Why is it that the success rate in horse racing is limited to 33%?.

anandbasappa wrote:

There was a study done by scientists on the accuracy of the human brain getting it right all the time and the findings of the study was that the human brain can get it right by 80% only all the time and it can never go beyond that percentage no matter what the situation. I don't have a clue as to who conducted this study, when, where and all other details associated with it but the findings did strike a chord with me and thought it will be helpful if shared here.

Now in horse racing we look at many or rather various parameters in order to come to a conclusion on which horse to take a bet on. Generally we look at five basic parameters.

01) The distance of the race.

02) Prior form of the horse.

03) Odds offered in the betting market.

04) Jockey booked to ride (whether hot or cold).

05) Conditioner of the horse (whether hot or cold).

The first four are common to most of the punters and the fifth one can be replaced with another parameter if desired as there are a plethora of them.

In each step if the findings of the study is applied then this is what happens.

01) You are right by 80%.

02) You are right by 80% of that 80% which is 64%.

03) You are right by 80% of that 64% which is 51.2%.

04) You are right by 80% of that 51.2% which is 40.96%.

05) You are right by 80% of that 40.96% which is 32.76% which roughly translates to 33%.

This also proves the global fact that out of 3 favourites only 1 comes home and the other 2 bite the dust. Armed with this knowledge book makers make merry and we punters think we are more knowledgeable and try to beat them at this game. It's not that its not possible to come up trumps but there has to be a deep understanding of this universal logic and there has to be a way in which one can overcome all odds and emerge victorious. For example if I say instead of looking at 5 basic parameters why not look at 1 or 2 so that the chances of getting it right is increased, just a proposition.

We look at many other parameters like breeding, course and distance suitability, weight carried by the horse, draw number bagged, collateral formlines, head to head data, conditioner/jockey combo and many other, sometimes we try to get that "inside info" as well. So more the number of parameters lesser will be the chances of getting it right as per the findings of that study. And this study was not related to horse racing at all, it was a general study done to assess the capability of the human brain in any given situation.