Consequences of jetlag and insomnia... probably a little long-winded, apologies for that... chapter 2
R1 Unless there is a decent first timer, of whom I like Road Trip best, then this looks good for Judicial who made a fair debut, Fradd now riding and looks the obvious one despite a poor draw. Selection... Judicial x Road Trip
R2 Dover Beach has drawn badly again, though that was also the case on her decent debut effort and with jockey and trainer in top form, this one may be hard to beat. King's Rose who was over 5 lengths back in third has franked the form by winning her subsequent outing by 3 lengths. There are a couple better drawn though who may well feature in the finish in Casual (2.5 lengths behind Kings Rose over 1160) and Magroora. Both were noted making late progress on debut over shorter and may well improve for the step up in distance. Selection... Dover Beach x Magroora x Casual
R3 Madame Carla was slow away on debut scuppering the betting support which took her from 10s all the way in to 13/10 fav. With PS now booked it seems wise to follow (have done a treble on the first three favs). Shiver n Shake also found some support on debut and from a bad draw did well to finish in silver on the inside track. Tacit Tiger has form too and they seem likely to be the three fighting out the finish. Madame Carla x Shiver n Shake x Tacit Tiger
R4 Poor. Rodeo Sioux may well improve for the trip but with PS up is too short in the market for me. Not a lot in the opposition though. Pretty Lady seemed not to enjoy blinkers and was poorly drawn last time, ignoring the last two runs there is some previous form and has place chances. Red Oak showed improvement last time and is on 3rd run after a rest with a couple of fair efforts in her 29 maiden starts. The two though that I will have small and very small e/w plays on respectively are Asiatic Pearl and Queen Charlotte. The former comes out of the 1 box, tries blinkers and has found betting support in 2/3 of her turf runs. Yet to try the course, she may prefer the turn to the straight at Vaal. Definitely not one I have confidence about but in a poor field if she can start better than last time, she may well prove better than the majority of these. Queen Charlotte has seemingly had her problems since an average start to her career. However, there were signs of an improvement in her last run and if she comes on for that and the blinkers help then again, she may well show she is better than much of the opposition. She again has the worst draw but 4 of the six who beat her in that last run are now winners and one other has been top 4 in all 3 subsequent runs. "With prayers" selection for a big pay... Asiatic Pearl x Queen Charlotte x Pretty Lady
R5 Fairly open. Two Gun Kid and Paintyourface would come in for greater consideration on a different course. Grey's Anatomy must have a good chance especially from the 1 box but may need a run back in Gauteng. I'm leaving out Flaming Forge and Any Flag on the basis of their wide draws but again, chances. Millennium Wind not discounted lightly. The two I will be concentrating on though are Luminous Love and Gentleman Jack. LL also does not have a good draw but has PS up and I think the drop back in distance will suit, he has won both starts at course and distance including one when drawn 14/14. Flaming F beat LL by 0.75 over 1800 but is 1.5 kg worse off. With FFs draw, I prefer LL. FF also beat GJ by 1.75 in their run behind StarSB and GJ also is 1.5kg better off now. The draw could be the crucial factor though, FF has gone from 4 to 17 while GJ has gone from 8 to 2. GJ has won on the course and at the prices seems fair e/w value. Selection... Gentleman Jack x Luminous Love x Greys Anatomy
R6 Difficult. Most of the runners usually race on the inside track or at the Vaal and there are few who seemingly like the course. The one exception is Rabadash but of course, sod's law, he has the second worst draw. Is 7/9 for top 3 finishes at the course including 2 wins and has a win and a silver from 2 c and d attempts. However, he did finish 2.25 lengths back of Emir when behind Isobar on the inside track. He is 2.5kgs better off but Emir is again coming out of the 1 box. That said, Emir has only one win and two 3rds in 13 course attempts but does have PS up. Not convinced City of Bells is in the best form but Fradd rides and if on form will have a good shout. So would Flag of France if not drawn worst of all. There are too many questions marks for me about Call The Challenge, I am not convinced by National Key at the distance and, despite the low weight, have similar thoughts over Beat The Odds. So, perhaps, more by default I ended up on Decameron despite Fradd being on Azzie's other runner. 1/1 at course (and d) and not the worst draw. Did finish 2.75 behind Emir in the Isobar race but that was 2nd run after a rest and this will be third, had the 2nd worst draw that day and is also 2.5kgs better off with Emir. Is 4/9 wins at the distance. Selection... Decameron x Emir x Rabadash
R7 Reign Victorious has been in excellent form of late and I will still stick with him. There are concerns about the distance though as I think he prefers 200 more. He has yet to win at this distance, but has 2 silver and 2 bronze from 5 attempts and has won over 1450. Also only 1 silver 2 bronze from 7 course attempts but most recent efforts have been good and is well drawn in 2. Impresa is likely to be the main danger. Yet to be unplaced in 3 course efforts, decent draw at 5 and good form if overlooking penultimate run. Jockey and trainer in top form. For third I'll go with Suetan to improve with the appie taking off a little weight. Tip A Champion is another with a chance. I might also have a small e/w idiot bet on Senator who is generally consistent and his last two runs on the inside track were from very poor draws. Unfortunately, he has not drawn well again but may be worth a small nibble. Selection... Reign Victorious x Impresa x Suetan
R8 Silent Angel is now a non-runner and the already-in reserve Miravar, who ran SA close twice recently, looks a good e/w bet to me from the 1 box. Caribbean Dream with PS up must have a good chance but the 12 draw slightly dampens her chances. Stunning Jet for the trifecta. Selection... Miravar x Caribbean Dream x Stunning Jet.
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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