1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

Sylvester
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

13 hours 21 minutes ago

#899288

10 runners came out this morning 38 left for now

3 Jockeys booked
Habib
Yeni
Zackey

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Sylvester
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

8 hours 13 minutes ago

#899293

29 left for now.
Snaith still has 6 nominated

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Frodo
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

6 hours 17 minutes ago - 6 hours 12 minutes ago

#899294

Can't see why Legend of Arthur has not been taken out - maybe the trainer knows better ... my prediction of the log
Horse
Oriental Charm 2
Gladatorian 3
Royal Victory 5
Purple Pitcher 15
The Real Prince 16
Eight on Eighteen 1
Atticus Finch 7
See It Again 4
Future Swing 18
Son of Raj 20
Okavango 14
Native Ruler 17
Madison Valley 10
My Best Shot 8
Confederate 9
On My Honour 11
Rainbow Lorikeet 19
Legend of Arthur 12
Selukwe 13
Immediate Edge 6

Last edit: 6 hours 12 minutes ago by Frodo.

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bayern
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

6 hours 16 minutes ago

#899295

Immediate Edge (108), see the bookies have him at 7/1. Off his current rating and he makes the final field, surely he'll be under sufferance big time with 8 on 18 (129), considering the minimum weight for a 3 year old colt is 53.0.

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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Frodo
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

6 hours 8 minutes ago

#899296

bayern wrote:

Immediate Edge (108), see the bookies have him at 7/1. Off his current rating and he makes the final field, surely he'll be under sufferance big time with 8 on 18 (129), considering the minimum weight for a 3 year old colt is 53.0.

Yip - but 8 on 18 will only carry 57 kgs - to be honest on my ratings IE is a 111, but still under sufferance ...

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bayern
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

5 hours 57 minutes ago

#899297

Frodo wrote:

bayern wrote:

Immediate Edge (108), see the bookies have him at 7/1. Off his current rating and he makes the final field, surely he'll be under sufferance big time with 8 on 18 (129), considering the minimum weight for a 3 year old colt is 53.0.

Yip - but 8 on 18 will only carry 57 kgs - to be honest on my ratings IE is a 111, but still under sufferance ...

If we go on the premise that all the horses in the final field will be bumped up 1.0kg, and 8 on 18 carries 58.0kg, most horses will be worse off in relation to 8 on 18, especially the 3 year olds.

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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mr hawaii
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

5 hours 45 minutes ago

#899298

I think Legend was always going to run....he won a gr 1 and placed in another...Tarry has never been a gin strike trainer but this horse has steels last 2....that's a clear signal to selectors and public that the horse is just having a run....also avoided daily news.....on his run in the derby no way can immediate edge get into the July before Legend....both will run surely...My Best Shot?...has been 111 last 5 starts so the official handicapper does not think he's July class and for me needed to win out of province ....

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bayern
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

5 hours 37 minutes ago

#899299

mr hawaii wrote:

I think Legend was always going to run....he won a gr 1 and placed in another...Tarry has never been a gin strike trainer but this horse has steels last 2....that's a clear signal to selectors and public that the horse is just having a run....also avoided daily news.....on his run in the derby no way can immediate edge get into the July before Legend....both will run surely...My Best Shot?...has been 111 last 5 starts so the official handicapper does not think he's July class and for me needed to win out of province ....

All the 3 year olds will be under sufferance whether 8 on 18 carries 57.0 or 58.0kgs

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Kaotik PA Punter
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

5 hours 31 minutes ago

#899300

The max weight a 3yr old can carry, no matter what is 57kgs. They changed the rules a few years back, after the Abashiri situation with a 3yr old carrying top weight. No chance any of the 3yr olds beat 8/18 with a 4kg swing.

Its a question of draws, pace and how far back 8/18 is. As it will have to catch the front runner Oriental Charm, who is see stopping at the 1900m. The danger for me is Gladatorian.

The Snaiths may well stand next to the stage before the race, 8/18 will start as the shortest July favorite in the last 2 decades I'm sure.

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Dazza
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

4 hours 53 minutes ago

#899301

We are all assuming 8 on 18 runs. What if he doesn't?

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Charl
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

4 hours 52 minutes ago

#899302

I don't have The Equator in my database.

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bayern
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

3 hours 47 minutes ago

#899303

Dazza wrote:

We are all assuming 8 on 18 runs. What if he doesn't?

Whether you add 1.0kg to all the horses, or the wfa is already deducted, 8 on 18 should be the best weighted horse in the race. Compare 8 on 18 to any horse in the field, and according to Charl's ratings and weights, he is the best in. They'll be silly not to run him

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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