Racing, pace, and value today..by Leon Setaro

Racing, pace, and value today..by Leon Setaro

With the Vodacom Durban July now ink on paper in the history books, the
wind down of Winter season has begun. There's still meat left on the
bone though and a few more chances for beleaguered punters to turn
things around before the circus leaves town.
Looking back on the big day and comparing the race time of the July, to
the grade 3 SABC Sport 2200 over the same distance, it would appear that
yet again a slow pace has marred the Sport of Kings. Take nothing away
from Big City Life the winner who looked to have plenty left had there
been any real challenge, but what of the first 5 horses past the post in
the SABC Sport 2200 that all clocked faster times than Big City Life
giving him chunks of weight! Killaridge, Bill of Rights, Mr. Esplendid,
Al Pasha and Autumn Frost may all be good horses but had they competed
in the July would they have relegated Big City Life to 6th position as
the clock tells us? Not likely. Since SA racing continues to flap around
in the dark ages by choosing to exclude the use of sectional timing
technology, we are unable to access even the basics of race and time
analysis and the entire industry appears quite happy to flatter
mediocrity by allowing piss poor pace, time and time again.

Tech and stats aside, consider the jockeys' role in the race; surely
they are capable of effectively judging race speeds and could easily
avoid the 'crawl and sprint' scenario if they so wished. And what of the
trainers? Why can't a horse be conditioned to race against the clock in
order to achieve max potential, instead of settling for the 'tuck in and
run on' routine? With sectional timing in place, jockeys applying the
art of judging pace, and horses conditioned around the reality that in a
race every second counts, who knows how strong the form book would
become.

Earlier on in the season I pointed out a similar situation where the
devastating effects of a slow pace were aptly demonstrated by the filly
Summer Samba. She raced twice over the same course and distance
(Scottsville 1400m) in a period of 2 weeks and clocked in times that
differed by a full 3 seconds, the equivalent of 15 lengths!. If lack of
early and mid-race pace can cost a horse 15 lengths by race end, it's no
wonder racing is littered with form puzzling results.
Staying with Summer Samba, she runs in the 5th race today reverting back
to 1200m and this should be what she's looking for.
Unfortunately she bumps a field that may be a bit strong for her to
emerge victorious this time but priced at 20/1 on Interbet, this is a
wager opportunity I won't be ignoring even though I fancy Giant's Jewel
(7/1) strongly to win this race.

The favourite Winter Burst (16/10) has impeccable form and looked
superb last time out on the canter past so must be in with a big chance
and there's also been two R25k claims on Mill Kee Way which has seen her
shorten from 16/1 to 4/1 so bear that in mind as well.
In the main race of the day there's a 100% stretch available on Interbet
about Polzeath priced at 20/1 which is unbelievable considering her
current form against stronger. A questionmark about whether she is at
her best over 2400m and she's got some proven stayers to beat, but with
the very real chance of a slow pace she's in with a chance and the 20/1
is all wrong. Her Ladyship at 14/1 is another big value offering in the
race, she's got excellent recent form and has winning experience over
this track and trip, a considerable advantage over the visiting horses
that hog the top of the betting boards.
Perfect weather for racing today and with the big prices on offer,
here's to hoping for the return of winning fortune!



FOLLOW LEON ON

Mill Kee Way - Kitalpha - The last one the de Kock stable sent out by this sire won by 7 legths. His form with Zim breds impeccable so be wary

kitalpha seems to have three things in his offspring - bad bone, bad temperement and lots of speed. very few train on

Great points about pace, Leon.

Temperment seems fine to me - two in the yard and no problems - jointy yes - not train on I doubt very much - Killaridge - Remember this guy was crossed to mainly Zim mares so the quality not the best - awaiting his USA crop with interest. Also you forgot to add Value for Money as a stallion - he stood for 10K before leaving.

fair enough mr hawaii. have seen a few in our yard and they are all hot. your comment on zim mares may explain the bone issue. lets talk in a few years on how they trained on.

Must say that some that are regarded as the best work horses in some yards (and i've heard of at least three or four like this) hit the track and seem to be useless -

Treaj Pots to win the 7th...

Well done with Giants jewel in the 5th ..cheers

Thks gents.