UK -Gold Cup day

Last day at Cheltenham today and it`d Gold Cup day,can`t see Kauto having any Chinks in his armour and the field looks quite weak,so it`s Kauto all the way for me.Cheltenham Card


Race 1 : Strong on Alavain was very impressed when seen him winning last time..

Race 2 : No2son fancies Eradicate and he is the first person i ask `what you fancy this year at Cheltenham` so will stick with this one.

Race 3 : Tell Massini in injured Sam Thomas was suicidal at missing this ride at Cheltenham.

Race 4 : Kauto Star from Tricky Trickster

Race 5 : pass

Race 6 : Balthazar King hobbs team are flying this week,it`s a conditionala race but im sure Reece Flint lost his claim last week.

Race 7 : Pigeon Island to run a place at a big price..

Goodluck if your taking part..

Scotia is on the Train to cheltenham,says there is a great Atmosphere,will be in the Guiness Village soon..

French Champagne and Bacon Rolls on the train, nescafe and dry toast for me..

I was lucky to be at the course when Denman smashed Kauto in the muck a couple of years ago. That performance must surely go down as the most relentless gallop ever seen at Cheltenham. The ground was Kauto's undoing as well as Denman being at his absolute peak that day.

The tables have turned since then so unless Kauto screws up one his jumps I just cant see him getting beat. Last year I had a nice bet at 2-1 but odds on is not my kinda price over fences so I'll be watching rather than punting.

Hopefully amongst the 35 meetings Tellytrack are broadcasting today we'll be able to see the lead in and presentation, now let me go and see the pigs flying outside...

Bacon rolls and French champers hope he gets off at the right terminal,the lucky bastard.

Today is Gold Cup Day and you would need to be relatively 'horse racing unaware' to be completely disinterested in the outcome of the Cheltenham showpiece.

I am always looking to beat the favourites - so please take my comments with the bucket of salt they probably deserve. Nevertheless here they are:

This Gold Cup has echoes of the 2010 Met in it for me. Whilst everyone waxes lyrical about Kauto Star and Denman they both appear to have the same hurdle (pardon the pun) to overcome that effectively seemed to trip up Pocket Power earlier this year - advancing age.

Taking 8/13 or worse about the 10 year old Kauto Star looks pretty close to being either an act of great courage or madness. I think the latter. Denman at 7/2 is a great deal more realistic although you need to overlook his extremely poor last outing to plonk down your cash.

I went back to 1960 to see how older horses have fared in the Gold Cup. Suddenly 13/8 Kauto Star looked a great deal more realistic than 8/13. Here's the 'tale of the tape' :

Winners Aged 11+..........................2 ....................4%
Winners Aged 10............................8...................16%
Winners Aged 9.............................11..................22%
Winners Aged 8.............................13..................26%
Winners Aged 7.............................14..................28%
Winners Aged 6.............................1.....................2%

The renewals total only 49 because the race was not run in 2001 due to foot and mouth and the percentages are rounded for the same reason

The figures change somewhat if we only review the 'modern era' - ie the last 21 years comprising 20 renewals.

Winners Aged 11+..........................0
Winners Aged 10............................3...................15%
Winners Aged 9..............................7...................35%
Winners Aged 8..............................5...................25%
Winners Aged 7..............................5...................25%
Winners Aged 6..............................0

In summary the statistics suggest that you should look amongst the horses aged 7-9 for your winner. Denman has already sounded a warning that an older horse can put in an inexplicably bad run by completely losing his rythmn and then falling at his last outing. Kauto Star, too, used to regularly jump very poorly at the last fence. Both are ageing. It could get hairy and the pretenders will be waiting to pounce.

Nice post Garrick,Scotia`s sms`s have dried up already,too much Champagne?

hibernia Wrote:

---

> Last day at Cheltenham today and it`d Gold Cup
> day,can`t see Kauto having any Chinks in his
> armour and the field looks quite weak,so it`s
> Kauto all the way for me.Cheltenham Card
>
>
> Race 1 : Strong on Alavain was very impressed
> when seen him winning last time..
>
> Race 2 : No2son fancies Eradicate and he is the
> first person i ask `what you fancy this year at
> Cheltenham` so will stick with this one.
>
> Race 3 : Tell Massini in injured Sam Thomas was
> suicidal at missing this ride at Cheltenham.
>
> Race 4 : Kauto Star from Tricky Trickster
>
> Race 5 : pass
>
> Race 6 : Balthazar King hobbs team are flying
> this week,it`s a conditionala race but im sure
> Reece Flint lost his claim last week.
>
> Race 7 : Pigeon Island to run a place at a big
> price..
>
> Goodluck if your taking part..

now i remember why i gave up itll be another two years before i have another bet no2son signing off goodnight and goodbye

Everything happened to fast for him,will win a big one

Hope Kauto is ok..

8-)Well done to the odds on favourite for falling... ..(Irony alert, not to be taken seriously). And yes, Kauto seems fine.

There we go, to be fair Kauto was never in the race after he screwed up his jump on the 8th fence.

Thats racing as they say and it just goes to show once again if the price is too short its simply not worth taking, regardless of what you think will happen.

The UK bookies can all retire now after what must be their best festival in years...