Race 8 Main Defender - priced to short. May win but not for me at that price
Race 6 Dyce - 5/10 much better value has been super impresive since Gelding.
Race 10 Dancing Dora - one of my face each way horses. Should win today
Race 9 Drive like a master
Race 7 Fiery Pegasus
Race 5 Red Bomber
Race 4 Busstopinsomewhereoranother
Race 3 Jet Querari
Race 2 Fetching Flyer
Race 1 Arashi
Thoughts - looks a 4-legged P6 - but we have seen that before - Dyce from an inside draw could be vulnerable ...
R1: Juveniles - and they improve at various rates; the money is for Arashi, but not a lot to choose between her debut and the other filly Caroline Island, who had the disadvantage of an inside draw; this time Arashi has the inside draw, so for me I prefer CI; Bingo has found interest in the market, but I would think that he would be 3rd best - needs to give the fillies 2,5 kgs and they had the one run under the belt
R2: Explosive Bond overdue, but for me she had the ideal opportunity last time - only beat Raiseahallelujah by just more than 2 lengths receiving 8 kgs - today she has top weight and has to give weight away to the other fillies and mares and this is a handicap; I do fancy Apache Fighter a bit - last time she ran over the trip was in Dec '24 where she was expected to beat United Council and that one seems held by AF on the form behind Olivia's Way - AF gets to run over 2400 for the first time since that run and has come down a couple of points in the ratings - I think she is a big runner, despite drifting in the market; One Religion must have a chance as well, but she needs to prove that she stays the trip
R3: Seems a moderate field and as such the first-timer Futurenaire does not need to be a superstar to win this - and has drawn towards the stand side; Jet Querari has had only one run and is entitled to improvement and might be good enough here if the debutante is not that capable; the favorite Espinoza is drawn on the inside and does not seem value at the odds imo
R4: Handicap, where the top 3 from good draws should fight it out; One Party had a lot in his favour last time, but lacked a finish in the sprint - tries 1400 and has a fair draw, so not without a chance; Libeccio pops up now and again, but it would be interesting to know if Mxoli has chosen Lave Fire who could suprise
R5: A complicated puzzle; Storm Brasco best rated, but has not run for a while, so chances are he would need a run or two; The Specialist has had 3 below par efforts recently, but probably prefers this trip and could feature at best; Red Bomber has won once this trip and finished 2nd twice. so from pole position must have a chance again; Truth was taken out last time, but he has found market support again, so hard to predict; imo Taxi to the Moon has a lot to do here especially over 1400
R6: As mentioned, Dyce has drawn towards the inside, and might lack the speed needed over 1000, still at odds-on must be the one to beat; Time fo Orchids disappointed badly last time, but might be worth another chance; Golden Sickle very fast, but has been rested and might come up for air over the last 100, while I Am Giant will run on strongly, but might not get there in time
R7: Interestingly, this race demonstrates the incorrect application of the MR system, as Fiery Pegasus has beaten VJ's Angel twice recently, but is a whopping 12 points lower than VJ in the ratings; I think it is pretty obvious that the younger fillies get a big advantage the weights here; best older filly imo Silver Sanctuary (if ignoring her last start) - has finished closer to Gimme A Nother this year than both Let's Go Now and White Pearl
R8: Main Defender has to fall over to lose here; only danger Texas Red, but even receiving 6 kgs seems not enough
R9: Bakwena looks hard to beat, but I think that Big Boy Bruce could give him something to think about - has the better draw, so I prefer that one; Drivelikeamaster beat perennial 'sure-to-get-2nd' Vibe SA on debut, but this seems a lot stronger, so I think His Lordship (raced wide last time around the turn) would be a bigger danger from the Stenger stable
R10: For interest, I'd be having a stab at Written in Stone
Enjoy
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Dyce falls into the 'leave them on a four timer' category but difficult to see what can beat him. I went with Golden Sickle as appears better down the straight ... but I admit I am clutching at straws.
My Pick Six bankers are Busstopinhounslow and Main Defender .... 3 x F x F x 3,4,7,8 x 1 x 1,2,5,7,9 .... R140 for 20% bankering Dyce as well would make it supercheap {shrug}
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