1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

So See it Agan runs, the rest of the 3yr olds and field is under sufferance to 8 on 18 or Sail the seas.
Both these horses will be the top 3 of the Daily News for sure, probably top 2 as well.
What we do know is that Snaith will run a fast and true run race, as was case with Express Yourself in the Derby. No doubt 8 on 18 irrespective of weight, Nic Johnson has won this race not in his silks but as a part owner of Do It Again. So you can be sure there is a Master Plan for him to win it in his Silks with his potential boom stallion to come. 
Whether it be 57kgs or 56kgs etc. We know it's not going to be 58 or 55kgs, what we do know is that in the last 2 starts Richard has been starting his engine on the horse alot earlier. So it will come down to draws. Richard is not going to pass up this ride to ride any of the other stable horses, and i don't think Muzi is going to jump off Sail the Seas.....

I'm sure Richard and team is looking at the potential competition performances of late and slightly getting more and more confident.


 

mr hawaii wrote:

Oriental Charm will carry 59kg if See it Again is top weight....so he's 3.5kg better off with 8 on 18 for half length in the Met...has 8 on 18 improved that much ?

I think that is the question - even if 8 on 18 wins the DN and goes for the July, he would probably be raised in MR for the July - but that would not matter as he will still be carrying 57 kgs - another thing to take into account is WFA - 8 on 18 would probably improve as he gets older - all in all not a lot between them imo - also I have not heard anything about the intended prep for OC ....

Its been awhile.

Just to note, Eight On Eighteen, Sail The Seas or any other 3 year old can carry 60kgs. Abashiri carried 59kgs in the July as a 3 year old. Weights can be raised proportionately.

See It Again merit rating can decrease while the 3 years old mentioned can increase their merit ratings so their weight can be more than 57kgs. Also if See It Again gets scratched, weights will be raised proportionately.

I've not got the energy so I'll speculate...there has never been a crop of 3yr olds that won Kings Plate, Met, HF Oppenheimer and Premier Champions ...that's 4 Gr 1 for 4 different horses....must be the best overall crop in recent history...we've had star 3yr olds but never all in one crop

I see the noms for the Cup Trial are out - all the usual suspects, but no Oriental Magic - might be in the Gold Challenge ...

After the running of the DN2000, see HW have 8 on 18 trading at 5/2 (in from 7/2) and Sail The Seas has drifted further from 14/1 to 16/1. Must say, can't see this horse (8 on 18) not taking his place in the July/

As expected 8/18 is 5/2, pending the next run of Oriental Charm he could even be 2-1 for the July.

Everyone has there view and thoughts, I think even if every other 3yr old, barring Sail the Sea ran, this result would off been the same. Still think the both good at home and the Snaiths didn't want them to ware down each other in a dual. 

This race was important as it wasn't just about the 2nd run after the rest, which 8/18 is probably 80% ready. It's also about the fact that the way Richard rode the horse it was like a July dry run. 

Dropped out to last, pacemaker strung them along, then slowed it down to allow the champ to catch up a bit, then the pacemaker went full tilt again. Then Richard swopped the field at the 600m mark with a powerful burst, then took the quicker inside rail. He stopped riding with vigor from the last 150m mark. Very few has that kick power the horse has. He will carry the weight, i guess it could never be a better time to carry the weight when every other older horse is running as if they are on chronic medication, ring rusty and lost its sparks, maybe barring See it Again.

won't be surprised if 3yr olds fill the entire Trifecta. 

Once.we get the go ahead he runs, I will.start the doubles and trebles. Maybe with a back up to Sail the Seas.
 

After yesterday's Daily News .. nothing can beat 8 on 18.. NOthing will .. infact I see Mr Jonhson running the trifecta if Muncho Dinero wins in Cape town today. with see it again to possibly run 3rd in the July..

I believe Little Suzie should be in the July field and Spumante Dolce should be withdrawn.. didn't impress me yesterday against 8 on 18..scraped in.. balance of the July quartet should be Selukwe.

my forecast for the July - 8 on 18 winner, 2nd Little Suzie (if she gets supp) 3rd & 4th Selukwe,and or Muncho Dinero and See it again for the last time.. But the Snaith & Jonson combination will be evident in this race

Taking Snaith's word as gospel .... 50/50 if 8 on 18 runs in the July .... and I agree with the sentiments that is a rough race ... easier route would be the Champions Cup (most likely a smaller field) ... but I guess it is up to the owners to run in the July or not;
And surely this log will change (especially after Mucho Dinero just dished up a poor run) ... on the DN both the other Snaith runners should be on the log ... 

After the first race winner, Snaith hinted that maybe 8/18 needs to lose some weight as he could have a tough race coming up, this sounded positive.

Given that all of everything else he has for the race may not qualify or be good enough for the top 6, i think 8/18 will run. Cant see Mucho Dinero, Pacaya, Okavango, Native Ruler, etc all getting close.

Still intrested on Sail the Sea. Could be a lurker if he runs, that's if he is not really, truely some serious set back? I don't know why there is so little questions and answers on this.

I can't figure out why Nic Johnson won't race him, as from 1 August he will be a 4yr old (3 weeks after the July) and will forever in his life carry a minimum of 60kgs there on after. Next year in the July he will probably have to give horses 7/8 kgs. And he will be the top weight in the race no doubt.
This horse is probably the best Nic Johnson has ever had over the distance. In 6 months it could win 4 grade 1's, that is unimaginable a feat. And one that will not be forgotten for a while.

The Champions Cup won't be so easy, I'm sure Main Defender, Dave the King and Sail the Seas won't be easy to beat over 1800m.

The horse has no equal over the July distance. He is 3rd gear, whilst everyone else is stuck and lossing power.

Race over if he runs,

Snaith eluded to the July being a very rough race in one of his interviews yesterday. You need a good draw , a true run race and luck in running to win that race .

The way they speak about this horse , I personally can't see them running him in the July and the likely race will be Champions Cup and then Stud.

I would like to see this horse overseas in UK / Europe / Dubai but don't think that will ever happen. 

I find it so odd that in previous discussions about his horse snaith had said that the July was 8/18 mission. I never for a moment thought they were still considering. I think he just wants to spice it up like ever time they give him a microphone after a win.However during last week the only bookmaker drifted the horse badly for the July was Interbet exchange on the morning they were betting 13/2 on a horse that others had 7/2, this worry’s me as you can’t manipulate the betting on ante post July like they do on normal races,  

My thoughts for the big race is that the Durban July is every owners dream and surely this is the best chance they would have especially that other horses are just failing. I think it won’t be near previous July fields. When he met sail the sea last time 8/18 was so badly underdone that on Saturday sail the sea would have been well beaten. Run the horse and take home the July cup.