Trainers warming up their engines .... for the punter a bit of a dilemma - who is ready and who is not - plus the Ratings still need closer inspection - thoughts ...
R1: I do not think The Octagon is an odds-on shot, might win due to the scarcecity of opposition, but has been beaten by moderate sorts to date; the one that I'm having a go each-way is Jabberwocky - last time finished close to Dual Prophecy - I have no idea if he will need the run, or not - but for me at 20/1 is the value - does not hurt that Habib takes the ride; Obsidian also comes out of a strong race, so I prefer him to the favorite too
R2: Trappy opening leg of the BP; I'm guessing that Stormy Sunday on her pinultimate is the right one; Countess Q will improve but may need another run
R3: Competitive handicap; Atarime my first choice from BattleofBarberton, who may not be suited to the Inside track; Moola Man tries further, but being out of a West Man mare, I have my doubts if he will stay, while Master Tik Tok seems held by B
R4: I'm siding with Raiseahallelujah again, Explosive Bond the main danger, but I am of the view that R won more convincing than the margin suggests; Zeus may have needed his last start and I think he is also cabable on good ground; Lerena partners him again, so imo he will finish closer to the others today - Twin Turbo probably in the race as pace-maker
R5: It hinges on whether Mia Moo is ready - even at 80% she should have the beating of this field and looks suited to sprinting on her dam's side; market support for Say It Loud and Salenio Peninsula, but if one thinks that Mia Moo can be beaten, I'd rather include Bosum Buddy and Saigon Suzie as well
R6: 3yr-olds have traditionally had the advantage in this race; I think that VJ's Angel is very capable (was Habib offered the ride ?), but has a very tough task at the draw, while Fiery Pegasus is only drawn 2 stalls inside of her; Frozen Fantasy was beaten by more than 6 lengths VJ in May and seem held by VJ on the form behind Quid Pro Quo; I'm siding with the older fillies / mares; White Pearl drawn better than both Gimme A Shot and Celtic Rumours, so the right one imo (and Lerena probably had the choice betweeen Gimme and CR - even though CR seems a difficult ride)
R7: Main Defender's race to lose; for me Gladatorian the one that could take advantage if MD fluffs his lines; Barbaresco has a nice draw, but Strydom looks like he has chosen to ride Zinovi (I know he is employed by ASSM, but would be nice to know if he was offered the choice) - Z must have a place chance on his pinultimate (has Back in Business stone cold at the weights on that run) and not too sure what happened in his last start - 2nd run in a week after a break ? Many others can run into the money, but Main Defender the right one imo
R8: Interesting Graduation Plate, where the Ratings should be put to the test; imo Bufallo Bill Cody the right one, but Bakwena and Musical Score both have big reputations; Truth might need further and according to the Gallop interview, this might be a starting point; interesting runner is Gorgeous Kline from pole position (has Habib chosen him, as Lerena now seems first choice for the stable ?)
R9: Competitive handicap to close; narrow first choice for me would be Smith and Wesson from pole position; has not won for 500+ days, but rating has come down; the competition also has not visited the winner's enclosure in a while (apart from Kinshi Sha, who seems better down the straight) - Rainbow Reward 400+ days, Karangetang 600 + days (very disappointing last run when finding nothing at the finish) and Swing Upon A Star (imo will be struggling to match speed with these over 1000m) 200+ days - so I would not want to be caught short in the P6 or even the PA
Enjoy
