrior who showed again he does not stay even 1800m...

....Mr H are you saying that the big talk about Kommett winning 1st time out got him a higher rating.... I was not actually comparing AL to Kommet but trying to comment about connections being so enthused about a horse with very little to measure it buy....sure one can get a smart horse and see it smash everything in the yard and out pace the multiple winning sorts.....but does one start backing it for the July...sure one has to have a big hope but as my Grand father once told me when I asked him why he never won a July....he said son...there are only 2 types of horses that can win the July....the very good ones or the very lucky ones.....and I have never had any of those.....:whistle:

"place your horse to qualify - don't blame selectors if you try to game the system for a low weight - all trainers know what they have to do to qualify yet they cry when they don't get in. "

Every year there is a genuine case for why a good horse doesnt get in the field and another does...and it almost always the trainers gamble that the horse would scrape into the field but didnt. Trainers with progressive horses avoid the good horses in the qualifying races as they will either get well beaten and lose their chance, or worse, get penalties for running close. They may well be looking out for their charges but theres a cost to avoiding the best horses .
The reserves might both have gotten in on form in another year but the stakes being so good this year anything that got in was going to have a go this year.
Having said all that Airways Law looked really good in the gallops and I'm pleased for the connections that he will have a chance .
Looking at the field there are the obvious choices but I could make a case that on best form and the rub of the green about 10 of them have a genuine shout at victory..not a race where the best horse will necessarily win but a pretty exciting field .

If Nebrass had a realistic chance, he should have scratched flying carpet

Could Airways Law be like Rich Strike who won the Kentucky Derby as a reserve runner/also eligible. The Conglomerate was lucky to get in the final field when it ran 4th in the Cup Trail but won the July.

Nebraas should have run in the Gold Circle Derby to maybe confirm his place. You cannot scratch Flying Carpet to get Nebraas in. Its unfair to the owners. Even if he did Airways Law should have got in first.

Russian Rock with a higher merit rating and a former Grade 1 winner should have made the field. On the dam side it is related to, Epsom Oaks winner, Tuesday.

When I was growing up, the July was the race. Its still South Africa biggest race amongst South African public. When I grew older and understood more about horseracing, I realized that Grade 1 WFA is the ultimate race. At the moment, the Cape Guineas for both sexes, the Queens Plate, The Met, Daily News 2000 and Garden Province are the races to saviour. The Mercury Sprint at Clairwood was another.