Tomorrow it is 4 weeks to the Glorified Handicap on the 1st Saturday in July - so imo the connections of the possible runners are caught in something of a conundrum ....
Firstly there is the question of 8 on 18 - will he take part ?
Secondly (and that depends on the answer to the first question) - possible runners will depend on whether 8 on 18 takes his place or not. If 8 on 18 does not run, surely the connections of the other possible runners will suddenly take heart .... still the connections need to make sure that their runners come into the race at peak condition - for some (mainly runners in the Gold Challenge) it would mean that they could still afford to not be 100%, but for other border-line runners, they may look to the Cup Trial. For these runners, the connections would ideally still be looking to leave 'some meat on the bone' - but also make sure they catch the eye of the 'Panel' and come into the July 'realistically rated'
In Turf Talk, they are contemplating whether perhaps the weights of the July runners should be made known before the Gold Challenge. Imo, this is a 50-50 call - it would advantage some, but not others. I would suggest that the 'Powers that Be' change the calendar of the lead-up to the July - for me -
Firstly 'they' should contemplate changing the conditions of the Daily News to be similar to the Woolavington - which means that they should not restrict the race to 3-yr-olds (this would mean that it probably loses its 'Gr 1 status' - but I would argue that there are really few truely Gr 1 races left in SA). If older horses may take part in the DN, it would mean that 'more realistic' ratings would come out of it, seeing that the older horses had some time to justify their ratings - and it might lead to the 3-yr olds not having 'unrealistic' ratings - which in turn would result in the 3-yr olds come into the July weighted 'fairly' - so not having to justify some artibrarily concept of having '3-yr olds have a max weight of x'
Secondly, I would split the Gold Challenge and the Cup Trial; imo runners in the Gold Challenge should not be using this as a gallop to reach 100% 'readiness' - I think the Gold Challenge (it might be the only race in SA truely worth its Gr 1 status) should be the best horses competing over a middle distance (e.g. 1600). The Cup Trial imo, should be a 'trial' for the July, where border-line contestants should catch the Panel's eye to justify their running in the July. To follow this argument, imo the Gold Challenge (where I think The Real Prince should have run, as he is doubtful to be as effective over the 2200m in the July) should be scheduled to run anywhere during the 'Champions Season' - and it might be a week before the July - and therefor runners should also be contemplating the Champions Cup. The Cup Trial should ideally be run 3 weeks before the July, in order to give 'border-line' runners the chance to qualify - other runners imo should use the Jubilee (to be run on the same weekend as the Cup Trial) as a prep.
But, as it stands, the Gold Challenge and the Cup Trial (and the Jubilee) are run this coming weekend; so my predictions on what would happen ...
In the Gold Challenge, I think Dave the King is ideally suited - and I made the point that 4/1 Ante-Post could be a steal (I see it is now trading at around 22/10). Dangers are See It Again (but imo better over further) and Gladatorian (currently trading at a generous 10/1); Montien could be dangerous as he seems to be targetting this race, but has a tough draw. I think the 3-yr-olds have it all to do receiving only 1.5 kgs from their elders; Oriental Charm has his first run since the Met and should be needing it; William Robertson and Cafe Culture imo are really good sprinters, but 1600 ?
The Cup Trial is wide open (as a handicap should be - I see Pomodoro's Jet is a scratching which does not bode well for his participation in the July); Weight should be the difference - 3 runners are weighted at 52kgs - Zeitz has a tough draw, but has beaten Garrix (receiving 3 kgs) but is still out by 2,5 kgs at the weights. He is however (based on the run beating Garrix and where Regulation was soundly beaten) looks to have some 'upside' to his rating - this race will show. 2nd runner at 52 kgs is Winter Games (still a July entry), but he surely should be stretched over the 1800 - even though he is theoretically better off than Zeitz. Of the older runners, Pacaya should be at best over 1800, but has been deserted by Fourie and is constantly drifting in the betting - and for me he is a doubtfull July entry (having show his best form up to 2000). Underworld might be best of the Snaith contingent and ran a fair race behind Selukwe in the Greyville 1900. The others (although I backed On My Honour at 100/1 in the July) looks to have much to do at the weights
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Race 2, 1600m: “Tyrconnell has been frustrating to follow, we expected him to win his last run. He manages to find excuses every time. From draw one, and stepping up to 1600m, we’re hoping everything can go his way. He can win a race like this. Ingqwele didn’t run the race we expected last week, but he was squeezed for running room on the outside fence, so we’re putting a line through that run. He didn’t have a hard race, we’re running him again and we’re hoping he can bounce back with something much better.
Race 3, 1900m: “An open race. Nocturnal Flight hasn’t been far off in his few runs for us. He’s been travelling a bit hard, so we’re taking the blinkers off him, which is somewhat of a gamble but perhaps it can allow him to switch off and relax, have more to come over the last 400m. He is worthy of inclusion.”
Race 6, 1400m: “Yippee Kiyay has a good draw and he’s in good form at home. He comes out of a Maiden into a Listed race, but we think he can handle it and is a big runner. Whispering Death has had a bit of a freshening up after his Joburg campaign. He is not fully wound up and doesn’t have the best of draws. This is a stepping stone for July day, the run will bring him on.”
Race 7, 1600m: “Dave The King has enjoyed a smooth preparation into the Gold Challenge, he is doing well. We’ve seen a nice amount of improvement in his fitness and well-being. We are confident of a big run. It’s a competitive and exciting contest, we’re hoping he’ll be the best horse come Saturday.”
Race 8, 1400m: “Oxalis Gold is back over the course and distance of her recent feature win. She is in good form at home, can place herself well within a race and looks to be one of the main contenders. Include in all bets.”
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I have attached (as a pdf), my software's ranking and odds for all today's Greyville Races (1-10). Hopefully there is something (played at your own risk) of value to consider compared to market odds/prices.
Below are some of the bets I wil be considering for myself, race by race.
Race 2: Value #s 6,9 swing with #1.
Race 3 Value #12,3 swing with #6.
Race 4 Open race Swing #1 with #s 9,6
Race 5 Value #5 swing with #s 3,4
Race 6 #s8,10 SWG, EXA Race 7
Race 7 Software likes #10 @33-1 SWG with #3,11 eg 3 SEEITAGAIN with 10,11 EW on #10 Royal Aussie.
Race 8 SWG #8/5,9
Race 9 Software makes it wide open with shock 50-1 #11 Ponte Pietra on top (software was definitely smoking weed again). Perhaps pass the race based on these wild rankings or take a R20 EW on #11, can't hurt, and maybe SWG #9 with #s 5,11
Race 10 SWG, EXA #s 7,1
The following user(s) said Thank You: Sammy Silver
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