Calling Magiclips and Karel Miedema

Have a look at Race 8 Turffontein last week. Handicapper says the second was the line horse. Mathew, you have an interest in the fourth and since it had been off the track for some time would have been difficult to justify that as the line horse.

I own a share of the third horse. He has been off for more than 6 months and ran a cracker under 65,5 kgs to get within 2 lengths of the line horse. He has not won for more than a year, and his previous runs prior to the lay off do not justify his current merit ratings on both surfaces.

Can you justify to me why the handicapper will not drop his merit rating, given the above. He says he can't because " he is too good a horse". I recall several pundits prior to the Charity Mile complaining on Tellytrack that he did not deserve his place in the race,despite this being justified based on the merit rating.

I thought the object of handicapping was to give every horse an equal chance of winning ? His high rating means that should we want to run him between now and August he will haave to carry 67 or 68 kgs.

If I was the handicapper I would see no reason to drop him right now.
Your own statement of: he has been off for more than 6 months and ran a cracker under 65,5 kgs to get within 2 lengths of the line horse (who was beaten a neck by the winner) supports that view.
What would be your rationale for dropping him now?

I notice he had come down from 104 to 99 in his last five runs already (with a hiccup upwards after a good effort in-between).

Karel

I don't believe that he ran to a 99 last week, nor has he run to that rating on grass for some time. The time of the race does not suggest an above average performance. He was beaten around 2 lengths by the line horse and behind him were many other horses whose merit ratings need to be looked at.

He was dropped because the handicapper mistakenly decided to rate him the same on both surfaces based on a sand run. He is still correcting his earlier mistakes imvho.

Why do you believe he ran to a 99.

I'm not suggesting any rating.
Just that he ran in a handicap ('everyone the same chance') after a lay-off, and came within 2 lengths of the winner.

Karel, You know as well as I do that not every horse that runs in a handicap has an equal chance. His run was excellent, way above expectations after the lay off and yet he was 2l behind the line horse. These are facts. If the line horse ran to his MR then mine run below, simple deduction. You cannot guess improvement on a 5 year old horse.

I understand why you do not wish to rate the run, leave it at that.

Mark 2l behind, does that equate to -MR4 = hopefully they'll put him down to 95?

all the best mate - Jim

Lol Jim, that is not the way things work.


Next run beaten approx 5l and the horse that finished in front of him Captain Hercules again beat him despite being penalised. Result was a 1 point MR reduction.
The handicapper says he cannot drop further "as he is too good a horse" but god only knows what this assessment is based on.

I suppose it is a start.