A lifelong punter, Richard is an avid reader of this blog. He asked if we could revisit the trainer jockey stats covered in an article a few months ago as he finds it enjoyable going through the combinations then placing bets.
Few horse players are privy to the behind-the-scenes strategizing (some cynics might call it “scheming”) of trainers, jockeys and their booking agents. And in the absence of trials or workout reports/videos, punters are regrettably in the dark about a horse’s current physical condition and race-readiness.
It’s helpful checking out those trainers and jockeys who do well when teaming up. Conditioners are, most likely, giving it their best shot when re-engaging a jockey that has been successful on their primed horses in the past.
And accomplished jockeys motivated to boost their earnings want to ride live chances, not unfit battlers put in the wrong races.
So, by focusing on “well meant” entries trained by competent horseman when they are partnered by some of the sharpest jocks in town, bettors give themselves a chance on homing in on genuine contenders.
Below are the updated seasonal figures for selected Cape trainers.
Bass & Moodley 20% 47%
Crawford & Fourie 16% 46%
Crawford & Murray 20% 48%
Crawford & Zackey 31% 69%
Kotzen & Bungane 18% 59%
Kruyer & v d Merwe 18% 44%
Marcus & Habib 18% 45%
Marshall & Fourie 26% 52%
Nel & Fortune 13% 73%
Reeves & Zackey 18% 53%
Sands & de Melo 40% 60%
Sands & Zackey 20% 48%
Snaith & Fourie 24% 51%
Woodruff & Fourie 23% 40%
As an exercise, here is a P.A. for Sunday’s Kenilworth meeting using no handicapping judgement whatsoever but based entirely on these high percentage trainer jockey stats.
6 8 10 12 x 5 8 x 5 10 x 1 2 x 4 7 x 1 2 7 8 9 10 x 3 7 8 9 = R1536.00
You don’t want to overspend on any exotic bet and kill the value. This is probably too much to invest in a relatively lower paying bet such as the P.A. and some refinement/cost cutting could be in order.
This is where the personal judgement of individual punters kicks in who can support their favorite riders and barns.
Using trainer/ jockey combos as a basis for selection is sound in principle as it measures “positive intent.” It like peeking into a prism that reflects what successful industry “insiders” are doing in a highly competitive sphere.
Just as punters are trying to land winning wagers, jocks and trainers are striving to get into No 1 Box, boost earnings and make their own businesses profitable.
So, they align themselves with racing allies who have a track record of getting the job done. Not all the time, of course – but often enough to make it worthwhile.
Bio: Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over three decades. A full-time racing journalist since 2013, he’s known for his integrity and imaginative handicapping, adapting the principles of Andrew Beyer’s figures to South African racecourses.
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